0x0e4f…81a1

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x0e4fa3f3d271699554bd64ea926e5069748581a1
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+4.8pp

ROI

+39%

Win rate

36% @ 30.8¢

Brier

0.142

Resolved

446

Avg size

$451

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	55% (12/22)	-32%	22
Sports	31% (5/16)	+48%	16
Politics	75% (6/8)	-39%	8
Geopolitics	100% (1/1)	+0%	1
Economy	100% (1/1)	+0%	1
Business	100% (1/1)	+0%	1

Other22 bets
Hit rate
55% (12/22)
ROI
-32%
Sports16 bets
Hit rate
31% (5/16)
ROI
+48%
Politics8 bets
Hit rate
75% (6/8)
ROI
-39%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+0%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+0%
Business1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+0%

Track record

53% hit · 26/49

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 5?	Yes	$15	99.1¢	Won
Will Comcast close Warner Bros acquisition?	No	$8	99.9¢	Won
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	$15	99.8¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in September?	No	$15	99.9¢	Won
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?	No	$10	99.6¢	Won
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	$10	97.5¢	Won
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	$60	99.9¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?	Yes	$1	97.8¢	Won
Genius FDV above $20M one day after launch?	No	$14	1.8¢	Lost
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Michigan Wolverines	Tennessee Volunteers	$2.8k	24.0¢	Lost
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$6.4k	82.6¢	Won
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$21.6k	17.3¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$446	74.3¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$374	2.5¢	Lost
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$1.9k	4.5¢	Lost
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	No	$1.5k	77.0¢	Won
Will Powell say "Edging" 3+ times during October press conference?	No	$5	87.0¢	Won
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$9.3k	6.2¢	Lost
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 219.5	Over	$721	72.0¢	Won
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$13.6k	10.5¢	Lost
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 26?	No	$35	5.2¢	Lost
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$16.9k	7.1¢	Lost
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	No	$24	48.0¢	Won
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$3.7k	3.2¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #20 Playoffs	Ursa	$23	23.0¢	Won
Genius FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	$3	3.9¢	Lost
Will FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw?	No	$2.0k	77.2¢	Won
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-5.5)	Connecticut Huskies	$266	53.0¢	Won
UCLA Bruins vs. Connecticut Huskies	Connecticut Huskies	$3	63.0¢	Won
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougars	Houston Cougars	$2.6k	57.0¢	Lost
Will Arsenal FC vs. Sporting CP end in a draw?	No	$2.0k	64.0¢	Lost
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$5.1k	89.0¢	Lost
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$25.0k	13.5¢	Won
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$710	8.3¢	Won
Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-6.5)	Illinois Fighting Illini	$1.1k	54.0¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$115	52.0¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	$434	24.3¢	Lost
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$47.9k	72.8¢	Won
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$26.1k	24.3¢	Lost
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw?	No	$848	77.0¢	Won
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$12	23.0¢	Won
Counter-Strike: BIG vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Global Finals Playoffs	100 Thieves	$28	11.0¢	Lost
Will Fulham FC vs. AFC Bournemouth end in a draw?	Yes	$529	37.0¢	Lost
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$288	46.8¢	Lost
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes: O/U 137.5	Under	$2.5k	49.0¢	Won
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$1.2k	2.7¢	Lost
Texas Longhorns vs. Purdue Boilermakers	Texas Longhorns	$2.6k	25.0¢	Lost
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	No	$730	73.0¢	Lost
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	No	$42	63.0¢	Lost

