0x1851…ae47

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x18510d997eba5b8a0102bad7307e70e32bc4ae47
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+8.5pp

ROI

+483%

Win rate

12% @ 3.2¢

Brier

0.104

Resolved

293

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	7% (8/107)	-46%	107
Politics	6% (4/70)	-9%	70
Science	8% (1/12)	+1999%	12
Geopolitics	0% (0/9)	-100%	9
Sports	38% (3/8)	+57%	8
Tech	40% (2/5)	+47%	5
Economy	0% (0/3)	-100%	3
Crypto	50% (1/2)	-3%	2
Culture	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other107 bets
Hit rate
7% (8/107)
ROI
-46%
Politics70 bets
Hit rate
6% (4/70)
ROI
-9%
Science12 bets
Hit rate
8% (1/12)
ROI
+1999%
Geopolitics9 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/9)
ROI
-100%
Sports8 bets
Hit rate
38% (3/8)
ROI
+57%
Tech5 bets
Hit rate
40% (2/5)
ROI
+47%
Economy3 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/3)
ROI
-100%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-3%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

9% hit · 19/217

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 25?	No	$1	0.2¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	$12	1.2¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$146	0.9¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 21?	No	$5	0.9¢	Lost
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	$20	17.4¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 29?	Yes	$9	0.8¢	Lost
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%?	Yes	$1	0.2¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026?	Yes	$10	9.3¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 22?	Yes	$6	12.0¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?	Yes	$10	0.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on June 19?	Yes	$47	2.0¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	$118	7.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 28?	No	$8	15.7¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 22?	No	$2	3.0¢	Lost
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?	Yes	$30	10.0¢	Won
Alien abduction at Brazil vs Scotland game in Miami?	Yes	$20	0.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 22?	Yes	$5	9.2¢	Lost
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$15	3.9¢	Lost
Will "You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love - Olivia Rodrigo" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of July 4?	No	$1	1.1¢	Lost
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$5	0.5¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?	Yes	$12	0.6¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 22?	Yes	$1	3.5¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 21?	Yes	$2	4.0¢	Lost
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%?	Yes	$4	0.4¢	Lost
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$76	1.9¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 27?	No	$2	0.5¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 22?	Yes	$1	0.2¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or higher on June 29?	Yes	$3	0.2¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 28?	No	$2	0.4¢	Lost
Will Waymo launch in Nashville by June 30 2026?	Yes	$17	24.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 23?	No	$6	0.3¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Elon Musk by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$4	0.4¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 18?	Yes	$15	0.7¢	Lost
Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	$2	0.2¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 22?	Yes	$2	4.3¢	Lost
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%?	Yes	$1	0.2¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$6	0.6¢	Lost
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31?	Yes	$37	2.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 22?	Yes	$4	5.1¢	Lost
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$21	10.0¢	Lost
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	No	$16	0.3¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 22?	Yes	$4	3.6¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22?	No	$6	4.7¢	Lost
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30?	Yes	$50	5.2¢	Lost
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	No	$29	1.5¢	Won
Will Netanyahu wear a Yarmulke at next meeting with Trump?	No	$28	94.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16?	No	$4	0.2¢	Won
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16?	Yes	$11	3.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on July 22?	No	$0	0.3¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 13, 2026?	Yes	$78	0.6¢	Lost

Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 25?Lost
No$1 @ 0.2¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Lost
Yes$12 @ 1.2¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$146 @ 0.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 21?Lost
No$5 @ 0.9¢
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?Won
Yes$20 @ 17.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 29?Lost
Yes$9 @ 0.8¢
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.2¢
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 9.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 22?Lost
Yes$6 @ 12.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?Lost
Yes$10 @ 0.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on June 19?Lost
Yes$47 @ 2.0¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Lost
Yes$118 @ 7.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 28?Won
No$8 @ 15.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 22?Lost
No$2 @ 3.0¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Won
Yes$30 @ 10.0¢
Alien abduction at Brazil vs Scotland game in Miami?Lost
Yes$20 @ 0.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 22?Lost
Yes$5 @ 9.2¢
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$15 @ 3.9¢
Will "You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love - Olivia Rodrigo" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of July 4?Lost
No$1 @ 1.1¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 0.5¢
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?Lost
Yes$12 @ 0.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 22?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 21?Lost
Yes$2 @ 4.0¢
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%?Lost
Yes$4 @ 0.4¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$76 @ 1.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 27?Won
No$2 @ 0.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 22?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or higher on June 29?Lost
Yes$3 @ 0.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 28?Lost
No$2 @ 0.4¢
Will Waymo launch in Nashville by June 30 2026?Won
Yes$17 @ 24.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 23?Lost
No$6 @ 0.3¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Elon Musk by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 0.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 18?Lost
Yes$15 @ 0.7¢
Iran leadership change by June 30?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 22?Lost
Yes$2 @ 4.3¢
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.2¢
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$6 @ 0.6¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31?Lost
Yes$37 @ 2.0¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 22?Lost
Yes$4 @ 5.1¢
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$21 @ 10.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?Lost
No$16 @ 0.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 22?Lost
Yes$4 @ 3.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22?Lost
No$6 @ 4.7¢
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30?Lost
Yes$50 @ 5.2¢
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?Won
No$29 @ 1.5¢
Will Netanyahu wear a Yarmulke at next meeting with Trump?Won
No$28 @ 94.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16?Won
No$4 @ 0.2¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16?Lost
Yes$11 @ 3.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on July 22?Lost
No$0 @ 0.3¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 13, 2026?Lost
Yes$78 @ 0.6¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

Loading recent trades…

Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$169	16.7¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 13, 2026?	—	Yes	$109	1.0¢
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by August 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$92	14.3¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$88	4.6¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$70	14.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?	—	No	$64	4.9¢
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?	—	Yes	$60	28.7¢
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$39	19.5¢
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by September 30, 2026?	—	Yes	$39	7.8¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$38	25.5¢
Iran invades Kuwait by August 31?	—	Yes	$37	3.7¢
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$36	0.9¢
Will a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?	—	Yes	$35	7.0¢
Will Kai and Speed finish their Minecraft marathon by August 14?	—	No	$34	2.5¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on August 12, 2026?	—	Yes	$31	21.9¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026?	—	Yes	$30	3.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	—	Yes	$25	5.0¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	Geopolitics	Yes	$23	4.6¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$21	4.3¢
Will Russia target Kyiv by August 10, 2026?	—	Yes	$21	4.6¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?	—	Yes	$18	6.0¢
Will IShowSpeed attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?	—	Yes	$16	8.0¢
Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$14	0.2¢
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$12	12.2¢
Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$12	6.0¢
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by August 31?	Politics	Yes	$9	9.0¢
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 12, 2026?	—	Yes	$5	10.0¢
Will Kai or Speed have more in-game deaths?	—	Kai	$3	15.0¢

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
Yes$169 @ 16.7¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 13, 2026?—
Yes$109 @ 1.0¢
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by August 31, 2026?—
Yes$92 @ 14.3¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?Geopolitics
Yes$88 @ 4.6¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Politics
Yes$70 @ 14.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?—
No$64 @ 4.9¢
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?—
Yes$60 @ 28.7¢
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?Politics
Yes$39 @ 19.5¢
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by September 30, 2026?—
Yes$39 @ 7.8¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?—
Yes$38 @ 25.5¢
Iran invades Kuwait by August 31?—
Yes$37 @ 3.7¢
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$36 @ 0.9¢
Will a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?—
Yes$35 @ 7.0¢
Will Kai and Speed finish their Minecraft marathon by August 14?—
No$34 @ 2.5¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on August 12, 2026?—
Yes$31 @ 21.9¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026?—
Yes$30 @ 3.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?—
Yes$25 @ 5.0¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?Geopolitics
Yes$23 @ 4.6¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30?Politics
Yes$21 @ 4.3¢
Will Russia target Kyiv by August 10, 2026?—
Yes$21 @ 4.6¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?—
Yes$18 @ 6.0¢
Will IShowSpeed attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?—
Yes$16 @ 8.0¢
Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
Yes$14 @ 0.2¢
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$12 @ 12.2¢
Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before 2027?Politics
Yes$12 @ 6.0¢
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by August 31?Politics
Yes$9 @ 9.0¢
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 12, 2026?—
Yes$5 @ 10.0¢
Will Kai or Speed have more in-game deaths?—
Kai$3 @ 15.0¢