0x162f…798d

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x162f6fff88a52864f2ecc9833e58089d5254798d
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+11.3pp

ROI

+93%

Win rate

49% @ 38.0¢

Brier

0.248

Resolved

3283

Avg size

$373

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	60% (52/87)	+122%	87
Geopolitics	63% (26/41)	-2%	41
Other	52% (13/25)	+16%	25
Sports	80% (8/10)	+3%	10
Tech	100% (1/1)	+4%	1
Economy	100% (1/1)	+54%	1
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+188%	1

Politics87 bets
Hit rate
60% (52/87)
ROI
+122%
Geopolitics41 bets
Hit rate
63% (26/41)
ROI
-2%
Other25 bets
Hit rate
52% (13/25)
ROI
+16%
Sports10 bets
Hit rate
80% (8/10)
ROI
+3%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+4%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+54%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+188%

Track record

61% hit · 102/166

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$5.1k	8.7¢	Lost
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	$3.9k	65.0¢	Won
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$8.6k	86.0¢	Won
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?	No	$3.5k	22.3¢	Lost
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$18.1k	32.5¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	$18.9k	65.7¢	Won
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?	Yes	$10.2k	59.0¢	Won
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by August 31?	Yes	$110	2.2¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	No	$9.2k	70.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$28.7k	86.9¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	$942	14.6¢	Won
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$1.6k	31.7¢	Won
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?	Yes	$25	19.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?	No	$729	33.9¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?	Yes	$14.2k	75.2¢	Won
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 3DMAX (BO3) - Logitech G Play Connect Playoffs	3DMAX	$2.1k	42.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?	No	$780	39.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	No	$11.5k	76.9¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	Yes	$11.5k	42.8¢	Won
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	No	$6.5k	81.0¢	Won
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	$53	24.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?	Yes	$4.4k	72.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	$19.4k	17.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?	No	$7.3k	83.6¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$819	8.3¢	Lost
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?	No	$1.6k	66.9¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	Yes	$4.1k	4.5¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	Yes	$2.0k	9.3¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$344	7.1¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	Yes	$227	35.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Yes	$660	3.3¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$16.8k	22.6¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?	Yes	$3.5k	3.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$4.0k	64.0¢	Won
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$95	64.0¢	Won
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	Yes	$9.7k	17.7¢	Lost
Will Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?	Yes	$270	27.0¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	Yes	$9.2k	22.8¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	$37.5k	49.6¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	Yes	$28.1k	32.6¢	Lost
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$2.8k	6.7¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	Yes	$9.6k	4.5¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$18.9k	17.0¢	Won
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$529	10.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$3.5k	74.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	Yes	$303	30.0¢	Lost
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?	Yes	$4.0k	70.0¢	Won
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	Yes	$6.1k	87.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$6	45.0¢	Won
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	$2.3k	29.1¢	Won

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$5.1k @ 8.7¢
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Won
No$3.9k @ 65.0¢
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$8.6k @ 86.0¢
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?Lost
No$3.5k @ 22.3¢
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$18.1k @ 32.5¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Won
Yes$18.9k @ 65.7¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?Won
Yes$10.2k @ 59.0¢
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by August 31?Lost
Yes$110 @ 2.2¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Won
No$9.2k @ 70.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$28.7k @ 86.9¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Won
Yes$942 @ 14.6¢
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?Won
Yes$1.6k @ 31.7¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?Lost
Yes$25 @ 19.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?Lost
No$729 @ 33.9¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?Won
Yes$14.2k @ 75.2¢
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 3DMAX (BO3) - Logitech G Play Connect PlayoffsWon
3DMAX$2.1k @ 42.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?Lost
No$780 @ 39.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Lost
No$11.5k @ 76.9¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Won
Yes$11.5k @ 42.8¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Won
No$6.5k @ 81.0¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?Won
No$53 @ 24.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?Won
Yes$4.4k @ 72.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
Yes$19.4k @ 17.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?Won
No$7.3k @ 83.6¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$819 @ 8.3¢
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?Won
No$1.6k @ 66.9¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$4.1k @ 4.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$2.0k @ 9.3¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$344 @ 7.1¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Won
Yes$227 @ 35.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?Lost
Yes$660 @ 3.3¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$16.8k @ 22.6¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?Lost
Yes$3.5k @ 3.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$4.0k @ 64.0¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Won
Yes$95 @ 64.0¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Lost
Yes$9.7k @ 17.7¢
Will Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?Lost
Yes$270 @ 27.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Lost
Yes$9.2k @ 22.8¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Won
Yes$37.5k @ 49.6¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$28.1k @ 32.6¢
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$2.8k @ 6.7¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Lost
Yes$9.6k @ 4.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$18.9k @ 17.0¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$529 @ 10.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$3.5k @ 74.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?Lost
Yes$303 @ 30.0¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?Won
Yes$4.0k @ 70.0¢
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Won
Yes$6.1k @ 87.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$6 @ 45.0¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?Won
Yes$2.3k @ 29.1¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$69.9k	84.7¢
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	No	$42.8k	83.9¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Politics	No	$33.1k	85.9¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$30.1k	65.1¢
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	No	$24.4k	99.4¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$23.9k	84.3¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$22.8k	25.9¢
Iran full airspace closure by September 30?	Geopolitics	No	$22.5k	81.8¢
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$21.7k	69.5¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	Politics	No	$21.0k	91.2¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Politics	Yes	$20.6k	49.7¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Politics	No	$19.2k	79.7¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Politics	Yes	$17.1k	90.0¢
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Politics	Yes	$15.4k	83.8¢
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	No	$14.6k	97.1¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$13.2k	69.2¢
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$12.6k	75.1¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$11.9k	28.9¢
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?	Politics	No	$8.9k	88.9¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$8.6k	84.3¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$7.8k	66.9¢
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$5.8k	64.5¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	Yes	$5.7k	57.4¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$5.6k	50.2¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Politics	Yes	$5.1k	45.4¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$5.0k	50.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Politics	No	$5.0k	88.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$4.7k	42.1¢
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$4.6k	78.0¢
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Politics	No	$4.6k	77.0¢

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$69.9k @ 84.7¢
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
No$42.8k @ 83.9¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Politics
No$33.1k @ 85.9¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$30.1k @ 65.1¢
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
No$24.4k @ 99.4¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$23.9k @ 84.3¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$22.8k @ 25.9¢
Iran full airspace closure by September 30?Geopolitics
No$22.5k @ 81.8¢
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?Geopolitics
No$21.7k @ 69.5¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HousePolitics
No$21.0k @ 91.2¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HousePolitics
Yes$20.6k @ 49.7¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Politics
No$19.2k @ 79.7¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Politics
Yes$17.1k @ 90.0¢
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Politics
Yes$15.4k @ 83.8¢
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
No$14.6k @ 97.1¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?Geopolitics
No$13.2k @ 69.2¢
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$12.6k @ 75.1¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$11.9k @ 28.9¢
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?Politics
No$8.9k @ 88.9¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$8.6k @ 84.3¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$7.8k @ 66.9¢
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$5.8k @ 64.5¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
Yes$5.7k @ 57.4¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$5.6k @ 50.2¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Politics
Yes$5.1k @ 45.4¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$5.0k @ 50.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Politics
No$5.0k @ 88.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$4.7k @ 42.1¢
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$4.6k @ 78.0¢
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Politics
No$4.6k @ 77.0¢