← Smart money
0x0dde…94c3
SharpEdge
+23.2pp
ROI
+22%
Win rate
100% @ 76.8¢
Brier
0.092
Resolved
33
Avg size
$106
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 100% (7/7) | +18% | 7 |
| Politics | 100% (3/3) | +15% | 3 |
| Geopolitics | 100% (1/1) | +47% | 1 |
- Other7 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (7/7)
- ROI
- +18%
- Politics3 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (3/3)
- ROI
- +15%
- Geopolitics1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +47%
Track record
100% hit · 11/11| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? | No | $464 | 87.0¢ | Won |
| Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 15 and May 22? | Yes | $563 | 88.3¢ | Won |
| Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? | Yes | $22 | 29.6¢ | Won |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | No | $632 | 68.2¢ | Won |
| Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair after July 3? | No | $5 | 50.0¢ | Won |
| Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30? | No | $160 | 86.0¢ | Won |
| Epstein client list released by June 30? | No | $154 | 88.0¢ | Won |
| Will Trump and Xi not shake hands during the day of their next meeting in 2026? | No | $17 | 87.5¢ | Won |
| LA Mayoral Election: Recount of 1st Round? | No | $182 | 88.3¢ | Won |
| Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026? | Yes | $918 | 86.5¢ | Won |
| Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026? | No | $383 | 86.8¢ | Won |
- No$464 @ 87.0¢
- Yes$563 @ 88.3¢
- Yes$22 @ 29.6¢
- No$632 @ 68.2¢
- No$5 @ 50.0¢
- No$160 @ 86.0¢
- No$154 @ 88.0¢
- No$17 @ 87.5¢
- No$182 @ 88.3¢
- Yes$918 @ 86.5¢
- No$383 @ 86.8¢
Recent trades
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Current positions
- No$50.3k @ 96.7¢
- No$24.6k @ 93.1¢
- No$16.5k @ 88.0¢
- No$12.3k @ 91.0¢
- No$12.2k @ 94.0¢
- Yes$8.9k @ 90.4¢
- No$8.1k @ 84.7¢
- No$7.5k @ 88.9¢
- No$7.0k @ 87.1¢
- No$5.8k @ 85.9¢
- No$5.2k @ 98.7¢
- No$4.7k @ 92.5¢
- No$4.6k @ 93.4¢
- No$4.0k @ 97.7¢
- No$4.0k @ 86.8¢
- No$3.5k @ 90.2¢
- No$3.5k @ 85.5¢
- No$3.3k @ 86.6¢
- No$3.0k @ 85.4¢
- No$3.0k @ 76.9¢
- No$2.7k @ 83.2¢
- No$2.7k @ 98.3¢
- No$2.7k @ 81.9¢
- No$2.6k @ 95.8¢
- No$2.5k @ 92.5¢
- No$2.5k @ 79.1¢
- No$2.5k @ 83.0¢
- No$2.3k @ 94.9¢
- No$1.8k @ 88.3¢
- No$1.8k @ 90.0¢