0x0c2c…dce3

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x0c2c51cd59335d6e5b1afa6ed865c1e7f352dce3
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+5.0pp

ROI

+12%

Win rate

68% @ 62.8¢

Brier

0.160

Resolved

1258

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	58% (125/214)	+9%	214
Politics	72% (83/116)	+14%	116
Sports	63% (38/60)	-11%	60
Geopolitics	77% (44/57)	+13%	57
Culture	33% (1/3)	-37%	3

Other214 bets
Hit rate
58% (125/214)
ROI
+9%
Politics116 bets
Hit rate
72% (83/116)
ROI
+14%
Sports60 bets
Hit rate
63% (38/60)
ROI
-11%
Geopolitics57 bets
Hit rate
77% (44/57)
ROI
+13%
Culture3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-37%

Track record

65% hit · 291/450

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will RZP-Zehut win 4-5 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	$10	72.0¢	Won
Will Otzma win 6-7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	$7	67.0¢	Lost
Will Otzma win 6-7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	$5	73.0¢	Won
Will Yashar win 20-21 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	$10	13.0¢	Lost
Will Yashar win 20-21 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	$10	47.4¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	$20	75.0¢	Won
Will Yashar win 22-23 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	$10	40.0¢	Lost
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	$10	84.0¢	Won
Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31?	No	$10	79.0¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31?	No	$20	97.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	$85	56.2¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	$70	84.0¢	Won
Will Ra'am win exactly 6 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	$10	34.3¢	Lost
Will Yashar win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	$10	94.5¢	Won
Will RZP-Zehut win 8-9 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	$10	82.0¢	Won
Will Dems win 10-11 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	$10	35.2¢	Lost
Will Joint List win 6-7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	$10	89.0¢	Won
Will Otzma win 10 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	$20	83.1¢	Won
Will RZP-Zehut win 10 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	$10	92.5¢	Won
Will Joint List win 8-9 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	$15	53.5¢	Lost
Will Yashar win 26-27 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	$10	90.0¢	Won
Will Yashar win 30 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	$19	94.3¢	Won
Will Yashar win 28-29 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	$10	93.5¢	Won
Israel election: will Likud lose seats?	Yes	$5	83.0¢	Won
Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	$22	35.4¢	Lost
Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Opp.	$2	68.5¢	Lost
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	$20	84.0¢	Won
Will Likud win 35 or more seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	$10	95.8¢	Won
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	$20	81.3¢	Won
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	$10	19.6¢	Lost
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	$20	70.0¢	Lost
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	$22	35.6¢	Won
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	$10	69.0¢	Lost
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	$40	51.1¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	$10	87.0¢	Won
Will Israel election happen as scheduled?	Yes	$20	95.9¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	$20	90.0¢	Won
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 17?	Yes	$1	52.0¢	Lost
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision?	Yes	$20	57.0¢	Won
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision?	No	$20	68.4¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 17?	Yes	$10	95.9¢	Won
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 12?	Yes	$30	90.0¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	No	$20	79.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	Yes	$10	97.7¢	Won
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 13?	Yes	$1	85.0¢	Won
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 13, 2026?	Yes	$10	94.0¢	Won
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 11?	Yes	$1	84.0¢	Won
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 10?	Yes	$30	94.0¢	Won
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?	Yes	$1	88.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?	No	$4	74.0¢	Won

