0x0f38…e56c

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x0f38e6ab8b6068961994022e1f4ac3260e5ce56c
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

-6.5pp

ROI

+8%

Win rate

46% @ 52.6¢

Brier

0.190

Resolved

1172

Avg size

$18

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	37% (34/93)	+1%	93
Politics	47% (20/43)	+17%	43
Tech	44% (11/25)	-20%	25
Sports	36% (4/11)	+15%	11
Geopolitics	73% (8/11)	+14%	11
Economy	50% (1/2)	+38%	2
Culture	50% (1/2)	+3%	2

Other93 bets
Hit rate
37% (34/93)
ROI
+1%
Politics43 bets
Hit rate
47% (20/43)
ROI
+17%
Tech25 bets
Hit rate
44% (11/25)
ROI
-20%
Sports11 bets
Hit rate
36% (4/11)
ROI
+15%
Geopolitics11 bets
Hit rate
73% (8/11)
ROI
+14%
Economy2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+38%
Culture2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+3%

Track record

42% hit · 79/187

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	$19	20.4¢	Won
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	$8	89.0¢	Lost
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	$119	77.0¢	Lost
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	No	$8	35.0¢	Won
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	Yes	$34	71.2¢	Lost
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 23, 2026?	No	$5	96.0¢	Won
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 23, 2026?	Yes	$2	17.8¢	Lost
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 15, 2026?	No	$29	98.4¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	Yes	$98	98.3¢	Won
Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?	Yes	$474	80.2¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?	No	$5	74.0¢	Won
Will Keir Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 10+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	No	$0	1.0¢	Lost
Will four or more people dissent the April Fed decision?	Yes	$59	7.1¢	Lost
Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$68	56.9¢	Lost
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$23	8.9¢	Lost
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?	Yes	$156	70.8¢	Won
Will Warsh say "Anchor" or "Anchored" during July Press Conference?	No	$8	82.0¢	Won
Will Warsh say "Good day" during July Press Conference?	Yes	$209	68.3¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?	Yes	$12	12.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his evening remarks with Xi Jinping?	No	$16	79.0¢	Won
Will Comey insult Trump by Friday?	Yes	$9	6.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "China" 5+ times during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?	Yes	$30	38.1¢	Lost
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	$29	9.2¢	Lost
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 5%?	Over	$121	80.9¢	Lost
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	$17	17.0¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	$118	59.0¢	Won
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$42	8.5¢	Lost
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?	No	$88	85.5¢	Won
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?	Yes	$14	12.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Trump" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?	Yes	$6	32.9¢	Lost
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$42	89.0¢	Won
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$25	11.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 5+ times during his evening remarks with Xi Jinping?	No	$17	87.0¢	Won
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals	No	$187	57.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Farmer" during King Charles visit?	Yes	$2	12.0¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	Yes	$3.4k	79.0¢	Won
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	No	$7	55.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	Yes	$3	11.0¢	Lost
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$216	49.4¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	$306	67.9¢	Won
Will Justin Bieber have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?	Yes	$2	3.1¢	Lost
Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$70	77.6¢	Lost
Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 18, 2026?	Yes	$22	80.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	Yes	$34	56.6¢	Lost
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$76	7.8¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	$23	18.0¢	Lost
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	No	$451	81.2¢	Won
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	No	$618	77.3¢	Won
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	Yes	$82	20.5¢	Lost

