0x152f…a549

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x152fdae6b14b9131a61ec77ed61dda50f68da549
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+5.0pp

ROI

+128%

Win rate

15% @ 9.6¢

Brier

0.108

Resolved

212

Avg size

$521

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	7% (2/30)	-37%	30
Other	30% (3/10)	+956%	10
Sports	13% (1/8)	-68%	8
Geopolitics	0% (0/4)	-100%	4
Crypto	0% (0/3)	-100%	3
Tech	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Politics30 bets
Hit rate
7% (2/30)
ROI
-37%
Other10 bets
Hit rate
30% (3/10)
ROI
+956%
Sports8 bets
Hit rate
13% (1/8)
ROI
-68%
Geopolitics4 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/4)
ROI
-100%
Crypto3 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/3)
ROI
-100%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

11% hit · 6/56

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$675	3.2¢	Lost
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	$189	0.1¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$3.3k	9.7¢	Lost
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in 2026?	No	$140	12.9¢	Lost
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$425	14.2¢	Lost
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs	PARIVISION	$100	21.0¢	Lost
Will Claudia Sheinbaum be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$300	8.9¢	Lost
Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	$1000	7.0¢	Lost
Will Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 American League Championship Series?	Yes	$322	6.3¢	Lost
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$262	1.5¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	$136	25.5¢	Lost
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	$26	0.5¢	Lost
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$922	6.6¢	Lost
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$1.0k	0.1¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	$5	17.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 10, 2026?	No	$420	21.1¢	Lost
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1.2k	1.3¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$11.1k	26.3¢	Won
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series?	Yes	$617	3.5¢	Lost
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$2.1k	5.5¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1.6k	4.7¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$481	1.8¢	Lost
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	$1000	10.7¢	Lost
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card)	Joshua Van	$985	34.9¢	Won
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card)	Tatsuro Taira	$205	24.0¢	Lost
Will South Korea send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.4k	6.0¢	Lost
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	$10.9k	1.9¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$410	5.2¢	Lost
Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni by December 31, 2026?	No	$507	10.2¢	Lost
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	$1.6k	5.0¢	Lost
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	$5	2.0¢	Lost
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$630	17.1¢	Lost
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	$2.0k	45.0¢	Lost
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?	Yes	$4.2k	10.5¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	$2.2k	55.1¢	Won
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	Yes	$6.6k	5.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$802	1.2¢	Lost
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?	Yes	$859	3.9¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$11.7k	6.3¢	Won
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series?	Yes	$4.3k	5.8¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	Yes	$3.0k	11.0¢	Lost
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$2.1k	7.9¢	Lost
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Yes	$2.0k	50.0¢	Won
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1.8k	5.7¢	Lost
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	Yes	$5.0k	2.4¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$11.5k	5.7¢	Lost
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Waldo Cortes-Acosta	$792	35.2¢	Lost
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	$35	22.0¢	Lost
Will Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 AL East title?	Yes	$154	7.4¢	Lost
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	$210	1.5¢	Lost

Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$675 @ 3.2¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$189 @ 0.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$3.3k @ 9.7¢
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in 2026?Lost
No$140 @ 12.9¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?Lost
Yes$425 @ 14.2¢
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO3) - PGL Wallachia PlayoffsLost
PARIVISION$100 @ 21.0¢
Will Claudia Sheinbaum be the next leader out before 2027?Lost
Yes$300 @ 8.9¢
Iran leadership change by May 31?Lost
Yes$1000 @ 7.0¢
Will Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 American League Championship Series?Lost
Yes$322 @ 6.3¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$262 @ 1.5¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Lost
Yes$136 @ 25.5¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$26 @ 0.5¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$922 @ 6.6¢
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$1.0k @ 0.1¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Lost
Yes$5 @ 17.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 10, 2026?Lost
No$420 @ 21.1¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.2k @ 1.3¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$11.1k @ 26.3¢
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series?Lost
Yes$617 @ 3.5¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$2.1k @ 5.5¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.6k @ 4.7¢
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$481 @ 1.8¢
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Lost
Yes$1000 @ 10.7¢
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card)Won
Joshua Van$985 @ 34.9¢
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card)Lost
Tatsuro Taira$205 @ 24.0¢
Will South Korea send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.4k @ 6.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?Lost
Yes$10.9k @ 1.9¢
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$410 @ 5.2¢
Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$507 @ 10.2¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Lost
Yes$1.6k @ 5.0¢
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Lost
Yes$5 @ 2.0¢
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027?Lost
Yes$630 @ 17.1¢
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?Lost
Yes$2.0k @ 45.0¢
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?Lost
Yes$4.2k @ 10.5¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Won
Yes$2.2k @ 55.1¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?Lost
Yes$6.6k @ 5.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$802 @ 1.2¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?Lost
Yes$859 @ 3.9¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?Won
Yes$11.7k @ 6.3¢
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series?Lost
Yes$4.3k @ 5.8¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?Lost
Yes$3.0k @ 11.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$2.1k @ 7.9¢
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?Won
Yes$2.0k @ 50.0¢
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.8k @ 5.7¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?Lost
Yes$5.0k @ 2.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$11.5k @ 5.7¢
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main Card)Lost
Waldo Cortes-Acosta$792 @ 35.2¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?Lost
No$35 @ 22.0¢
Will Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 AL East title?Lost
Yes$154 @ 7.4¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?Lost
Yes$210 @ 1.5¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$16.1k	10.2¢
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$12.5k	2.5¢
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$10.2k	3.4¢
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?	Politics	Yes	$6.5k	2.5¢
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$5.9k	2.4¢
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$1.6k	0.1¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.6k	4.7¢
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?	Politics	Yes	$1.4k	5.4¢
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$1.2k	3.0¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$1.2k	1.3¢
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$1.1k	0.1¢
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$1.0k	0.1¢
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$650	7.4¢
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$630	17.1¢
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$599	11.0¢
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$519	4.4¢
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$500	0.2¢
Will Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 American League Championship Series?	Sports	Yes	$500	11.0¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$425	14.1¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$400	20.3¢
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$399	4.1¢
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$300	5.4¢
Will Claudia Sheinbaum be the next leader out before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$300	8.9¢
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$200	6.1¢
Will Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 AL East title?	Sports	Yes	$150	7.4¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$120	4.2¢
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?	Politics	Yes	$105	7.2¢
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$89	0.6¢
Will Trump meet with Ahmed al-Sharaa in 2026?	Politics	No	$50	25.4¢
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in 2026?	Politics	No	$30	26.0¢

Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
Yes$16.1k @ 10.2¢
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$12.5k @ 2.5¢
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$10.2k @ 3.4¢
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?Politics
Yes$6.5k @ 2.5¢
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$5.9k @ 2.4¢
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$1.6k @ 0.1¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$1.6k @ 4.7¢
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?Politics
Yes$1.4k @ 5.4¢
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$1.2k @ 3.0¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$1.2k @ 1.3¢
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$1.1k @ 0.1¢
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$1.0k @ 0.1¢
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$650 @ 7.4¢
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027?Politics
Yes$630 @ 17.1¢
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$599 @ 11.0¢
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$519 @ 4.4¢
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$500 @ 0.2¢
Will Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 American League Championship Series?Sports
Yes$500 @ 11.0¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?Politics
Yes$425 @ 14.1¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$400 @ 20.3¢
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Economy
Yes$399 @ 4.1¢
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$300 @ 5.4¢
Will Claudia Sheinbaum be the next leader out before 2027?Politics
Yes$300 @ 8.9¢
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$200 @ 6.1¢
Will Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 AL East title?Sports
Yes$150 @ 7.4¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$120 @ 4.2¢
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?Politics
Yes$105 @ 7.2¢
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Economy
Yes$89 @ 0.6¢
Will Trump meet with Ahmed al-Sharaa in 2026?Politics
No$50 @ 25.4¢
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in 2026?Politics
No$30 @ 26.0¢