0x11f3…d859

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x11f3c56d0583665247e5a494e8f7709c759ed859
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+3.0pp

ROI

+4%

Win rate

54% @ 51.4¢

Brier

0.146

Resolved

2172

Avg size

$91

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	52% (223/429)	+8%	429
Politics	56% (25/45)	-16%	45
Geopolitics	67% (8/12)	+20%	12
Tech	33% (1/3)	-92%	3
Sports	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Business	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other429 bets
Hit rate
52% (223/429)
ROI
+8%
Politics45 bets
Hit rate
56% (25/45)
ROI
-16%
Geopolitics12 bets
Hit rate
67% (8/12)
ROI
+20%
Tech3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-92%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Business1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

52% hit · 257/491

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	No	$7	35.0¢	Lost
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?	No	$216	72.0¢	Won
Will Hugo Martingale win the Ansem Invitational trading competition?	Yes	$3	12.6¢	Lost
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?	No	$1.2k	83.1¢	Won
Will Trump pardon CZ by October 31?	No	$2.2k	76.1¢	Lost
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?	Yes	$44	14.7¢	Lost
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?	No	$252	84.0¢	Won
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Iowa State Cyclones	Kentucky Wildcats	$350	35.0¢	Lost
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025?	No	$1	76.0¢	Won
Will Trump and Mamdani shake hands for between 6 and 10 seconds on November 21 2025?	No	$337	84.1¢	Won
X banned in Brazil by Friday?	Yes	$74	74.0¢	Won
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Friday?	Yes	$30	2.9¢	Lost
US bank failure by March 31?	No	$1.5k	63.6¢	Lost
Dan Clancy out as Twitch CEO in 2025?	No	$76	47.5¢	Won
Will any free agent QB get more money than Myles Garrett?	Yes	$781	48.4¢	Lost
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair?	Yes	$102	3.1¢	Lost
Will Stephen Hawking be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?	No	$38	89.0¢	Won
Will Diplo run the 5k in under 21 minutes?	No	$168	56.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$128	52.2¢	Won
US kicks trans members out of military before July?	No	$37	37.0¢	Won
Will Claude 5 be released by March 15, 2026?	No	$31	79.1¢	Won
Will Claude 5 be released by March 15, 2026?	Yes	$34	24.7¢	Lost
Will no one dissent September Fed decision?	No	$406	62.4¢	Won
Will no one dissent September Fed decision?	Yes	$20	5.0¢	Lost
Weed rescheduled by June 30?	No	$164	69.2¢	Won
Will Eric Adams be removed as NYC mayor?	No	$81	80.0¢	Won
Will Diplo run the 5k in under 19 minutes?	Yes	$3	3.1¢	Lost
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by August 31?	No	$975	88.3¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$1.5k	42.4¢	Won
Will Michelle Obama be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee?	Yes	$18	1.7¢	Lost
Elon Musk out as Senior Advisor to Trump in May?	No	$3	5.0¢	Lost
Elon Musk out as Senior Advisor to Trump in May?	Yes	$334	33.0¢	Won
Is there less than 10000000 Troy Ounces of Gold in Fort Knox?	Yes	$17	4.6¢	Lost
Weed rescheduled by March 31?	No	$69	35.7¢	Won
Will an Erewhon open in NYC in 2025?	No	$5	89.5¢	Won
Will a Republican win the popular vote and a Democrat win the Presidency?	Yes	$63	2.8¢	Lost
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	Yes	$308	24.0¢	Won
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 31?	No	$26	64.0¢	Lost
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 31?	Yes	$21	49.1¢	Won
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	Yes	$204	18.0¢	Lost
Will Cuomo endorse Eric Adams?	Yes	$47	9.4¢	Lost
Elon Musk out as Head of DOGE before July?	No	$332	65.0¢	Lost
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?	No	$67	33.4¢	Lost
Fed rate cut by September meeting?	Yes	$116	65.4¢	Won
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31?	Yes	$432	32.0¢	Won
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?	No	$476	79.3¢	Won
Will Kamala Harris be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee?	Yes	$80	26.8¢	Lost
Will Trump endorse a candidate for NYC Mayor?	No	$5	83.0¢	Lost
Will Trump endorse a candidate for NYC Mayor?	Yes	$44	29.3¢	Won
Eric Adams a Republican before April?	No	$580	71.5¢	Won

Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?Lost
No$7 @ 35.0¢
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?Won
No$216 @ 72.0¢
Will Hugo Martingale win the Ansem Invitational trading competition?Lost
Yes$3 @ 12.6¢
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?Won
No$1.2k @ 83.1¢
Will Trump pardon CZ by October 31?Lost
No$2.2k @ 76.1¢
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?Lost
Yes$44 @ 14.7¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?Won
No$252 @ 84.0¢
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Iowa State CyclonesLost
Kentucky Wildcats$350 @ 35.0¢
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025?Won
No$1 @ 76.0¢
Will Trump and Mamdani shake hands for between 6 and 10 seconds on November 21 2025?Won
No$337 @ 84.1¢
X banned in Brazil by Friday?Won
Yes$74 @ 74.0¢
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Friday?Lost
Yes$30 @ 2.9¢
US bank failure by March 31?Lost
No$1.5k @ 63.6¢
Dan Clancy out as Twitch CEO in 2025?Won
No$76 @ 47.5¢
Will any free agent QB get more money than Myles Garrett?Lost
Yes$781 @ 48.4¢
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair?Lost
Yes$102 @ 3.1¢
Will Stephen Hawking be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?Won
No$38 @ 89.0¢
Will Diplo run the 5k in under 21 minutes?Lost
No$168 @ 56.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?Won
Yes$128 @ 52.2¢
US kicks trans members out of military before July? Won
No$37 @ 37.0¢
Will Claude 5 be released by March 15, 2026?Won
No$31 @ 79.1¢
Will Claude 5 be released by March 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$34 @ 24.7¢
Will no one dissent September Fed decision?Won
No$406 @ 62.4¢
Will no one dissent September Fed decision?Lost
Yes$20 @ 5.0¢
Weed rescheduled by June 30?Won
No$164 @ 69.2¢
Will Eric Adams be removed as NYC mayor?Won
No$81 @ 80.0¢
Will Diplo run the 5k in under 19 minutes?Lost
Yes$3 @ 3.1¢
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by August 31?Won
No$975 @ 88.3¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$1.5k @ 42.4¢
Will Michelle Obama be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee?Lost
Yes$18 @ 1.7¢
Elon Musk out as Senior Advisor to Trump in May?Lost
No$3 @ 5.0¢
Elon Musk out as Senior Advisor to Trump in May?Won
Yes$334 @ 33.0¢
Is there less than 10000000 Troy Ounces of Gold in Fort Knox?Lost
Yes$17 @ 4.6¢
Weed rescheduled by March 31?Won
No$69 @ 35.7¢
Will an Erewhon open in NYC in 2025?Won
No$5 @ 89.5¢
Will a Republican win the popular vote and a Democrat win the Presidency?Lost
Yes$63 @ 2.8¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Won
Yes$308 @ 24.0¢
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 31?Lost
No$26 @ 64.0¢
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 31?Won
Yes$21 @ 49.1¢
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?Lost
Yes$204 @ 18.0¢
Will Cuomo endorse Eric Adams?Lost
Yes$47 @ 9.4¢
Elon Musk out as Head of DOGE before July?Lost
No$332 @ 65.0¢
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?Lost
No$67 @ 33.4¢
Fed rate cut by September meeting?Won
Yes$116 @ 65.4¢
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? Won
Yes$432 @ 32.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Won
No$476 @ 79.3¢
Will Kamala Harris be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee?Lost
Yes$80 @ 26.8¢
Will Trump endorse a candidate for NYC Mayor?Lost
No$5 @ 83.0¢
Will Trump endorse a candidate for NYC Mayor?Won
Yes$44 @ 29.3¢
Eric Adams a Republican before April?Won
No$580 @ 71.5¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Trump renames New Mexico to New America by September 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$5.3k	94.9¢
Will the US announce a diesel export ban by September 30?	Politics	No	$2.6k	90.1¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$2.6k	84.8¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$2.0k	89.7¢
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?	Science	No	$1.5k	90.7¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by September 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$1.4k	92.1¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	Politics	No	$1.2k	90.0¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by September 30?	Politics	No	$942	98.0¢
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027?	Politics	No	$926	86.9¢
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?	Science	No	$773	71.3¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30?	Politics	No	$622	95.2¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$507	50.7¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?	Geopolitics	No	$475	95.0¢
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?	Politics	No	$427	94.5¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Politics	Yes	$385	30.8¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	Politics	No	$385	86.2¢
Iran Nuke before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$196	6.5¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$161	6.4¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$103	41.4¢
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$96	17.3¢
Leopold Aschenbrenner charged in 2026?	Other	No	$86	92.0¢
Will Pete Crow-Armstrong win the 2026 National League MVP Award?	Sports	Yes	$79	53.9¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$72	23.9¢
Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$70	24.4¢
Will Ahmad Vahidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$68	75.3¢
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 20?	Geopolitics	Yes	$59	51.5¢
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	Yes	$49	54.2¢
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$36	2.9¢
Will Cristopher Sánchez strike out the most batters during the 2026 MLB regular season?	Sports	No	$18	91.0¢
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 22?	Geopolitics	Yes	$12	63.0¢

Trump renames New Mexico to New America by September 30, 2026?Politics
No$5.3k @ 94.9¢
Will the US announce a diesel export ban by September 30?Politics
No$2.6k @ 90.1¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Politics
No$2.6k @ 84.8¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$2.0k @ 89.7¢
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?Science
No$1.5k @ 90.7¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by September 30, 2026?Politics
No$1.4k @ 92.1¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Politics
No$1.2k @ 90.0¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by September 30?Politics
No$942 @ 98.0¢
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027?Politics
No$926 @ 86.9¢
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?Science
No$773 @ 71.3¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30?Politics
No$622 @ 95.2¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$507 @ 50.7¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?Geopolitics
No$475 @ 95.0¢
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?Politics
No$427 @ 94.5¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Politics
Yes$385 @ 30.8¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?Politics
No$385 @ 86.2¢
Iran Nuke before 2027?Politics
Yes$196 @ 6.5¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$161 @ 6.4¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$103 @ 41.4¢
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?Politics
Yes$96 @ 17.3¢
Leopold Aschenbrenner charged in 2026?Other
No$86 @ 92.0¢
Will Pete Crow-Armstrong win the 2026 National League MVP Award?Sports
Yes$79 @ 53.9¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$72 @ 23.9¢
Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$70 @ 24.4¢
Will Ahmad Vahidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$68 @ 75.3¢
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 20?Geopolitics
Yes$59 @ 51.5¢
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
Yes$49 @ 54.2¢
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$36 @ 2.9¢
Will Cristopher Sánchez strike out the most batters during the 2026 MLB regular season?Sports
No$18 @ 91.0¢
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 22?Geopolitics
Yes$12 @ 63.0¢