0x1544…38ef

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x1544956238a2d7d952ae25badc044822edc838ef
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+17.8pp

ROI

+18%

Win rate

70% @ 52.6¢

Brier

0.212

Resolved

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	61% (11/18)	+22%	18
Other	47% (7/15)	-12%	15
Geopolitics	89% (8/9)	+37%	9
Tech	100% (1/1)	+25%	1
Sports	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Science	100% (1/1)	+17%	1
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+291%	1

Politics18 bets
Hit rate
61% (11/18)
ROI
+22%
Other15 bets
Hit rate
47% (7/15)
ROI
-12%
Geopolitics9 bets
Hit rate
89% (8/9)
ROI
+37%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+25%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+17%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+291%

Track record

63% hit · 29/46

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Michael Olise: 1+ shots	Yes	$4	99.8¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	Yes	$13	4.0¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?	No	$2	41.0¢	Won
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on May 21?	Yes	$2	84.0¢	Won
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	Yes	$7	15.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?	No	$3	71.0¢	Lost
Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by May 31?	No	$6	68.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 29, 2026?	No	$3	9.1¢	Lost
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$2	36.0¢	Won
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 26, 2026?	Yes	$1	82.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30?	No	$3	80.0¢	Won
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by June 8?	Yes	$26	57.6¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$23	25.6¢	Won
Will China announce a U.S. oil purchase by May 22?	Yes	$4	62.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?	Yes	$13	15.4¢	Lost
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	Yes	$104	51.0¢	Lost
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven	Usyk	$94	83.0¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	$25	22.0¢	Won
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	$7	2.2¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	$27	77.0¢	Lost
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in May?	Yes	$17	85.2¢	Won
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by June 30?	Yes	$2	64.0¢	Won
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$3	58.0¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$8	87.2¢	Won
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	No	$3	40.0¢	Lost
Will there be between 5 and 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	No	$7	85.3¢	Won
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker?	Yes	$27	80.0¢	Won
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?	Yes	$4	3.8¢	Lost
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$5	41.1¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	$5	79.1¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	$38	75.1¢	Won
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?	No	$5	34.7¢	Lost
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	No	$28	55.3¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	No	$11	46.6¢	Lost
Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by July 31, 2026?	No	$6	79.0¢	Lost
Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by December 31, 2026?	No	$9	52.8¢	Lost
Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$7	88.0¢	Won
Will Russia enter Moskovka by May 31?	No	$5	84.0¢	Won
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by December 31?	Yes	$4	44.8¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$54	79.0¢	Won
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 30?	Yes	$2	52.0¢	Won
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	$1	93.0¢	Won
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$15	76.7¢	Won
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$3	78.0¢	Won
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?	Yes	$8	65.1¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$6	16.1¢	Lost

Michael Olise: 1+ shotsLost
Yes$4 @ 99.8¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?Lost
Yes$13 @ 4.0¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?Won
No$2 @ 41.0¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on May 21?Won
Yes$2 @ 84.0¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Won
Yes$7 @ 15.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?Lost
No$3 @ 71.0¢
Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by May 31?Won
No$6 @ 68.0¢
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 29, 2026?Lost
No$3 @ 9.1¢
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$2 @ 36.0¢
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 26, 2026?Won
Yes$1 @ 82.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30?Won
No$3 @ 80.0¢
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by June 8?Won
Yes$26 @ 57.6¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$23 @ 25.6¢
Will China announce a U.S. oil purchase by May 22?Lost
Yes$4 @ 62.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?Lost
Yes$13 @ 15.4¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?Lost
Yes$104 @ 51.0¢
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico VerhoevenWon
Usyk$94 @ 83.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Won
Yes$25 @ 22.0¢
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?Lost
Yes$7 @ 2.2¢
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?Lost
Yes$27 @ 77.0¢
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in May?Won
Yes$17 @ 85.2¢
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by June 30?Won
Yes$2 @ 64.0¢
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 58.0¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$8 @ 87.2¢
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?Lost
No$3 @ 40.0¢
Will there be between 5 and 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?Won
No$7 @ 85.3¢
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker?Won
Yes$27 @ 80.0¢
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?Lost
Yes$4 @ 3.8¢
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?Won
Yes$5 @ 41.1¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?Won
No$5 @ 79.1¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Won
No$38 @ 75.1¢
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?Lost
No$5 @ 34.7¢
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Won
No$28 @ 55.3¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?Lost
No$11 @ 46.6¢
Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$6 @ 79.0¢
Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$9 @ 52.8¢
Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$7 @ 88.0¢
Will Russia enter Moskovka by May 31?Won
No$5 @ 84.0¢
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by December 31?Won
Yes$4 @ 44.8¢
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$54 @ 79.0¢
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 30?Won
Yes$2 @ 52.0¢
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Won
No$1 @ 93.0¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?Won
Yes$15 @ 76.7¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$3 @ 78.0¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?Won
Yes$8 @ 65.1¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$6 @ 16.1¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$115	75.2¢
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	Politics	No	$16	93.4¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2027?	Politics	Yes	$0	53.4¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$115 @ 75.2¢
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?Politics
No$16 @ 93.4¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2027?Politics
Yes$0 @ 53.4¢