0x0f2b…665a

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x0f2bcf469f85fe746058f3a0767d24124d0d665a
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+6.9pp

ROI

+4%

Win rate

75% @ 68.0¢

Brier

0.126

Resolved

503

Avg size

$351

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	72% (21/29)	+25%	29
Other	64% (9/14)	-13%	14
Geopolitics	60% (3/5)	+12%	5
Tech	100% (3/3)	+18%	3
Sports	50% (1/2)	+50%	2

Politics29 bets
Hit rate
72% (21/29)
ROI
+25%
Other14 bets
Hit rate
64% (9/14)
ROI
-13%
Geopolitics5 bets
Hit rate
60% (3/5)
ROI
+12%
Tech3 bets
Hit rate
100% (3/3)
ROI
+18%
Sports2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+50%

Track record

70% hit · 37/53

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$750	75.0¢	Won
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$175	17.1¢	Lost
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?	Yes	$1.6k	80.5¢	Won
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$848	84.3¢	Won
Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by September 30?	Yes	$1.6k	82.0¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?	No	$2.4k	80.4¢	Won
Will Claude 5 be released by June 12, 2026?	Yes	$400	80.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$5.9k	84.1¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	$440	22.0¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?	Yes	$177	8.9¢	Lost
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?	No	$4.0k	79.8¢	Won
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026?	No	$856	57.1¢	Lost
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	$930	31.0¢	Lost
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$810	81.0¢	Won
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	Yes	$57	1.1¢	Lost
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$375	75.0¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	$4.1k	82.0¢	Won
Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by December 31?	Yes	$1.7k	87.0¢	Won
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	$3.0k	75.4¢	Won
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	$19.8k	67.1¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	$17.9k	85.3¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$478	47.8¢	Won
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$976	48.8¢	Won
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31?	Yes	$15.7k	80.3¢	Won
Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?	No	$3.8k	85.5¢	Won
Nothing Ever Happens: July	Nothing	$777	77.7¢	Won
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?	Yes	$640	64.0¢	Won
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$1.2k	58.2¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30?	No	$4.4k	88.9¢	Won
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30?	No	$257	88.0¢	Won
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?	No	$1.4k	46.7¢	Won
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	$10.3k	85.8¢	Lost
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	$26.1k	68.5¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$4.3k	86.0¢	Won
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by December 31, 2026?	No	$200	20.0¢	Lost
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31?	No	$21	4.2¢	Lost
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31?	Yes	$800	80.0¢	Won
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	No	$188	9.4¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	$2.2k	72.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	$800	40.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	No	$580	58.0¢	Won
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?	No	$790	79.0¢	Won
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	No	$8.5k	68.1¢	Won
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31?	Yes	$9	7.0¢	Lost
Will Yabloko gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$199	2.0¢	Lost
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$2.4k	34.0¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	No	$3.5k	71.0¢	Won
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by July 31?	No	$77	85.0¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	$4.3k	85.0¢	Won
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?	No	$5.3k	63.8¢	Won