Will RZP-Zehut win 4-5 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Won
No$10 @ 72.0¢
Will Otzma win 6-7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Lost
No$7 @ 67.0¢
Will Otzma win 6-7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Won
Yes$5 @ 73.0¢
Will Yashar win 20-21 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Lost
No$10 @ 13.0¢
Will Yashar win 20-21 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Won
Yes$10 @ 47.4¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Won
Yes$20 @ 75.0¢
Will Yashar win 22-23 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Lost
Yes$10 @ 40.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Won
No$10 @ 84.0¢
Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31?Won
No$10 @ 79.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31?Won
No$20 @ 97.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Won
No$85 @ 56.2¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Won
No$70 @ 84.0¢
Will Ra'am win exactly 6 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Lost
Yes$10 @ 34.3¢
Will Yashar win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Won
No$10 @ 94.5¢
Will RZP-Zehut win 8-9 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Won
No$10 @ 82.0¢
Will Dems win 10-11 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Lost
Yes$10 @ 35.2¢
Will Joint List win 6-7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Won
No$10 @ 89.0¢
Will Otzma win 10 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Won
No$20 @ 83.1¢
Will RZP-Zehut win 10 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Won
No$10 @ 92.5¢
Will Joint List win 8-9 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Lost
Yes$15 @ 53.5¢
Will Yashar win 26-27 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Won
No$10 @ 90.0¢
Will Yashar win 30 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Won
No$19 @ 94.3¢
Will Yashar win 28-29 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Won
No$10 @ 93.5¢
Israel election: will Likud lose seats?Won
Yes$5 @ 83.0¢
Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Lost
Yes$22 @ 35.4¢
Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?Lost
Opp.$2 @ 68.5¢
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Won
No$20 @ 84.0¢
Will Likud win 35 or more seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Won
No$10 @ 95.8¢
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Won
No$20 @ 81.3¢
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Lost
Yes$10 @ 19.6¢
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Lost
No$20 @ 70.0¢
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Won
Yes$22 @ 35.6¢
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Lost
Yes$10 @ 69.0¢
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Won
Yes$40 @ 51.1¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?Won
Yes$10 @ 87.0¢
Will Israel election happen as scheduled?Won
Yes$20 @ 95.9¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?Won
Yes$20 @ 90.0¢
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 17?Lost
Yes$1 @ 52.0¢
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision?Won
Yes$20 @ 57.0¢
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision?Won
No$20 @ 68.4¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 17?Won
Yes$10 @ 95.9¢
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 12?Lost
Yes$30 @ 90.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?Won
No$20 @ 79.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?Won
Yes$10 @ 97.7¢
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 13?Won
Yes$1 @ 85.0¢
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 13, 2026?Won
Yes$10 @ 94.0¢
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 11?Won
Yes$1 @ 84.0¢
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 10?Won
Yes$30 @ 94.0¢
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?Won
Yes$1 @ 88.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?Won
No$4 @ 74.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	Politics	No	$150	49.5¢
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?	Politics	No	$145	54.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	No	$141	68.2¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$126	74.7¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?	Politics	No	$110	64.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$95	44.1¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?	Politics	No	$90	93.1¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$80	73.2¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?	Politics	No	$70	81.9¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?	Politics	No	$70	49.3¢
Will Joint List win 10-11 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Politics	Yes	$69	63.9¢
Will Ra'am win 8 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Politics	Yes	$60	91.2¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$55	74.8¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	Politics	Yes	$53	91.0¢
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	Yes	$51	44.5¢
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?	Politics	No	$50	86.4¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?	Politics	No	$48	36.4¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	Politics	Yes	$43	86.0¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$43	81.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Politics	No	$40	69.3¢
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$40	85.4¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?	Politics	No	$35	74.8¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by February 28, 2027?	Politics	No	$31	71.9¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	Yes	$30	39.7¢
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$30	75.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$30	64.5¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$30	62.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15?	Geopolitics	No	$30	57.6¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Politics	No	$25	84.3¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$25	87.7¢

Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Politics
No$150 @ 49.5¢
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?Politics
No$145 @ 54.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
No$141 @ 68.2¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?Politics
No$126 @ 74.7¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?Politics
No$110 @ 64.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$95 @ 44.1¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?Politics
No$90 @ 93.1¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$80 @ 73.2¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?Politics
No$70 @ 81.9¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?Politics
No$70 @ 49.3¢
Will Joint List win 10-11 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Politics
Yes$69 @ 63.9¢
Will Ra'am win 8 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Politics
Yes$60 @ 91.2¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?Geopolitics
No$55 @ 74.8¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?Politics
Yes$53 @ 91.0¢
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
Yes$51 @ 44.5¢
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?Politics
No$50 @ 86.4¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?Politics
No$48 @ 36.4¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?Politics
Yes$43 @ 86.0¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$43 @ 81.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Politics
No$40 @ 69.3¢
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?Geopolitics
No$40 @ 85.4¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?Politics
No$35 @ 74.8¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by February 28, 2027?Politics
No$31 @ 71.9¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
Yes$30 @ 39.7¢
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$30 @ 75.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$30 @ 64.5¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Geopolitics
No$30 @ 62.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15?Geopolitics
No$30 @ 57.6¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?Politics
No$25 @ 84.3¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026?Politics
No$25 @ 87.7¢