0x0ce3…cfd7

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x0ce3ebffeb6e2739e5669f7add509e25f3becfd7
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

-7.5pp

ROI

+5%

Win rate

25% @ 32.4¢

Brier

0.099

Resolved

245

Avg size

$60

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Sports	39% (9/23)	+14%	23
Other	39% (7/18)	-3%	18
Geopolitics	0% (0/12)	-100%	12
Politics	22% (2/9)	-5%	9
Tech	100% (1/1)	+35%	1
Crypto	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Sports23 bets
Hit rate
39% (9/23)
ROI
+14%
Other18 bets
Hit rate
39% (7/18)
ROI
-3%
Geopolitics12 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/12)
ROI
-100%
Politics9 bets
Hit rate
22% (2/9)
ROI
-5%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+35%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

30% hit · 19/64

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-20?	No	$159	67.0¢	Won
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-20?	Yes	$51	36.0¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?	Yes	$13	8.0¢	Lost
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	No	$66	13.0¢	Won
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	$33	29.0¢	Won
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?	Yes	$6	7.0¢	Lost
Will AS Roma win on 2026-08-04?	No	$91	15.3¢	Lost
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$191	3.7¢	Lost
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	$3.5k	62.0¢	Won
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	$350	56.5¢	Won
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw?	Yes	$1.1k	22.0¢	Lost
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	Yes	$214	77.0¢	Lost
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	$262	88.7¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?	No	$224	24.1¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	Yes	$114	25.5¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	No	$26	31.1¢	Lost
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$373	5.6¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?	No	$9	5.6¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$88	57.0¢	Lost
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$105	11.3¢	Lost
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	Yes	$15	31.0¢	Lost
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$20	1.6¢	Lost
Oilers vs. Utah	Oilers	$25	45.0¢	Won
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	No	$5	34.0¢	Won
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	$22	23.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$11	19.0¢	Lost
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$7	31.8¢	Lost
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	Yes	$60	35.3¢	Won
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	Yes	$6	10.0¢	Lost
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	Yes	$33	14.2¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?	No	$27	8.7¢	Lost
Iran full airspace closure by July 15?	Yes	$175	19.7¢	Lost
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?	Yes	$10	3.7¢	Lost
Will Modena FC vs. ACF Fiorentina end in a draw?	No	$14	3.7¢	Lost
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24?	Yes	$366	70.0¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	$32	19.6¢	Lost
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)	Belgium	$193	42.6¢	Lost
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)	IR Iran	$3.4k	60.0¢	Won
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	$183	66.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?	No	$262	21.8¢	Lost
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO3) - The International Playoffs	Team Liquid	$217	37.9¢	Lost
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	No	$69	62.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?	No	$8	30.0¢	Lost
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw?	Yes	$52	23.0¢	Lost
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5	Under	$24	21.0¢	Lost
Will Nigel Farage win at least 80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?	No	$35	77.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	Yes	$28	8.9¢	Lost
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	No	$31	66.0¢	Lost
Will Aston Villa win on 2026-08-04?	No	$9	18.0¢	Lost
Chicago White Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays	Toronto Blue Jays	$122	51.6¢	Won

Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-20?Won
No$159 @ 67.0¢
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-20?Lost
Yes$51 @ 36.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?Lost
Yes$13 @ 8.0¢
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?Won
No$66 @ 13.0¢
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?Won
Yes$33 @ 29.0¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?Lost
Yes$6 @ 7.0¢
Will AS Roma win on 2026-08-04?Lost
No$91 @ 15.3¢
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$191 @ 3.7¢
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?Won
Yes$3.5k @ 62.0¢
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?Won
Yes$350 @ 56.5¢
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw?Lost
Yes$1.1k @ 22.0¢
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?Lost
Yes$214 @ 77.0¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
No$262 @ 88.7¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?Lost
No$224 @ 24.1¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$114 @ 25.5¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Lost
No$26 @ 31.1¢
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$373 @ 5.6¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?Lost
No$9 @ 5.6¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$88 @ 57.0¢
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$105 @ 11.3¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Lost
Yes$15 @ 31.0¢
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$20 @ 1.6¢
Oilers vs. UtahWon
Oilers$25 @ 45.0¢
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?Won
No$5 @ 34.0¢
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?Lost
Yes$22 @ 23.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$11 @ 19.0¢
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$7 @ 31.8¢
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?Won
Yes$60 @ 35.3¢
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Lost
Yes$6 @ 10.0¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Lost
Yes$33 @ 14.2¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?Lost
No$27 @ 8.7¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 15?Lost
Yes$175 @ 19.7¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?Lost
Yes$10 @ 3.7¢
Will Modena FC vs. ACF Fiorentina end in a draw?Lost
No$14 @ 3.7¢
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24?Won
Yes$366 @ 70.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Lost
No$32 @ 19.6¢
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)Lost
Belgium$193 @ 42.6¢
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)Won
IR Iran$3.4k @ 60.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Won
No$183 @ 66.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?Lost
No$262 @ 21.8¢
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO3) - The International PlayoffsLost
Team Liquid$217 @ 37.9¢
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?Lost
No$69 @ 62.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?Lost
No$8 @ 30.0¢
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw?Lost
Yes$52 @ 23.0¢
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5Lost
Under$24 @ 21.0¢
Will Nigel Farage win at least 80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?Won
No$35 @ 77.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?Lost
Yes$28 @ 8.9¢
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?Lost
No$31 @ 66.0¢
Will Aston Villa win on 2026-08-04?Lost
No$9 @ 18.0¢
Chicago White Sox vs. Toronto Blue JaysWon
Toronto Blue Jays$122 @ 51.6¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?	Business	No	$180	85.0¢
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)?	Tech	Yes	$61	77.0¢
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$31	33.5¢
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	Yes	$12	4.5¢

Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?Business
No$180 @ 85.0¢
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)?Tech
Yes$61 @ 77.0¢
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?Tech
Yes$31 @ 33.5¢
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
Yes$12 @ 4.5¢