0x198a…3ca3

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x198a843b90e1a52d573c6021e2bd6c5d1a093ca3
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+8.7pp

ROI

+13%

Win rate

80% @ 71.4¢

Brier

0.125

Resolved

357

Avg size

$129

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	82% (54/66)	-25%	66
Politics	89% (34/38)	+19%	38
Geopolitics	100% (15/15)	+25%	15
Tech	100% (3/3)	+28%	3
Sports	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Economy	100% (1/1)	+29%	1
Crypto	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other66 bets
Hit rate
82% (54/66)
ROI
-25%
Politics38 bets
Hit rate
89% (34/38)
ROI
+19%
Geopolitics15 bets
Hit rate
100% (15/15)
ROI
+25%
Tech3 bets
Hit rate
100% (3/3)
ROI
+28%
Sports2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+29%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

85% hit · 107/126

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?	No	$83	83.0¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	No	$168	83.0¢	Won
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?	Yes	$56	79.2¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	Yes	$20	20.0¢	Won
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by June 30, 2026?	No	$95	89.0¢	Won
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?	No	$274	68.5¢	Won
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	No	$87	87.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$80	80.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	No	$109	54.2¢	Won
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?	No	$210	52.4¢	Won
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?	No	$89	89.0¢	Won
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	Yes	$348	69.6¢	Won
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	$124	62.0¢	Won
Iran coup attempt by June 30?	No	$144	72.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	No	$297	74.3¢	Won
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	$157	51.4¢	Lost
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	Yes	$839	83.9¢	Won
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	No	$86	86.0¢	Won
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	Yes	$154	77.0¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?	No	$74	74.0¢	Won
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?	No	$89	89.0¢	Won
Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	$85	85.0¢	Won
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?	No	$88	87.6¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$1.0k	75.4¢	Won
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by April 30?	No	$56	56.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	No	$502	83.3¢	Won
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$73	71.0¢	Won
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 375M by May 1?	No	$80	80.0¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?	Yes	$127	62.7¢	Won
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	$3.0k	84.7¢	Won
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	Yes	$433	86.6¢	Lost
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?	No	$960	87.3¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	No	$294	9.2¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	Yes	$3.8k	89.2¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$196	65.4¢	Won
Will Iran strike Habshan Field or any Processing Plants of the Habshan Complex by April 30?	No	$72	72.0¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	Yes	$81	81.4¢	Won
Will any U.S. House member enter Iran by June 30?	No	$194	87.6¢	Won
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	$156	77.5¢	Won
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?	No	$234	78.0¢	Lost
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?	Yes	$63	63.3¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	No	$1.5k	85.6¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$170	56.7¢	Won
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by April 30, 2026?	No	$44	87.0¢	Won
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$154	77.0¢	Won
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	$166	83.1¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?	No	$346	86.5¢	Won
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	$87	87.0¢	Won
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	$85	85.0¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	$527	35.1¢	Lost

