← Smart money
0x152f…a549
SharpEdge
+8.6pp
ROI
+159%
Win rate
18% @ 9.8¢
Brier
0.132
Resolved
168
Avg size
$580
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 7% (2/30) | -37% | 30 |
| Sports | 10% (1/10) | -71% | 10 |
| Other | 30% (3/10) | +956% | 10 |
| Geopolitics | 0% (0/4) | -100% | 4 |
| Crypto | 0% (0/3) | -100% | 3 |
| Tech | 0% (0/1) | -100% | 1 |
- Politics30 bets
- Hit rate
- 7% (2/30)
- ROI
- -37%
- Sports10 bets
- Hit rate
- 10% (1/10)
- ROI
- -71%
- Other10 bets
- Hit rate
- 30% (3/10)
- ROI
- +956%
- Geopolitics4 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/4)
- ROI
- -100%
- Crypto3 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/3)
- ROI
- -100%
- Tech1 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/1)
- ROI
- -100%
Track record
10% hit · 6/58- Yes$675 @ 3.2¢
- Yes$189 @ 0.1¢
- Yes$3.3k @ 9.7¢
- PARIVISION$100 @ 21.0¢
- Yes$1000 @ 7.0¢
- Yes$136 @ 25.5¢
- Yes$26 @ 0.5¢
- Yes$5 @ 17.0¢
- No$420 @ 21.1¢
- Yes$1.2k @ 1.3¢
- Yes$11.1k @ 26.3¢
- Yes$2.1k @ 5.5¢
- Joshua Van$985 @ 34.9¢
- Tatsuro Taira$205 @ 24.0¢
- Yes$1.4k @ 6.0¢
- Yes$10.9k @ 1.9¢
- Yes$410 @ 5.2¢
- Yes$1.6k @ 5.0¢
- Yes$5 @ 2.0¢
- Yes$2.0k @ 45.0¢
- Yes$4.2k @ 10.5¢
- Yes$2.2k @ 55.1¢
- Yes$6.6k @ 5.0¢
- Yes$859 @ 3.9¢
- Yes$11.7k @ 6.3¢
- Yes$3.0k @ 11.0¢
- Yes$2.1k @ 7.9¢
- Yes$2.0k @ 50.0¢
- Yes$1.8k @ 5.7¢
- Yes$5.0k @ 2.4¢
- Yes$11.5k @ 5.7¢
- Waldo Cortes-Acosta$792 @ 35.2¢
- No$35 @ 22.0¢
- Yes$210 @ 1.5¢
- Khamzat Chimaev$1.1k @ 1.0¢
- Sean Strickland$2.7k @ 21.1¢
- Yes$94 @ 2.1¢
- Yes$986 @ 0.4¢
- Yes$2.1k @ 4.8¢
- No$140 @ 12.9¢
- Yes$425 @ 14.2¢
- Yes$300 @ 8.9¢
- Yes$322 @ 6.3¢
- Yes$262 @ 1.5¢
- Yes$922 @ 6.6¢
- Yes$1.0k @ 0.1¢
- Yes$617 @ 3.5¢
- Yes$1.6k @ 4.7¢
- Yes$481 @ 1.8¢
- Yes$1000 @ 10.7¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Politics | Yes | $16.9k | 10.0¢ |
| Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Politics | Yes | $13.2k | 2.4¢ |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | Politics | Yes | $1.7k | 3.9¢ |
| Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? | Crypto | Yes | $599 | 11.0¢ |
| Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Economy | Yes | $399 | 4.1¢ |
| Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? | Crypto | Yes | $300 | 5.4¢ |
| Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? | Crypto | Yes | $200 | 6.1¢ |
| Will Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 AL East title? | Sports | Yes | $150 | 7.4¢ |
| Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Economy | Yes | $89 | 0.6¢ |
| Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in 2026? | Politics | No | $30 | 26.0¢ |
| Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration in 2026? | Politics | Yes | $20 | 18.5¢ |
| Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Economy | Yes | $10 | 1.1¢ |
- Yes$16.9k @ 10.0¢
- Yes$13.2k @ 2.4¢
- Yes$1.7k @ 3.9¢
- Yes$599 @ 11.0¢
- Yes$399 @ 4.1¢
- Yes$300 @ 5.4¢
- Yes$200 @ 6.1¢
- Yes$150 @ 7.4¢
- Yes$89 @ 0.6¢
- No$30 @ 26.0¢
- Yes$20 @ 18.5¢
- Yes$10 @ 1.1¢