US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?Won
Yes$750 @ 75.0¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$175 @ 17.1¢
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?Won
Yes$1.6k @ 80.5¢
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$848 @ 84.3¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by September 30?Won
Yes$1.6k @ 82.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Won
No$2.4k @ 80.4¢
Will Claude 5 be released by June 12, 2026?Won
Yes$400 @ 80.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$5.9k @ 84.1¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
Yes$440 @ 22.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?Lost
Yes$177 @ 8.9¢
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?Won
No$4.0k @ 79.8¢
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026?Lost
No$856 @ 57.1¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Lost
No$930 @ 31.0¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Won
Yes$810 @ 81.0¢
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?Lost
Yes$57 @ 1.1¢
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$375 @ 75.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Won
Yes$4.1k @ 82.0¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by December 31?Won
Yes$1.7k @ 87.0¢
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?Won
No$3.0k @ 75.4¢
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?Lost
Yes$19.8k @ 67.1¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Won
No$17.9k @ 85.3¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$478 @ 47.8¢
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$976 @ 48.8¢
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31?Won
Yes$15.7k @ 80.3¢
Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?Won
No$3.8k @ 85.5¢
Nothing Ever Happens: JulyWon
Nothing$777 @ 77.7¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?Won
Yes$640 @ 64.0¢
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$1.2k @ 58.2¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30?Won
No$4.4k @ 88.9¢
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30?Won
No$257 @ 88.0¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?Won
No$1.4k @ 46.7¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?Lost
No$10.3k @ 85.8¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?Won
Yes$26.1k @ 68.5¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Won
Yes$4.3k @ 86.0¢
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$200 @ 20.0¢
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31?Lost
No$21 @ 4.2¢
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31?Won
Yes$800 @ 80.0¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$188 @ 9.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Won
No$2.2k @ 72.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Lost
Yes$800 @ 40.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Won
No$580 @ 58.0¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?Won
No$790 @ 79.0¢
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Won
No$8.5k @ 68.1¢
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31?Lost
Yes$9 @ 7.0¢
Will Yabloko gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Lost
Yes$199 @ 2.0¢
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Lost
Yes$2.4k @ 34.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Won
No$3.5k @ 71.0¢
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by July 31?Won
No$77 @ 85.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Won
Yes$4.3k @ 85.0¢
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?Won
No$5.3k @ 63.8¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
No one announced as next James Bond?	Culture	No	$15.9k	79.3¢
Andrew Tate released from custody by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$14.2k	83.3¢
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Politics	No	$7.6k	76.0¢
Trump out as President before 2027?	Politics	No	$4.8k	95.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	No	$4.7k	94.0¢
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$4.7k	94.0¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Other	No	$4.7k	93.0¢
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	Politics	No	$4.6k	92.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	No	$4.6k	46.0¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$4.5k	89.0¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$4.1k	82.3¢
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$4.0k	80.0¢
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?	Politics	No	$3.5k	69.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Politics	No	$3.4k	85.1¢
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Politics	No	$3.2k	64.3¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$2.2k	22.1¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$2.1k	41.1¢
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$1.8k	89.3¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Tech	Yes	$1.5k	74.0¢
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$1.4k	72.5¢
Will Siegfried Mureșan be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Politics	No	$1.2k	85.0¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.2k	12.0¢
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Politics	Yes	$1.2k	59.6¢
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	Business	Yes	$1.1k	57.0¢
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$1.0k	51.3¢
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$892	8.9¢
Will Trump and Putin not meet?	Politics	No	$860	43.0¢
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$850	85.0¢
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	Politics	Yes	$719	71.9¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$700	70.0¢

No one announced as next James Bond?Culture
No$15.9k @ 79.3¢
Andrew Tate released from custody by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$14.2k @ 83.3¢
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania?Politics
No$7.6k @ 76.0¢
Trump out as President before 2027?Politics
No$4.8k @ 95.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
No$4.7k @ 94.0¢
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$4.7k @ 94.0¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?Other
No$4.7k @ 93.0¢
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?Politics
No$4.6k @ 92.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
No$4.6k @ 46.0¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$4.5k @ 89.0¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
Yes$4.1k @ 82.3¢
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?Politics
Yes$4.0k @ 80.0¢
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?Politics
No$3.5k @ 69.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Politics
No$3.4k @ 85.1¢
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?Politics
No$3.2k @ 64.3¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$2.2k @ 22.1¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$2.1k @ 41.1¢
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$1.8k @ 89.3¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech
Yes$1.5k @ 74.0¢
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Politics
Yes$1.4k @ 72.5¢
Will Siegfried Mureșan be the next Prime Minister of Romania?Politics
No$1.2k @ 85.0¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$1.2k @ 12.0¢
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?Politics
Yes$1.2k @ 59.6¢
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?Business
Yes$1.1k @ 57.0¢
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$1.0k @ 51.3¢
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$892 @ 8.9¢
Will Trump and Putin not meet?Politics
No$860 @ 43.0¢
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$850 @ 85.0¢
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026Politics
Yes$719 @ 71.9¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$700 @ 70.0¢