US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?Won
No$83 @ 83.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?Won
No$168 @ 83.0¢
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?Won
Yes$56 @ 79.2¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?Won
Yes$20 @ 20.0¢
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by June 30, 2026?Won
No$95 @ 89.0¢
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?Won
No$274 @ 68.5¢
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?Won
No$87 @ 87.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$80 @ 80.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?Won
No$109 @ 54.2¢
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?Won
No$210 @ 52.4¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?Won
No$89 @ 89.0¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?Won
Yes$348 @ 69.6¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Won
Yes$124 @ 62.0¢
Iran coup attempt by June 30?Won
No$144 @ 72.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?Won
No$297 @ 74.3¢
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?Lost
Yes$157 @ 51.4¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?Won
Yes$839 @ 83.9¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?Won
No$86 @ 86.0¢
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?Won
Yes$154 @ 77.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?Won
No$74 @ 74.0¢
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?Won
No$89 @ 89.0¢
Iran leadership change by May 31?Won
No$85 @ 85.0¢
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?Won
No$88 @ 87.6¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$1.0k @ 75.4¢
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by April 30?Won
No$56 @ 56.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?Won
No$502 @ 83.3¢
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$73 @ 71.0¢
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 375M by May 1?Won
No$80 @ 80.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?Won
Yes$127 @ 62.7¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?Won
No$3.0k @ 84.7¢
Will Trump visit China by April 30?Lost
Yes$433 @ 86.6¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?Won
No$960 @ 87.3¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Lost
No$294 @ 9.2¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Won
Yes$3.8k @ 89.2¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
No$196 @ 65.4¢
Will Iran strike Habshan Field or any Processing Plants of the Habshan Complex by April 30?Won
No$72 @ 72.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?Won
Yes$81 @ 81.4¢
Will any U.S. House member enter Iran by June 30?Won
No$194 @ 87.6¢
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Won
No$156 @ 77.5¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?Lost
No$234 @ 78.0¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?Won
Yes$63 @ 63.3¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?Won
No$1.5k @ 85.6¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$170 @ 56.7¢
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by April 30, 2026?Won
No$44 @ 87.0¢
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?Won
Yes$154 @ 77.0¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Won
No$166 @ 83.1¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?Won
No$346 @ 86.5¢
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?Won
No$87 @ 87.0¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Won
No$85 @ 85.0¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Lost
No$527 @ 35.1¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$7.5k	50.0¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	No	$7.5k	50.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	No	$4.1k	82.6¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$3.4k	84.7¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$3.1k	78.5¢
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$2.7k	89.7¢
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	Politics	No	$1.9k	93.4¢
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$1.9k	93.0¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$1.8k	90.0¢
Trump out as President before 2027?	Politics	No	$1.8k	89.9¢
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	Politics	No	$1.8k	88.1¢
Iran Nuke before 2027?	Politics	No	$1.6k	91.9¢
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in July?	—	No	$1.0k	98.9¢
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in July?	—	No	$995	98.2¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Geopolitics	No	$970	94.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?	—	No	$968	96.8¢
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Politics	No	$945	94.5¢
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$943	94.1¢
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	—	No	$930	93.0¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$886	87.1¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Other	No	$862	86.1¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?	—	No	$815	88.3¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$681	68.1¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$678	84.5¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July?	—	No	$629	96.5¢
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$618	92.6¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$615	76.9¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Politics	Yes	$586	58.6¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in July?	—	No	$567	94.5¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in July?	—	No	$496	99.2¢

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$7.5k @ 50.0¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
No$7.5k @ 50.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
No$4.1k @ 82.6¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?Geopolitics
No$3.4k @ 84.7¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$3.1k @ 78.5¢
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$2.7k @ 89.7¢
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?Politics
No$1.9k @ 93.4¢
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$1.9k @ 93.0¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$1.8k @ 90.0¢
Trump out as President before 2027?Politics
No$1.8k @ 89.9¢
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?Politics
No$1.8k @ 88.1¢
Iran Nuke before 2027?Politics
No$1.6k @ 91.9¢
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in July?—
No$1.0k @ 98.9¢
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in July?—
No$995 @ 98.2¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?Geopolitics
No$970 @ 94.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?—
No$968 @ 96.8¢
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Politics
No$945 @ 94.5¢
Xi Jinping out before 2027?Geopolitics
No$943 @ 94.1¢
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?—
No$930 @ 93.0¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?Geopolitics
No$886 @ 87.1¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?Other
No$862 @ 86.1¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?—
No$815 @ 88.3¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
Yes$681 @ 68.1¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$678 @ 84.5¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July?—
No$629 @ 96.5¢
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?Geopolitics
No$618 @ 92.6¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
Yes$615 @ 76.9¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Politics
Yes$586 @ 58.6¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in July?—
No$567 @ 94.5¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in July?—
No$496 @ 99.2¢