0x0c2c…dce3

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x0c2c51cd59335d6e5b1afa6ed865c1e7f352dce3
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+5.6pp

ROI

+11%

Win rate

69% @ 63.8¢

Brier

0.149

Resolved

882

Avg size

$10

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	57% (69/120)	+0%	120
Sports	63% (38/60)	-11%	60
Politics	72% (38/53)	+15%	53
Geopolitics	77% (17/22)	+25%	22
Culture	33% (1/3)	-37%	3

Other120 bets
Hit rate
57% (69/120)
ROI
+0%
Sports60 bets
Hit rate
63% (38/60)
ROI
-11%
Politics53 bets
Hit rate
72% (38/53)
ROI
+15%
Geopolitics22 bets
Hit rate
77% (17/22)
ROI
+25%
Culture3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-37%

Track record

63% hit · 163/258

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?	No	$4	74.0¢	Won
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	$2	56.6¢	Lost
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	$3	65.1¢	Won
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	$1	80.0¢	Won
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$2	20.0¢	Lost
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	$1	63.0¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	$20	61.0¢	Lost
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	$42	48.7¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	Yes	$1	45.0¢	Lost
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	No	$2	14.0¢	Lost
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	$15	90.0¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?	No	$5	88.0¢	Won
Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01?	Yes	$9	51.9¢	Lost
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	Yes	$4	65.7¢	Won
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 26?	No	$20	63.3¢	Won
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 26?	Yes	$12	49.4¢	Lost
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	$11	51.0¢	Won
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?	No	$5	72.0¢	Won
France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	Under	$2	84.4¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?	No	$21	86.6¢	Won
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	$2	48.0¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?	No	$26	82.3¢	Won
Will Taylor Swift get married in Manhattan?	Yes	$5	87.8¢	Won
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	No	$10	85.0¢	Won
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	$3	64.0¢	Won
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	No	$51	73.0¢	Won
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 19?	Yes	$5	74.7¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?	No	$113	79.7¢	Won
Will Austria win on 2026-07-02?	Yes	$3	7.7¢	Lost
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	$31	81.5¢	Won
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?	No	$106	81.2¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?	Yes	$10	73.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?	Yes	$5	69.0¢	Won
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	$2	89.0¢	Won
Will Australia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$2	75.5¢	Won
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 15?	No	$82	83.4¢	Won
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	Yes	$10	9.0¢	Lost
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	$2	54.0¢	Lost
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	$10	37.3¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$936	75.4¢	Won
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$1	83.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?	Yes	$10	82.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	$4	81.0¢	Won
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$17	86.7¢	Won
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$1	63.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?	No	$10	83.5¢	Won
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$20	89.0¢	Won
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	No	$220	61.2¢	Won
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	Yes	$44	56.7¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?	No	$20	79.0¢	Won

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?Won
No$4 @ 74.0¢
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?Lost
Yes$2 @ 56.6¢
Will France win on 2026-06-26?Won
Yes$3 @ 65.1¢
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26?Won
Yes$1 @ 80.0¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$2 @ 20.0¢
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?Won
Yes$1 @ 63.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$20 @ 61.0¢
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Lost
Yes$42 @ 48.7¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 45.0¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Lost
No$2 @ 14.0¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Won
Yes$15 @ 90.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?Won
No$5 @ 88.0¢
Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01?Lost
Yes$9 @ 51.9¢
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?Won
Yes$4 @ 65.7¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 26?Won
No$20 @ 63.3¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 26?Lost
Yes$12 @ 49.4¢
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?Won
Yes$11 @ 51.0¢
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?Won
No$5 @ 72.0¢
France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5Won
Under$2 @ 84.4¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Won
No$21 @ 86.6¢
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?Won
Yes$2 @ 48.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Won
No$26 @ 82.3¢
Will Taylor Swift get married in Manhattan?Won
Yes$5 @ 87.8¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?Won
No$10 @ 85.0¢
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?Won
Yes$3 @ 64.0¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?Won
No$51 @ 73.0¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 19?Won
Yes$5 @ 74.7¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?Won
No$113 @ 79.7¢
Will Austria win on 2026-07-02?Lost
Yes$3 @ 7.7¢
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Won
No$31 @ 81.5¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?Won
No$106 @ 81.2¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?Won
Yes$10 @ 73.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?Won
Yes$5 @ 69.0¢
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?Won
Yes$2 @ 89.0¢
Will Australia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$2 @ 75.5¢
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 15?Won
No$82 @ 83.4¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Lost
Yes$10 @ 9.0¢
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?Lost
Yes$2 @ 54.0¢
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Won
Yes$10 @ 37.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$936 @ 75.4¢
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$1 @ 83.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?Won
Yes$10 @ 82.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?Won
No$4 @ 81.0¢
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$17 @ 86.7¢
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$1 @ 63.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?Won
No$10 @ 83.5¢
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$20 @ 89.0¢
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?Won
No$220 @ 61.2¢
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?Lost
Yes$44 @ 56.7¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?Won
No$20 @ 79.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	Politics	No	$150	49.5¢
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?	Politics	No	$145	54.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	—	No	$139	74.2¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	—	No	$120	57.3¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?	Politics	No	$100	64.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	—	No	$90	39.3¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	—	No	$85	56.2¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	No	$81	58.8¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$70	84.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$70	72.4¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?	Politics	No	$70	49.3¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	—	No	$70	79.6¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?	—	No	$61	89.2¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$50	74.0¢
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$43	84.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?	Geopolitics	No	$30	86.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	—	No	$30	82.9¢
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$22	58.5¢
Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Politics	Yes	$22	35.4¢
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Politics	Yes	$22	35.6¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	—	No	$20	76.5¢
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Politics	No	$20	84.0¢
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Politics	No	$20	81.3¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	—	Yes	$20	75.0¢
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$20	72.6¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by September 30?	—	Yes	$20	89.6¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?	—	No	$20	89.9¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	—	No	$13	69.8¢
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	No	$10	95.6¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$10	21.9¢

Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Politics
No$150 @ 49.5¢
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?Politics
No$145 @ 54.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?—
No$139 @ 74.2¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?—
No$120 @ 57.3¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?Politics
No$100 @ 64.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?—
No$90 @ 39.3¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?—
No$85 @ 56.2¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
No$81 @ 58.8¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$70 @ 84.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$70 @ 72.4¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?Politics
No$70 @ 49.3¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?—
No$70 @ 79.6¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?—
No$61 @ 89.2¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?Geopolitics
No$50 @ 74.0¢
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?Geopolitics
No$43 @ 84.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?Geopolitics
No$30 @ 86.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?—
No$30 @ 82.9¢
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
Yes$22 @ 58.5¢
Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Politics
Yes$22 @ 35.4¢
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Politics
Yes$22 @ 35.6¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?—
No$20 @ 76.5¢
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Politics
No$20 @ 84.0¢
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Politics
No$20 @ 81.3¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?—
Yes$20 @ 75.0¢
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?Politics
Yes$20 @ 72.6¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by September 30?—
Yes$20 @ 89.6¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?—
No$20 @ 89.9¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?—
No$13 @ 69.8¢
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
No$10 @ 95.6¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Politics
Yes$10 @ 21.9¢