0x19e5…d7cd

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x19e593662aa7fbcbfde0e7703b9dd0da59d6d7cd
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+15.1pp

ROI

+28%

Win rate

61% @ 45.9¢

Brier

0.175

Resolved

195

Avg size

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	50% (14/28)	+27%	28
Other	38% (6/16)	+29%	16
Economy	100% (1/1)	+15%	1

Politics28 bets
Hit rate
50% (14/28)
ROI
+27%
Other16 bets
Hit rate
38% (6/16)
ROI
+29%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+15%

Track record

47% hit · 21/45

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the next UK parliament by-election be called by September 30?	No	$4	9.8¢	Lost
Will Karishma Manzur be the Democratic nominee for Senate in New Hampshire?	Yes	$2	1.7¢	Lost
Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	$10	8.2¢	Lost
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 5%?	Under	$12	22.0¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$42	0.8¢	Lost
Will Grüne win the third-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	$10	14.0¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	Yes	$70	40.0¢	Won
Will Linke win at least 23% of all valid second votes?	Yes	$9	24.0¢	Won
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$360	74.5¢	Won
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$20	58.7¢	Won
Sao Paulo Open: Cadence Brace vs Solana Sierra	Cadence Brace	$100	21.9¢	Lost
Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	$104	51.6¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September?	No	$16	0.8¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	No	$0	84.0¢	Won
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Yes	$15	51.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$7	50.7¢	Won
Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	$4	87.0¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$195	77.5¢	Won
Will Grüne win between 17% and 20% of all valid second votes?	Yes	$5	19.0¢	Lost
Will Sweden Democrats (SD) win at least 20% of all valid votes?	No	$19	64.7¢	Won
Will Maura Sullivan be the Democratic nominee for NH-01?	Yes	$8	82.5¢	Lost
Will voter turnout be between 56% and 59% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$17	31.9¢	Lost
Will Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win between 30% and 33% of all valid votes?	Yes	$1	19.0¢	Lost
Berlin State Election: More Votes to CDU or AfD?	AfD	$13	30.4¢	Lost
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	$40	88.1¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$7	45.0¢	Lost
Will the Moderate Party (M) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Yes	$1	24.0¢	Won
Will voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	No	$61	71.8¢	Won
Will voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$2	17.0¢	Lost
Trump declassifies new UFO files by September 30?	Yes	$53	57.6¢	Won
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 22?	No	$53	65.2¢	Won
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 22?	Yes	$12	32.3¢	Lost
Will Grüne win between 5% and 7% of all valid second votes?	Yes	$3	65.0¢	Lost
Will voter turnout be between 59% and 62% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$29	61.6¢	Won
Will Linke win less than 8% of all valid second votes?	Yes	$12	29.5¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	No	$14	14.6¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	Yes	$86	61.6¢	Won
Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	$3	60.0¢	Won
Will Moderate Party (M) win at least 20% of all valid votes?	Yes	$3	50.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	No	$4	88.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$16	41.8¢	Won
Will Warsh say "Good Day" during September Press Conference?	No	$5	11.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	No	$12	81.3¢	Lost
Will Stefany Shaheen be the Democratic nominee for NH-01?	No	$4	83.0¢	Lost
Will Chris Pappas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in New Hampshire?	No	$1	2.3¢	Lost