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 5?Won
Yes$15 @ 99.1¢
Will Comcast close Warner Bros acquisition?Won
No$8 @ 99.9¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?Won
No$15 @ 99.8¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in September?Won
No$15 @ 99.9¢
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?Won
No$10 @ 99.6¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?Won
No$10 @ 97.5¢
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?Won
No$60 @ 99.9¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?Won
Yes$1 @ 97.8¢
Genius FDV above $20M one day after launch?Lost
No$14 @ 1.8¢
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Michigan WolverinesLost
Tennessee Volunteers$2.8k @ 24.0¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$6.4k @ 82.6¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$21.6k @ 17.3¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$446 @ 74.3¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$374 @ 2.5¢
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$1.9k @ 4.5¢
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?Won
No$1.5k @ 77.0¢
Will Powell say "Edging" 3+ times during October press conference?Won
No$5 @ 87.0¢
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$9.3k @ 6.2¢
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 219.5Won
Over$721 @ 72.0¢
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$13.6k @ 10.5¢
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 26?Lost
No$35 @ 5.2¢
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$16.9k @ 7.1¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?Won
No$24 @ 48.0¢
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$3.7k @ 3.2¢
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #20 PlayoffsWon
Ursa$23 @ 23.0¢
Genius FDV above $50M one day after launch?Lost
No$3 @ 3.9¢
Will FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw?Won
No$2.0k @ 77.2¢
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-5.5)Won
Connecticut Huskies$266 @ 53.0¢
UCLA Bruins vs. Connecticut HuskiesWon
Connecticut Huskies$3 @ 63.0¢
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston CougarsLost
Houston Cougars$2.6k @ 57.0¢
Will Arsenal FC vs. Sporting CP end in a draw?Lost
No$2.0k @ 64.0¢
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
No$5.1k @ 89.0¢
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$25.0k @ 13.5¢
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$710 @ 8.3¢
Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-6.5)Won
Illinois Fighting Illini$1.1k @ 54.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$115 @ 52.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Lost
No$434 @ 24.3¢
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$47.9k @ 72.8¢
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$26.1k @ 24.3¢
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw?Won
No$848 @ 77.0¢
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?Won
No$12 @ 23.0¢
Counter-Strike: BIG vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Global Finals PlayoffsLost
100 Thieves$28 @ 11.0¢
Will Fulham FC vs. AFC Bournemouth end in a draw?Lost
Yes$529 @ 37.0¢
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$288 @ 46.8¢
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes: O/U 137.5Won
Under$2.5k @ 49.0¢
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$1.2k @ 2.7¢
Texas Longhorns vs. Purdue BoilermakersLost
Texas Longhorns$2.6k @ 25.0¢
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?Lost
No$730 @ 73.0¢
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?Lost
No$42 @ 63.0¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

Loading recent trades…

Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$104	98.3¢
Will XRP reach $4.00 in October?	Crypto	No	$20	99.5¢
Will Waymo have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Tech	No	$15	99.9¢
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Economy	No	$11	99.8¢
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by December 31?	Crypto	No	$10	5.0¢
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Economy	No	$10	99.9¢
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Economy	No	$10	99.9¢
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	No	$10	99.9¢
Will MiniMax have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$10	99.8¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $15,000 by end of December?	Other	No	$10	99.3¢
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	No	$10	99.1¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Politics	No	$10	96.5¢
Will Mitch Landrieu win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	No	$8	99.9¢
Will Ali Asghar Hejazi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	No	$7	99.9¢
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	No	$7	99.7¢
Will Andy Warhol be #1 in global fine art auction turnover for 2026?	Culture	No	$7	99.9¢
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Economy	No	$7	99.8¢
2026 Balance of Power: Other	Politics	No	$7	99.5¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Politics	No	$5	99.8¢
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$5	99.8¢
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Culture	No	$5	99.4¢
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Politics	No	$5	97.7¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Politics	No	$5	99.2¢
Will Strava’s market cap be between $3B and $4B at market close on IPO day?	Business	Yes	$5	21.6¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 1.0% before 2027?	Politics	No	$2	99.7¢

Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$104 @ 98.3¢
Will XRP reach $4.00 in October?Crypto
No$20 @ 99.5¢
Will Waymo have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Tech
No$15 @ 99.9¢
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Economy
No$11 @ 99.8¢
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by December 31?Crypto
No$10 @ 5.0¢
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Economy
No$10 @ 99.9¢
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Economy
No$10 @ 99.9¢
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
No$10 @ 99.9¢
Will MiniMax have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?Geopolitics
No$10 @ 99.8¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $15,000 by end of December?Other
No$10 @ 99.3¢
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
No$10 @ 99.1¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Politics
No$10 @ 96.5¢
Will Mitch Landrieu win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
No$8 @ 99.9¢
Will Ali Asghar Hejazi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
No$7 @ 99.9¢
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
No$7 @ 99.7¢
Will Andy Warhol be #1 in global fine art auction turnover for 2026?Culture
No$7 @ 99.9¢
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Economy
No$7 @ 99.8¢
2026 Balance of Power: OtherPolitics
No$7 @ 99.5¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?Politics
No$5 @ 99.8¢
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$5 @ 99.8¢
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026?Culture
No$5 @ 99.4¢
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Politics
No$5 @ 97.7¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?Politics
No$5 @ 99.2¢
Will Strava’s market cap be between $3B and $4B at market close on IPO day?Business
Yes$5 @ 21.6¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 1.0% before 2027?Politics
No$2 @ 99.7¢