0x11f3…d859

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

• Other444 bets

  Hit rate

  52% (230/444)

  ROI

  +8%

• Politics90 bets

  Hit rate

  59% (53/90)

  ROI

  -6%

• Geopolitics21 bets

  Hit rate

  62% (13/21)

  ROI

  +14%

• Economy11 bets

  Hit rate

  0% (0/11)

  ROI

  -100%

• Tech7 bets

  Hit rate

  29% (2/7)

  ROI

  -99%

• Sports3 bets

  Hit rate

  67% (2/3)

  ROI

  -18%

• Science2 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (2/2)

  ROI

  +4%

• Culture1 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (1/1)

  ROI

  +1%

• Business1 bets

  Hit rate

  0% (0/1)

  ROI

  -100%

• Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?Lost
  No$120 @ 80.0¢
• Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?Lost
  No$7 @ 35.0¢
• Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?Won
  No$216 @ 72.0¢
• Will Hugo Martingale win the Ansem Invitational trading competition?Lost
  Yes$3 @ 12.6¢
• US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?Won
  No$1.2k @ 83.1¢
• Will Trump pardon CZ by October 31?Lost
  No$2.2k @ 76.1¢
• No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?Lost
  Yes$44 @ 14.7¢
• Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?Won
  No$252 @ 84.0¢
• Kentucky Wildcats vs. Iowa State CyclonesLost
  Kentucky Wildcats$350 @ 35.0¢
• Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025?Won
  No$1 @ 76.0¢
• Will Trump and Mamdani shake hands for between 6 and 10 seconds on November 21 2025?Won
  No$337 @ 84.1¢
• X banned in Brazil by Friday?Won
  Yes$74 @ 74.0¢
• Will Khamenei leave Iran by Friday?Lost
  Yes$30 @ 2.9¢
• US bank failure by March 31?Lost
  No$1.5k @ 63.6¢
• Will Core CPI YoY be 2.3% in October?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 0.2¢
• Dan Clancy out as Twitch CEO in 2025?Won
  No$76 @ 47.5¢
• Will any free agent QB get more money than Myles Garrett?Lost
  Yes$781 @ 48.4¢
• Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair?Lost
  Yes$102 @ 3.1¢
• Will Stephen Hawking be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?Won
  No$38 @ 89.0¢
• Will Diplo run the 5k in under 21 minutes?Lost
  No$168 @ 56.0¢
• Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?Won
  Yes$128 @ 52.2¢
• US kicks trans members out of military before July? Won
  No$37 @ 37.0¢
• Will Claude 5 be released by March 15, 2026?Won
  No$31 @ 79.1¢
• Will Claude 5 be released by March 15, 2026?Lost
  Yes$34 @ 24.7¢
• Will no one dissent September Fed decision?Won
  No$406 @ 62.4¢
• Will no one dissent September Fed decision?Lost
  Yes$20 @ 5.0¢
• Weed rescheduled by June 30?Won
  No$164 @ 69.2¢
• Will Eric Adams be removed as NYC mayor?Won
  No$81 @ 80.0¢
• Will Diplo run the 5k in under 19 minutes?Lost
  Yes$3 @ 3.1¢
• Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by August 31?Won
  No$975 @ 88.3¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
  No$1.5k @ 42.4¢
• Will Michelle Obama be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee?Lost
  Yes$18 @ 1.7¢
• Elon Musk out as Senior Advisor to Trump in May?Lost
  No$3 @ 5.0¢
• Elon Musk out as Senior Advisor to Trump in May?Won
  Yes$334 @ 33.0¢
• Is there less than 10000000 Troy Ounces of Gold in Fort Knox?Lost
  Yes$17 @ 4.6¢
• Weed rescheduled by March 31?Won
  No$69 @ 35.7¢
• Will an Erewhon open in NYC in 2025?Won
  No$5 @ 89.5¢
• Will a Republican win the popular vote and a Democrat win the Presidency?Lost
  Yes$63 @ 2.8¢
• Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Won
  Yes$308 @ 24.0¢
• Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 31?Lost
  No$26 @ 64.0¢
• Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 31?Won
  Yes$21 @ 49.1¢
• Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?Lost
  Yes$204 @ 18.0¢
• Will Cuomo endorse Eric Adams?Lost
  Yes$47 @ 9.4¢
• Elon Musk out as Head of DOGE before July?Lost
  No$332 @ 65.0¢
• Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?Lost
  No$67 @ 33.4¢
• Fed rate cut by September meeting?Won
  Yes$116 @ 65.4¢
• US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? Won
  Yes$432 @ 32.0¢
• Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Won
  No$476 @ 79.3¢
• Will Kamala Harris be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee?Lost
  Yes$80 @ 26.8¢
• Will Trump endorse a candidate for NYC Mayor?Lost
  No$5 @ 83.0¢

Current positions

• Will annual inflation be 3.6% in October?Economy
  No$5.1k @ 96.7¢
• Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 14?Politics
  No$3.7k @ 94.0¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?Politics
  No$3.5k @ 94.9¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?Politics
  No$2.4k @ 94.0¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
  No$2.3k @ 91.0¢
• US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?Politics
  No$2.1k @ 92.7¢
• Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$1.9k @ 84.8¢
• Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?Science
  No$1.7k @ 79.8¢
• Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Politics
  No$1.7k @ 86.0¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?Politics
  No$1.6k @ 82.0¢
• US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
  No$1.3k @ 89.7¢
• Will Trump pardon Himself before 2027?Politics
  No$955 @ 95.3¢
• Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027?Politics
  No$926 @ 86.9¢
• Will the US announce a diesel export ban by December 31?Politics
  No$832 @ 86.4¢
• Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 21?Politics
  No$582 @ 82.5¢
• Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?Politics
  No$454 @ 66.6¢
• Will a hurricane make landfall in Louisiana by November 30, 2026?Science
  No$389 @ 94.7¢
• Will a hurricane make landfall in Delaware by November 30, 2026?Science
  No$323 @ 94.5¢
• Will a hurricane make landfall in Georgia by November 30, 2026?Science
  No$253 @ 94.5¢
• Will Core CPI YoY be 2.5% in October?Economy
  No$244 @ 91.4¢
• Will a hurricane make landfall in New Hampshire by November 30, 2026?Science
  No$153 @ 94.3¢
• Will Trump pardon Roger Ver before 2027?Politics
  No$150 @ 95.3¢
• Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?Politics
  No$120 @ 80.0¢
• Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?Geopolitics
  Yes$119 @ 6.4¢
• Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 13, 2026?Tech
  Yes$112 @ 64.0¢
• Will Trump pardon Ryan Salame before 2027?Politics
  No$109 @ 90.0¢
• Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?Politics
  Yes$96 @ 17.3¢
• Leopold Aschenbrenner charged in 2026?Other
  No$86 @ 92.0¢
• Will Pete Crow-Armstrong win the 2026 National League MVP Award?Sports
  Yes$79 @ 53.9¢
• Will Ahmad Vahidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$74 @ 73.8¢