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Won
No$19 @ 20.4¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
Yes$8 @ 89.0¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
No$119 @ 77.0¢
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?Won
No$8 @ 35.0¢
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?Lost
Yes$34 @ 71.2¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 23, 2026?Won
No$5 @ 96.0¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 23, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 17.8¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 15, 2026?Won
No$29 @ 98.4¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?Won
Yes$98 @ 98.3¢
Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?Won
Yes$474 @ 80.2¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?Won
No$5 @ 74.0¢
Will Keir Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 10+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Lost
No$0 @ 1.0¢
Will four or more people dissent the April Fed decision?Lost
Yes$59 @ 7.1¢
Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$68 @ 56.9¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$23 @ 8.9¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?Won
Yes$156 @ 70.8¢
Will Warsh say "Anchor" or "Anchored" during July Press Conference?Won
No$8 @ 82.0¢
Will Warsh say "Good day" during July Press Conference?Won
Yes$209 @ 68.3¢
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?Lost
Yes$12 @ 12.0¢
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his evening remarks with Xi Jinping?Won
No$16 @ 79.0¢
Will Comey insult Trump by Friday?Lost
Yes$9 @ 6.0¢
Will Trump say "China" 5+ times during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?Lost
Yes$30 @ 38.1¢
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?Lost
Yes$29 @ 9.2¢
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 5%?Lost
Over$121 @ 80.9¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Lost
Yes$17 @ 17.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Won
No$118 @ 59.0¢
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$42 @ 8.5¢
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?Won
No$88 @ 85.5¢
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?Lost
Yes$14 @ 12.0¢
Will Trump say "Trump" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?Lost
Yes$6 @ 32.9¢
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$42 @ 89.0¢
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$25 @ 11.0¢
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 5+ times during his evening remarks with Xi Jinping?Won
No$17 @ 87.0¢
Erling Haaland: 1+ goalsWon
No$187 @ 57.0¢
Will Trump say "Farmer" during King Charles visit?Lost
Yes$2 @ 12.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Won
Yes$3.4k @ 79.0¢
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?Lost
No$7 @ 55.0¢
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 11.0¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$216 @ 49.4¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Won
No$306 @ 67.9¢
Will Justin Bieber have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?Lost
Yes$2 @ 3.1¢
Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$70 @ 77.6¢
Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 18, 2026?Lost
Yes$22 @ 80.0¢
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026?Lost
Yes$34 @ 56.6¢
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$76 @ 7.8¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Lost
No$23 @ 18.0¢
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?Won
No$451 @ 81.2¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Won
No$618 @ 77.3¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Lost
Yes$82 @ 20.5¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

Loading recent trades…

Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	Tech	No	$178	89.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$134	67.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Politics	Yes	$132	66.0¢
Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 26, 2026?	Tech	No	$126	87.3¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Politics	Yes	$118	59.0¢
France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$109	90.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the WI-05 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$94	94.3¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$79	79.0¢
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	Yes	$78	52.2¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$43	86.0¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	No	$42	83.2¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Geopolitics	Yes	$37	74.0¢
Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$21	93.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Tech	Yes	$19	43.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$18	90.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$17	68.0¢
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?	Politics	No	$13	87.0¢
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	Politics	No	$11	97.4¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$10	97.2¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$9	17.1¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$3	91.6¢
Will the Democratic Party win the WI-05 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$3	2.6¢
Will the Green Party (MP) be in the next Swedish government?	Politics	No	$2	32.4¢
Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	Economy	No	$2	77.8¢
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	No	$2	92.7¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$0	26.3¢

Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?Tech
No$178 @ 89.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$134 @ 67.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HousePolitics
Yes$132 @ 66.0¢
Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 26, 2026?Tech
No$126 @ 87.3¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Politics
Yes$118 @ 59.0¢
France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$109 @ 90.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the WI-05 House seat?Politics
Yes$94 @ 94.3¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$79 @ 79.0¢
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
Yes$78 @ 52.2¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Geopolitics
Yes$43 @ 86.0¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
No$42 @ 83.2¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Geopolitics
Yes$37 @ 74.0¢
Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$21 @ 93.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech
Yes$19 @ 43.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026?Politics
No$18 @ 90.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?Geopolitics
No$17 @ 68.0¢
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?Politics
No$13 @ 87.0¢
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?Politics
No$11 @ 97.4¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$10 @ 97.2¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$9 @ 17.1¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$3 @ 91.6¢
Will the Democratic Party win the WI-05 House seat?Politics
Yes$3 @ 2.6¢
Will the Green Party (MP) be in the next Swedish government?Politics
No$2 @ 32.4¢
Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?Economy
No$2 @ 77.8¢
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
No$2 @ 92.7¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$0 @ 26.3¢