0x18ab…bae4

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x18abbfdb265d3221669cd1fabc0b2d00890bbae4
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+14.0pp

ROI

+20%

Win rate

74% @ 59.7¢

Brier

0.125

Resolved

110

Avg size

$90

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	73% (22/30)	+21%	30
Politics	67% (4/6)	+0%	6
Sports	20% (1/5)	-15%	5
Tech	100% (2/2)	+25%	2
Geopolitics	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+1%	1

Other30 bets
Hit rate
73% (22/30)
ROI
+21%
Politics6 bets
Hit rate
67% (4/6)
ROI
+0%
Sports5 bets
Hit rate
20% (1/5)
ROI
-15%
Tech2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+25%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+1%

Track record

67% hit · 30/45

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30?	No	$789	99.3¢	Won
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by September 30, 2026?	No	$208	99.1¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	No	$78	78.5¢	Won
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$33	16.0¢	Lost
SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO?	Yes	$84	84.4¢	Won
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	$7	67.0¢	Won
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June?	Yes	$110	55.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31?	Yes	$200	68.5¢	Lost
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15?	Yes	$500	48.0¢	Won
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election?	No	$346	86.6¢	Won
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$13	12.6¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	No	$162	81.0¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?	No	$352	88.0¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March?	No	$177	88.5¢	Won
Xi Jinping out by June 30?	Yes	$11	1.1¢	Lost
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$7	7.2¢	Lost
Will Solana reach $230 in November?	Yes	$202	74.7¢	Won
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $150k first?	80k	$416	83.2¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	No	$356	89.0¢	Won
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025?	No	$390	78.0¢	Won
Will Ethereum reach $3,250 in November?	Yes	$136	68.0¢	Won
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$14	13.7¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in November?	Yes	$607	81.0¢	Won
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$53	26.2¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?	Yes	$916	83.3¢	Won
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31?	Yes	$515	85.8¢	Won
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?	Yes	$500	43.0¢	Lost
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 in November?	Yes	$627	70.9¢	Won
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?	No	$5	0.1¢	Lost
Iran leadership change by April 30?	Yes	$64	32.0¢	Lost
Will Ethereum hit $4,100.00 in December?	Yes	$400	88.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?	No	$156	78.0¢	Won
$WIF listed on Coinbase in 2024?	Yes	$15	31.0¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?	Yes	$121	79.4¢	Won
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	No	$21	21.0¢	Lost
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15?	No	$100	82.0¢	Won
Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025?	Yes	$220	27.5¢	Won
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on December 8?	No	$10	0.1¢	Lost
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?	Yes	$241	79.0¢	Won
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 23-29?	No	$80	40.0¢	Lost
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?	Yes	$500	75.0¢	Won
Will Solana reach $250 in November?	Yes	$263	76.0¢	Won
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?	Yes	$800	80.0¢	Won
Will Trump remove Harvard's Intl Student ban before July?	Yes	$88	44.0¢	Lost

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30?Won
No$789 @ 99.3¢
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by September 30, 2026?Won
No$208 @ 99.1¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Won
No$78 @ 78.5¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$33 @ 16.0¢
SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO?Won
Yes$84 @ 84.4¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Won
Yes$7 @ 67.0¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June?Lost
Yes$110 @ 55.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31?Lost
Yes$200 @ 68.5¢
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15?Won
Yes$500 @ 48.0¢
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election?Won
No$346 @ 86.6¢
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$13 @ 12.6¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Won
No$162 @ 81.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?Won
No$352 @ 88.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March?Won
No$177 @ 88.5¢
Xi Jinping out by June 30?Lost
Yes$11 @ 1.1¢
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$7 @ 7.2¢
Will Solana reach $230 in November?Won
Yes$202 @ 74.7¢
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $150k first?Won
80k$416 @ 83.2¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?Won
No$356 @ 89.0¢
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025?Won
No$390 @ 78.0¢
Will Ethereum reach $3,250 in November?Won
Yes$136 @ 68.0¢
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$14 @ 13.7¢
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in November?Won
Yes$607 @ 81.0¢
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$53 @ 26.2¢
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?Won
Yes$916 @ 83.3¢
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Won
Yes$515 @ 85.8¢
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?Lost
Yes$500 @ 43.0¢
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 in November?Won
Yes$627 @ 70.9¢
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?Lost
No$5 @ 0.1¢
Iran leadership change by April 30?Lost
Yes$64 @ 32.0¢
Will Ethereum hit $4,100.00 in December?Won
Yes$400 @ 88.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?Won
No$156 @ 78.0¢
$WIF listed on Coinbase in 2024?Won
Yes$15 @ 31.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?Won
Yes$121 @ 79.4¢
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Lost
No$21 @ 21.0¢
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15?Won
No$100 @ 82.0¢
Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025?Won
Yes$220 @ 27.5¢
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on December 8?Lost
No$10 @ 0.1¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?Won
Yes$241 @ 79.0¢
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 23-29?Lost
No$80 @ 40.0¢
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?Won
Yes$500 @ 75.0¢
Will Solana reach $250 in November?Won
Yes$263 @ 76.0¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?Won
Yes$800 @ 80.0¢
Will Trump remove Harvard's Intl Student ban before July?Lost
Yes$88 @ 44.0¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	Crypto	No	$9.2k	94.3¢
Iran Nuke before 2027?	Politics	No	$5.6k	95.2¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	No	$4.1k	93.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$3.1k	96.6¢
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$2.6k	40.8¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$2.0k	81.6¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$1.9k	26.3¢
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Politics	No	$1.5k	97.7¢
Will Ethereum reach $6,500 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$1.3k	95.0¢
Trump out as President before 2027?	Politics	No	$1.1k	92.8¢
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Politics	Yes	$963	96.2¢
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$950	95.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$940	94.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$909	96.4¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December?	Other	No	$681	95.0¢
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Politics	No	$611	75.9¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$567	85.0¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?	Other	No	$534	89.0¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$483	19.8¢
Will the Republicans win the Delaware Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$480	96.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$475	95.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$450	90.0¢
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$450	90.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$357	91.0¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$342	14.0¢
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?	Politics	No	$320	95.2¢
Will Ethereum reach $5,500 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$288	96.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-28 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$283	94.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$279	93.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$273	92.0¢

Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?Crypto
No$9.2k @ 94.3¢
Iran Nuke before 2027?Politics
No$5.6k @ 95.2¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
No$4.1k @ 93.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$3.1k @ 96.6¢
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$2.6k @ 40.8¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$2.0k @ 81.6¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$1.9k @ 26.3¢
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
No$1.5k @ 97.7¢
Will Ethereum reach $6,500 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$1.3k @ 95.0¢
Trump out as President before 2027?Politics
No$1.1k @ 92.8¢
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?Politics
Yes$963 @ 96.2¢
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$950 @ 95.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$940 @ 94.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$909 @ 96.4¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December?Other
No$681 @ 95.0¢
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Politics
No$611 @ 75.9¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$567 @ 85.0¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?Other
No$534 @ 89.0¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$483 @ 19.8¢
Will the Republicans win the Delaware Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$480 @ 96.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$475 @ 95.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$450 @ 90.0¢
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$450 @ 90.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$357 @ 91.0¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$342 @ 14.0¢
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?Politics
No$320 @ 95.2¢
Will Ethereum reach $5,500 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$288 @ 96.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-28 House seat?Politics
Yes$283 @ 94.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$279 @ 93.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$273 @ 92.0¢