0x1851…ae47

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x18510d997eba5b8a0102bad7307e70e32bc4ae47
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+3.9pp

ROI

+145%

Win rate

8% @ 4.1¢

Brier

0.064

Resolved

440

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	7% (7/102)	-15%	102
Politics	6% (4/69)	-24%	69
Science	8% (1/12)	+1980%	12
Geopolitics	0% (0/9)	-100%	9
Sports	38% (3/8)	+47%	8
Tech	40% (2/5)	+47%	5
Economy	0% (0/3)	-100%	3
Crypto	50% (1/2)	-3%	2
Culture	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other102 bets
Hit rate
7% (7/102)
ROI
-15%
Politics69 bets
Hit rate
6% (4/69)
ROI
-24%
Science12 bets
Hit rate
8% (1/12)
ROI
+1980%
Geopolitics9 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/9)
ROI
-100%
Sports8 bets
Hit rate
38% (3/8)
ROI
+47%
Tech5 bets
Hit rate
40% (2/5)
ROI
+47%
Economy3 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/3)
ROI
-100%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-3%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

9% hit · 18/211

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 25?	No	$1	0.2¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?	No	$20	7.3¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$6	0.6¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	$16	0.8¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$89	5.6¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 21?	No	$5	0.9¢	Lost
Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?	Yes	$15	1.4¢	Lost
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	$20	17.4¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 7?	Yes	$0	2.1¢	Lost
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$107	3.3¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 29?	Yes	$1	1.4¢	Lost
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%?	Yes	$1	0.2¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026?	Yes	$10	9.3¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 22?	Yes	$6	12.0¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$41	21.2¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$160	1.0¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?	Yes	$17	0.2¢	Lost
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	Yes	$13	23.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on June 19?	Yes	$47	2.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 5?	Yes	$1	0.7¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	$4	0.4¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16?	No	$4	0.2¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	$289	5.7¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 28?	No	$8	15.7¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 5?	Yes	$4	1.4¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 22?	No	$2	3.0¢	Lost
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?	Yes	$30	10.0¢	Won
Israeli forces enter Beirut by June 30?	Yes	$35	7.7¢	Lost
Alien abduction at Brazil vs Scotland game in Miami?	Yes	$20	0.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 22?	Yes	$5	9.2¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 5?	Yes	$5	2.4¢	Lost
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$15	3.9¢	Lost
Will "You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love - Olivia Rodrigo" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of July 4?	No	$1	1.1¢	Lost
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$5	0.5¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 13, 2026?	Yes	$106	0.7¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?	Yes	$65	2.3¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 22?	Yes	$1	3.5¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 6?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 21?	Yes	$2	4.0¢	Lost
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	No	$4	3.7¢	Lost
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	$30	63.9¢	Won
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%?	Yes	$4	0.4¢	Lost
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	$16	3.1¢	Lost
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$494	4.2¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 27?	No	$2	0.5¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$105	3.9¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on June 3?	Yes	$6	0.6¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 22?	Yes	$1	0.2¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or higher on June 29?	Yes	$1	0.4¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16?	Yes	$11	3.0¢	Lost

Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 25?Lost
No$1 @ 0.2¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?Lost
No$20 @ 7.3¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$6 @ 0.6¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Lost
Yes$16 @ 0.8¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$89 @ 5.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 21?Lost
No$5 @ 0.9¢
Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Lost
Yes$15 @ 1.4¢
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?Won
Yes$20 @ 17.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 7?Lost
Yes$0 @ 2.1¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$107 @ 3.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 29?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.4¢
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.2¢
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 9.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 22?Lost
Yes$6 @ 12.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$41 @ 21.2¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$160 @ 1.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?Lost
Yes$17 @ 0.2¢
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?Lost
Yes$13 @ 23.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on June 19?Lost
Yes$47 @ 2.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 5?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.7¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?Lost
Yes$4 @ 0.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16?Won
No$4 @ 0.2¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Lost
Yes$289 @ 5.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 28?Won
No$8 @ 15.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 5?Lost
Yes$4 @ 1.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 22?Lost
No$2 @ 3.0¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Won
Yes$30 @ 10.0¢
Israeli forces enter Beirut by June 30?Lost
Yes$35 @ 7.7¢
Alien abduction at Brazil vs Scotland game in Miami?Lost
Yes$20 @ 0.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 22?Lost
Yes$5 @ 9.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 5?Lost
Yes$5 @ 2.4¢
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$15 @ 3.9¢
Will "You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love - Olivia Rodrigo" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of July 4?Lost
No$1 @ 1.1¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 0.5¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 13, 2026?Lost
Yes$106 @ 0.7¢
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?Lost
Yes$65 @ 2.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 22?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 6?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 21?Lost
Yes$2 @ 4.0¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?Lost
No$4 @ 3.7¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?Won
Yes$30 @ 63.9¢
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%?Lost
Yes$4 @ 0.4¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Lost
Yes$16 @ 3.1¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$494 @ 4.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 27?Won
No$2 @ 0.5¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$105 @ 3.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on June 3?Lost
Yes$6 @ 0.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 22?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or higher on June 29?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.4¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16?Lost
Yes$11 @ 3.0¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

Loading recent trades…

Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$494	4.2¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	Politics	Yes	$279	1.1¢
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$207	5.9¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Politics	Yes	$178	8.5¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?	Politics	Yes	$159	10.6¢
No one announced as next James Bond?	Culture	No	$107	3.2¢
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?	Politics	Yes	$107	1.9¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$105	3.3¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Politics	Yes	$89	5.5¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Politics	Yes	$78	13.4¢
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?	Politics	Yes	$76	15.1¢
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Science	Yes	$70	7.1¢
Will Qatar sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?	Politics	Yes	$67	13.4¢
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$67	4.5¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$66	8.2¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$66	6.6¢
Will Trump post "UFC" on Truth Social this week?	—	No	$64	4.8¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$56	6.2¢
Will Oman sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?	Politics	Yes	$55	13.8¢
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30?	Politics	Yes	$50	5.2¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$44	22.0¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31?	Politics	Yes	$39	3.9¢
Will Waymo operate in 11 cities on June 30 2026?	Tech	Yes	$35	10.0¢
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?	Politics	Yes	$35	12.8¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	Politics	Yes	$30	8.6¢
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?	Culture	Yes	$29	2.0¢
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$29	1.5¢
Will Saudi Arabia sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?	Politics	Yes	$25	11.2¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Politics	Yes	$24	1.2¢
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30?	Politics	Yes	$22	2.2¢

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$494 @ 4.2¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?Politics
Yes$279 @ 1.1¢
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$207 @ 5.9¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Politics
Yes$178 @ 8.5¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?Politics
Yes$159 @ 10.6¢
No one announced as next James Bond?Culture
No$107 @ 3.2¢
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?Politics
Yes$107 @ 1.9¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Politics
Yes$105 @ 3.3¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Politics
Yes$89 @ 5.5¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Politics
Yes$78 @ 13.4¢
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Politics
Yes$76 @ 15.1¢
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?Science
Yes$70 @ 7.1¢
Will Qatar sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?Politics
Yes$67 @ 13.4¢
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$67 @ 4.5¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$66 @ 8.2¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$66 @ 6.6¢
Will Trump post "UFC" on Truth Social this week?—
No$64 @ 4.8¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$56 @ 6.2¢
Will Oman sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?Politics
Yes$55 @ 13.8¢
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30?Politics
Yes$50 @ 5.2¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$44 @ 22.0¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31?Politics
Yes$39 @ 3.9¢
Will Waymo operate in 11 cities on June 30 2026?Tech
Yes$35 @ 10.0¢
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?Politics
Yes$35 @ 12.8¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?Politics
Yes$30 @ 8.6¢
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?Culture
Yes$29 @ 2.0¢
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?Politics
No$29 @ 1.5¢
Will Saudi Arabia sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?Politics
Yes$25 @ 11.2¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Politics
Yes$24 @ 1.2¢
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30?Politics
Yes$22 @ 2.2¢