Will the next UK parliament by-election be called by September 30?Lost
No$4 @ 9.8¢
Will Karishma Manzur be the Democratic nominee for Senate in New Hampshire?Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.7¢
Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?Lost
Yes$10 @ 8.2¢
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 5%?Won
Under$12 @ 22.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$42 @ 0.8¢
Will Grüne win the third-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Lost
Yes$10 @ 14.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Won
Yes$70 @ 40.0¢
Will Linke win at least 23% of all valid second votes?Won
Yes$9 @ 24.0¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Won
Yes$360 @ 74.5¢
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Won
Yes$20 @ 58.7¢
Sao Paulo Open: Cadence Brace vs Solana SierraLost
Cadence Brace$100 @ 21.9¢
Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?Won
Yes$104 @ 51.6¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September?Lost
No$16 @ 0.8¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?Won
No$0 @ 84.0¢
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?Lost
Yes$15 @ 51.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$7 @ 50.7¢
Fed rate hike in 2026?Won
Yes$4 @ 87.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$195 @ 77.5¢
Will Grüne win between 17% and 20% of all valid second votes?Lost
Yes$5 @ 19.0¢
Will Sweden Democrats (SD) win at least 20% of all valid votes?Won
No$19 @ 64.7¢
Will Maura Sullivan be the Democratic nominee for NH-01?Lost
Yes$8 @ 82.5¢
Will voter turnout be between 56% and 59% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?Lost
Yes$17 @ 31.9¢
Will Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win between 30% and 33% of all valid votes?Lost
Yes$1 @ 19.0¢
Berlin State Election: More Votes to CDU or AfD?Lost
AfD$13 @ 30.4¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Won
No$40 @ 88.1¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$7 @ 45.0¢
Will the Moderate Party (M) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?Won
Yes$1 @ 24.0¢
Will voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?Won
No$61 @ 71.8¢
Will voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?Lost
Yes$2 @ 17.0¢
Trump declassifies new UFO files by September 30?Won
Yes$53 @ 57.6¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 22?Won
No$53 @ 65.2¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 22?Lost
Yes$12 @ 32.3¢
Will Grüne win between 5% and 7% of all valid second votes?Lost
Yes$3 @ 65.0¢
Will voter turnout be between 59% and 62% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?Won
Yes$29 @ 61.6¢
Will Linke win less than 8% of all valid second votes?Won
Yes$12 @ 29.5¢
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?Lost
No$14 @ 14.6¢
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?Won
Yes$86 @ 61.6¢
Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Won
Yes$3 @ 60.0¢
Will Moderate Party (M) win at least 20% of all valid votes?Lost
Yes$3 @ 50.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?Lost
No$4 @ 88.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?Won
Yes$16 @ 41.8¢
Will Warsh say "Good Day" during September Press Conference?Lost
No$5 @ 11.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?Lost
No$12 @ 81.3¢
Will Stefany Shaheen be the Democratic nominee for NH-01?Lost
No$4 @ 83.0¢
Will Chris Pappas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in New Hampshire?Lost
No$1 @ 2.3¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$185	53.9¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$88	61.1¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$81	54.7¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$69	61.0¢
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$56	21.8¢
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?	Politics	Yes	$56	45.0¢
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$53	5.9¢
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$48	68.0¢
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$42	46.0¢
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$39	68.0¢
Will Alexandre Guimarães win the second-most votes in the 2026 Tocantins Senate election?	Politics	Yes	$32	44.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$26	33.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$25	21.1¢
Alofoke forms party in DR by June 30, 2027?	Politics	No	$23	43.7¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	No	$21	71.0¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?	Politics	No	$18	16.7¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Politics	No	$15	52.7¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	Politics	No	$15	36.2¢
EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by October 31?	Politics	No	$13	47.0¢
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Politics	Yes	$12	39.9¢
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	Yes	$10	0.1¢
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026	Politics	Yes	$10	5.8¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Politics	No	$10	48.5¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$9	31.7¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$9	19.9¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$8	7.3¢
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$8	81.0¢
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$8	80.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$7	9.0¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$7	85.0¢

Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
Yes$185 @ 53.9¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$88 @ 61.1¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$81 @ 54.7¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$69 @ 61.0¢
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$56 @ 21.8¢
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?Politics
Yes$56 @ 45.0¢
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
Yes$53 @ 5.9¢
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$48 @ 68.0¢
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?Tech
No$42 @ 46.0¢
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$39 @ 68.0¢
Will Alexandre Guimarães win the second-most votes in the 2026 Tocantins Senate election?Politics
Yes$32 @ 44.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$26 @ 33.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?Politics
Yes$25 @ 21.1¢
Alofoke forms party in DR by June 30, 2027?Politics
No$23 @ 43.7¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
No$21 @ 71.0¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?Politics
No$18 @ 16.7¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Politics
No$15 @ 52.7¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?Politics
No$15 @ 36.2¢
EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by October 31?Politics
No$13 @ 47.0¢
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Politics
Yes$12 @ 39.9¢
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
Yes$10 @ 0.1¢
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026Politics
Yes$10 @ 5.8¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Politics
No$10 @ 48.5¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?Politics
Yes$9 @ 31.7¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$9 @ 19.9¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?Politics
Yes$8 @ 7.3¢
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?Politics
No$8 @ 81.0¢
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$8 @ 80.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$7 @ 9.0¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?Geopolitics
No$7 @ 85.0¢