← Smart money
0x0f18…5b28
ProfitableEdge
+38.4pp
ROI
+65%
Win rate
84% @ 45.4¢
Brier
0.259
Resolved
37
Avg size
$11
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 60% (3/5) | +57% | 5 |
| Crypto | 25% (1/4) | -28% | 4 |
| Politics | 100% (3/3) | +161% | 3 |
| Tech | 100% (1/1) | +56% | 1 |
| Other | 100% (1/1) | +14% | 1 |
| Geopolitics | 100% (1/1) | +142% | 1 |
- Sports5 bets
- Hit rate
- 60% (3/5)
- ROI
- +57%
- Crypto4 bets
- Hit rate
- 25% (1/4)
- ROI
- -28%
- Politics3 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (3/3)
- ROI
- +161%
- Tech1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +56%
- Other1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +14%
- Geopolitics1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +142%
Track record
67% hit · 10/15| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? | No | $2 | 8.6¢ | Lost |
| Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner | Aurora | $4 | 48.0¢ | Lost |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? | No | $31 | 35.0¢ | Won |
| Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? | No | $10 | 41.3¢ | Won |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? | No | $47 | 65.8¢ | Won |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Yes | $45 | 47.0¢ | Won |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14? | Yes | $48 | 5.5¢ | Lost |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Yes | $80 | 34.0¢ | Won |
| Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? | No | $8 | 35.0¢ | Won |
| Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? | Yes | $30 | 64.0¢ | Lost |
| Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner | Natus Vincere | $2 | 27.0¢ | Won |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? | No | $2 | 26.9¢ | Lost |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | $5 | 62.4¢ | Won |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? | Yes | $60 | 88.0¢ | Won |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? | No | $51 | 64.0¢ | Won |
- No$2 @ 8.6¢
- Aurora$4 @ 48.0¢
- No$31 @ 35.0¢
- No$10 @ 41.3¢
- No$47 @ 65.8¢
- Yes$45 @ 47.0¢
- Yes$48 @ 5.5¢
- Yes$80 @ 34.0¢
- No$8 @ 35.0¢
- Yes$30 @ 64.0¢
- Natus Vincere$2 @ 27.0¢
- No$2 @ 26.9¢
- Yes$5 @ 62.4¢
- Yes$60 @ 88.0¢
- No$51 @ 64.0¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
- Yes$180 @ 44.8¢
- Yes$158 @ 58.1¢
- No$143 @ 91.3¢
- Will Neymar play in the World Cup?GeopoliticsYes$119 @ 85.4¢
- No$119 @ 92.5¢
- Netanyahu out by June 30?PoliticsNo$111 @ 97.7¢
- No$94 @ 55.6¢
- No$91 @ 83.4¢
- No$89 @ 96.7¢
- Yes$83 @ 26.3¢
- Trump goes to space in 2026?PoliticsNo$68 @ 97.0¢
- Yes$62 @ 93.4¢
- No$60 @ 88.4¢
- No$60 @ 43.5¢
- No$60 @ 83.0¢
- No$60 @ 92.8¢
- No$60 @ 99.0¢
- No$60 @ 96.8¢
- No$60 @ 89.8¢
- No$60 @ 86.0¢
- Yes$60 @ 16.2¢
- Yes$60 @ 46.3¢
- Iran coup attempt by June 30?PoliticsNo$60 @ 94.2¢
- Yes$51 @ 39.3¢
- No$50 @ 98.7¢
- No$50 @ 78.8¢
- No$50 @ 90.3¢
- No$50 @ 97.2¢
- No$50 @ 99.6¢
- No$50 @ 98.2¢