0x1544…38ef

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x1544956238a2d7d952ae25badc044822edc838ef
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+21.7pp

ROI

+34%

Win rate

73% @ 50.8¢

Brier

0.230

Resolved

Avg size

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	64% (7/11)	+28%	11
Other	0% (0/3)	-100%	3
Geopolitics	100% (2/2)	+21%	2
Tech	100% (1/1)	+25%	1
Sports	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Science	100% (1/1)	+17%	1
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+291%	1

Politics11 bets
Hit rate
64% (7/11)
ROI
+28%
Other3 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/3)
ROI
-100%
Geopolitics2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+21%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+25%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+17%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+291%

Track record

60% hit · 12/20

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?	No	$2	41.0¢	Won
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	Yes	$7	15.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?	No	$3	71.0¢	Lost
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30?	No	$3	80.0¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$23	25.6¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?	Yes	$13	15.4¢	Lost
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	$7	2.2¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	$27	77.0¢	Lost
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in May?	Yes	$17	85.2¢	Won
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	No	$3	40.0¢	Lost
Will there be between 5 and 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	No	$7	85.3¢	Won
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker?	Yes	$27	80.0¢	Won
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?	Yes	$4	3.8¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	$5	79.1¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	$38	75.1¢	Won
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?	No	$5	34.7¢	Lost
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	No	$28	55.3¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	No	$11	46.6¢	Lost
Will Russia enter Moskovka by May 31?	No	$5	84.0¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$54	79.0¢	Won

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?Won
No$2 @ 41.0¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Won
Yes$7 @ 15.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?Lost
No$3 @ 71.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30?Won
No$3 @ 80.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$23 @ 25.6¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?Lost
Yes$13 @ 15.4¢
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?Lost
Yes$7 @ 2.2¢
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?Lost
Yes$27 @ 77.0¢
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in May?Won
Yes$17 @ 85.2¢
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?Lost
No$3 @ 40.0¢
Will there be between 5 and 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?Won
No$7 @ 85.3¢
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker?Won
Yes$27 @ 80.0¢
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?Lost
Yes$4 @ 3.8¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?Won
No$5 @ 79.1¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Won
No$38 @ 75.1¢
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?Lost
No$5 @ 34.7¢
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Won
No$28 @ 55.3¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?Lost
No$11 @ 46.6¢
Will Russia enter Moskovka by May 31?Won
No$5 @ 84.0¢
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$54 @ 79.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$108	80.3¢
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$40	86.1¢
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	Politics	No	$16	93.4¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?	—	Yes	$6	16.1¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?—
Yes$108 @ 80.3¢
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$40 @ 86.1¢
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?Politics
No$16 @ 93.4¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?—
Yes$6 @ 16.1¢