0x1851…ae47

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x18510d997eba5b8a0102bad7307e70e32bc4ae47
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+1.9pp

ROI

+32%

Win rate

9% @ 6.7¢

Brier

0.060

Resolved

5384

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	17% (100/573)	+52%	573
Politics	10% (19/193)	-40%	193
Geopolitics	7% (4/58)	-87%	58
Sports	30% (7/23)	+49%	23
Science	10% (2/21)	+1279%	21
Crypto	31% (4/13)	-3%	13
Tech	29% (2/7)	-16%	7
Economy	0% (0/3)	-100%	3
Culture	33% (1/3)	-33%	3

Other573 bets
Hit rate
17% (100/573)
ROI
+52%
Politics193 bets
Hit rate
10% (19/193)
ROI
-40%
Geopolitics58 bets
Hit rate
7% (4/58)
ROI
-87%
Sports23 bets
Hit rate
30% (7/23)
ROI
+49%
Science21 bets
Hit rate
10% (2/21)
ROI
+1279%
Crypto13 bets
Hit rate
31% (4/13)
ROI
-3%
Tech7 bets
Hit rate
29% (2/7)
ROI
-16%
Economy3 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/3)
ROI
-100%
Culture3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-33%

Track record

16% hit · 139/894

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?	Yes	$56	5.4¢	Lost
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 10, 2026?	No	$26	11.9¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?	Yes	$25	0.8¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	Yes	$27	9.0¢	Lost
Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?	No	$31	2.7¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?	Yes	$10	1.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	Yes	$21	21.0¢	Won
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?	No	$8	4.0¢	Lost
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?	No	$29	0.6¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$31	1.8¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on April 17?	Yes	$3	81.0¢	Won
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 3, 2026?	No	$74	3.1¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Mine" during Fox interview on Wednesday?	No	$7	29.2¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$103	5.8¢	Lost
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19?	Yes	$20	60.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 25?	No	$1	0.2¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 3?	No	$59	17.1¢	Won
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C or higher on May 16?	Yes	$1	0.2¢	Lost
Will "Canada" or "Canadian" be said on the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	No	$3	5.5¢	Lost
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$7	2.5¢	Lost
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	$10	33.0¢	Lost
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	$156	1.1¢	Lost
Will there be 5 or fewer US strikes on Somalia in March 2026?	Yes	$32	12.1¢	Lost
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 25, 2026?	No	$33	6.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 4?	No	$57	10.8¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 4?	Yes	$38	11.4¢	Won
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	Yes	$5	5.3¢	Lost
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	Yes	$5	1.3¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?	No	$20	7.3¢	Lost
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	Yes	$59	5.9¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on May 27?	Yes	$5	0.4¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 13?	No	$2	10.0¢	Lost
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 19, 2026?	No	$12	0.6¢	Lost
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on September 19?	Yes	$34	0.4¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 20?	No	$10	3.5¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 18?	Yes	$30	1.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on April 6?	Yes	$4	0.1¢	Lost
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	$2	24.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$171	3.6¢	Lost
Will Bernie and Mamdani's remarks not air?	Yes	$6	1.4¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	No	$10	5.0¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	$16	0.8¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C or below on April 7?	No	$72	55.2¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 21?	No	$15	1.0¢	Lost
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 28, 2026?	No	$4	2.9¢	Lost
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?	Yes	$49	0.8¢	Lost
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	No	$14	13.8¢	Lost
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?	No	$9	0.9¢	Lost
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 10, 2026?	Yes	$19	3.5¢	Lost
Will Trump say "American Dream" during TPUSA events on April 17?	Yes	$9	30.0¢	Lost

Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?Lost
Yes$56 @ 5.4¢
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 10, 2026?Won
No$26 @ 11.9¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?Lost
Yes$25 @ 0.8¢
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?Lost
Yes$27 @ 9.0¢
Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?Lost
No$31 @ 2.7¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?Lost
Yes$10 @ 1.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Won
Yes$21 @ 21.0¢
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?Lost
No$8 @ 4.0¢
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?Lost
No$29 @ 0.6¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$31 @ 1.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on April 17?Won
Yes$3 @ 81.0¢
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 3, 2026?Lost
No$74 @ 3.1¢
Will Trump say "Mine" during Fox interview on Wednesday?Won
No$7 @ 29.2¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$103 @ 5.8¢
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19?Lost
Yes$20 @ 60.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 25?Lost
No$1 @ 0.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 3?Won
No$59 @ 17.1¢
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C or higher on May 16?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.2¢
Will "Canada" or "Canadian" be said on the Lemonade Stand Podcast?Lost
No$3 @ 5.5¢
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$7 @ 2.5¢
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?Lost
Yes$10 @ 33.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?Lost
Yes$156 @ 1.1¢
Will there be 5 or fewer US strikes on Somalia in March 2026?Lost
Yes$32 @ 12.1¢
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 25, 2026?Lost
No$33 @ 6.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 4?Lost
No$57 @ 10.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 4?Won
Yes$38 @ 11.4¢
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?Lost
Yes$5 @ 5.3¢
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?Lost
Yes$5 @ 1.3¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?Lost
No$20 @ 7.3¢
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?Lost
Yes$59 @ 5.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on May 27?Lost
Yes$5 @ 0.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 13?Lost
No$2 @ 10.0¢
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 19, 2026?Lost
No$12 @ 0.6¢
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on September 19?Lost
Yes$34 @ 0.4¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 20?Lost
No$10 @ 3.5¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 18?Lost
Yes$30 @ 1.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on April 6?Lost
Yes$4 @ 0.1¢
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Won
No$2 @ 24.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$171 @ 3.6¢
Will Bernie and Mamdani's remarks not air?Lost
Yes$6 @ 1.4¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Won
No$10 @ 5.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Lost
Yes$16 @ 0.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C or below on April 7?Won
No$72 @ 55.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 21?Lost
No$15 @ 1.0¢
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 28, 2026?Lost
No$4 @ 2.9¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?Lost
Yes$49 @ 0.8¢
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?Lost
No$14 @ 13.8¢
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?Lost
No$9 @ 0.9¢
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 10, 2026?Lost
Yes$19 @ 3.5¢
Will Trump say "American Dream" during TPUSA events on April 17?Lost
Yes$9 @ 30.0¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Russia target Kyiv on September 12, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$392	70.1¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Politics	No	$337	12.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$255	10.2¢
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on September 26?	Crypto	Yes	$193	2.8¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Geopolitics	No	$162	5.5¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$140	2.8¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$124	8.3¢
Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Fay?	Science	Yes	$108	11.5¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	Geopolitics	Yes	$106	0.9¢
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$99	9.9¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?	Politics	No	$60	6.3¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September?	Other	Yes	$60	29.4¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on September 28?	Crypto	Yes	$50	5.0¢
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by September 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$49	5.3¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?	Other	Yes	$43	15.5¢
Will XRP reach $1.80 in September?	Crypto	Yes	$40	19.1¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in September?	Other	Yes	$38	8.1¢
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$36	0.9¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in September?	Other	Yes	$30	4.8¢
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$27	0.5¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on September 26?	Crypto	Yes	$26	13.0¢
Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan by end of summit?	Politics	Yes	$26	2.6¢
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$22	11.0¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$21	4.3¢
Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$14	0.2¢
Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$12	6.0¢
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$10	9.9¢
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$10	0.2¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$4	3.6¢
Will Trump endorse Yashar in the 2026 Israeli Election?	Politics	Yes	$0	0.8¢

Will Russia target Kyiv on September 12, 2026?Geopolitics
No$392 @ 70.1¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Politics
No$337 @ 12.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$255 @ 10.2¢
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on September 26?Crypto
Yes$193 @ 2.8¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Geopolitics
No$162 @ 5.5¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$140 @ 2.8¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Politics
Yes$124 @ 8.3¢
Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Fay?Science
Yes$108 @ 11.5¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?Geopolitics
Yes$106 @ 0.9¢
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?Politics
Yes$99 @ 9.9¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?Politics
No$60 @ 6.3¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September?Other
Yes$60 @ 29.4¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on September 28?Crypto
Yes$50 @ 5.0¢
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by September 30, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$49 @ 5.3¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?Other
Yes$43 @ 15.5¢
Will XRP reach $1.80 in September?Crypto
Yes$40 @ 19.1¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in September?Other
Yes$38 @ 8.1¢
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$36 @ 0.9¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in September?Other
Yes$30 @ 4.8¢
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$27 @ 0.5¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on September 26?Crypto
Yes$26 @ 13.0¢
Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan by end of summit?Politics
Yes$26 @ 2.6¢
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027?Politics
Yes$22 @ 11.0¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30?Politics
Yes$21 @ 4.3¢
Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
Yes$14 @ 0.2¢
Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before 2027?Politics
Yes$12 @ 6.0¢
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?Politics
Yes$10 @ 9.9¢
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$10 @ 0.2¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$4 @ 3.6¢
Will Trump endorse Yashar in the 2026 Israeli Election?Politics
Yes$0 @ 0.8¢