0x0c15…9a45

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x0c154c190e293b7e5f8d453b5f690c4dc9599a45
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+12.6pp

ROI

+6%

Win rate

67% @ 54.1¢

Brier

0.221

Resolved

2916

Avg size

$64

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	50% (55/110)	+18%	110
Sports	38% (23/60)	+8%	60
Politics	75% (3/4)	+30%	4
Geopolitics	100% (1/1)	+69%	1

Other110 bets
Hit rate
50% (55/110)
ROI
+18%
Sports60 bets
Hit rate
38% (23/60)
ROI
+8%
Politics4 bets
Hit rate
75% (3/4)
ROI
+30%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+69%

Track record

47% hit · 82/175

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun	Connecticut Sun	$35.6k	58.9¢	Won
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm	Seattle Storm	$1.3k	20.0¢	Lost
Indiana Fever vs. Toronto Tempo	Toronto Tempo	$19.9k	18.0¢	Lost
Portugal vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5	Over	$2	44.6¢	Won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5	Under	$50	2.3¢	Lost
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-06?	No	$808	66.0¢	Lost
Atlanta Dream vs. New York Liberty	New York Liberty	$31.4k	47.0¢	Lost
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs G2 Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs	Hanwha Life Esports	$804	84.6¢	Won
France leading at halftime?	No	$207	38.0¢	Won
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$2	59.0¢	Won
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	$413	41.2¢	Won
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Team Secret Whales - Game 1 Winner	Team Secret Whales	$71	3.6¢	Lost
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$87	74.9¢	Won
Spread: France (-1.5)	Paraguay	$814	42.0¢	Won
New York Liberty vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 176.5	Over	$1.9k	51.0¢	Lost
Minnesota Lynx vs. Atlanta Dream	Minnesota Lynx	$396	55.0¢	Lost
Spread: France (-1.5)	Morocco	$564	65.1¢	Lost
Will France win on 2026-07-14?	No	$816	59.5¢	Won
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - KeSPA Cup Last Chance Qualifier	Hanwha Life Esports	$181	73.7¢	Won
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	$9	10.3¢	Lost
Seattle Storm vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 156.5	Under	$1.7k	51.9¢	Won
Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?	Yes	$657	55.0¢	Lost
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner	G2 Esports	$510	46.0¢	Lost
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	$102	55.0¢	Lost
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?	Yes	$463	61.0¢	Won
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 - Game 4 Winner	Bilibili Gaming	$261	46.0¢	Lost
Washington Mystics vs. Indiana Fever	Washington Mystics	$32.7k	32.0¢	Won
United States vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5	Under	$285	47.0¢	Lost
United States vs. Belgium: United States O/U 1.5	Over	$380	45.1¢	Lost
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	$88	53.4¢	Lost
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde 1st Half O/U 0.5	Under	$43	87.0¢	Won
Minnesota Lynx vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 184.5	Over	$1.9k	52.0¢	Lost
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 171.5	Over	$3	51.0¢	Lost
Portugal vs. Spain: Team to Advance	Spain	$808	67.0¢	Won
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals	No	$313	55.0¢	Won
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5	Under	$149	68.8¢	Lost
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs	Hanwha Life Esports	$587	58.0¢	Lost
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advance	Cabo Verde	$351	20.5¢	Lost
Will 5+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$100	32.3¢	Lost
LoL: Movistar KOI vs GAM Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group C	Movistar KOI	$380	74.0¢	Lost
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$801	63.9¢	Won
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals	No	$221	34.4¢	Lost
Will England finish 3rd place in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$72	63.9¢	Lost
Phoenix Mercury vs. Portland Fire: O/U 171.5	Over	$205	52.0¢	Won
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Team Secret (+1.5)	Team Secret	$354	58.0¢	Won
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5)	Algeria	$808	65.2¢	Lost
Florida International vs. Florida Atlantic: O/U 62.5	Under	$456	51.0¢	Won
Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to Advance	Switzerland	$813	45.0¢	Won
Will Belgium be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?	Yes	$1	50.9¢	Lost
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner	G2 Esports	$520	51.4¢	Won

Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut SunWon
Connecticut Sun$35.6k @ 58.9¢
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle StormLost
Seattle Storm$1.3k @ 20.0¢
Indiana Fever vs. Toronto TempoLost
Toronto Tempo$19.9k @ 18.0¢
Portugal vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5Won
Over$2 @ 44.6¢
Portugal vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5Lost
Under$50 @ 2.3¢
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-06?Lost
No$808 @ 66.0¢
Atlanta Dream vs. New York LibertyLost
New York Liberty$31.4k @ 47.0¢
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs G2 Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational PlayoffsWon
Hanwha Life Esports$804 @ 84.6¢
France leading at halftime?Won
No$207 @ 38.0¢
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$2 @ 59.0¢
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Won
No$413 @ 41.2¢
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Team Secret Whales - Game 1 WinnerLost
Team Secret Whales$71 @ 3.6¢
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$87 @ 74.9¢
Spread: France (-1.5)Won
Paraguay$814 @ 42.0¢
New York Liberty vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 176.5Lost
Over$1.9k @ 51.0¢
Minnesota Lynx vs. Atlanta DreamLost
Minnesota Lynx$396 @ 55.0¢
Spread: France (-1.5)Lost
Morocco$564 @ 65.1¢
Will France win on 2026-07-14?Won
No$816 @ 59.5¢
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - KeSPA Cup Last Chance QualifierWon
Hanwha Life Esports$181 @ 73.7¢
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Lost
Yes$9 @ 10.3¢
Seattle Storm vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 156.5Won
Under$1.7k @ 51.9¢
Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?Lost
Yes$657 @ 55.0¢
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports - Game 2 WinnerLost
G2 Esports$510 @ 46.0¢
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Lost
Yes$102 @ 55.0¢
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?Won
Yes$463 @ 61.0¢
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 - Game 4 WinnerLost
Bilibili Gaming$261 @ 46.0¢
Washington Mystics vs. Indiana FeverWon
Washington Mystics$32.7k @ 32.0¢
United States vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5Lost
Under$285 @ 47.0¢
United States vs. Belgium: United States O/U 1.5Lost
Over$380 @ 45.1¢
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Lost
No$88 @ 53.4¢
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde 1st Half O/U 0.5Won
Under$43 @ 87.0¢
Minnesota Lynx vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 184.5Lost
Over$1.9k @ 52.0¢
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 171.5Lost
Over$3 @ 51.0¢
Portugal vs. Spain: Team to AdvanceWon
Spain$808 @ 67.0¢
Erling Haaland: 1+ goalsWon
No$313 @ 55.0¢
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5Lost
Under$149 @ 68.8¢
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational PlayoffsLost
Hanwha Life Esports$587 @ 58.0¢
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to AdvanceLost
Cabo Verde$351 @ 20.5¢
Will 5+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$100 @ 32.3¢
LoL: Movistar KOI vs GAM Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group CLost
Movistar KOI$380 @ 74.0¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Won
Yes$801 @ 63.9¢
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goalsLost
No$221 @ 34.4¢
Will England finish 3rd place in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
No$72 @ 63.9¢
Phoenix Mercury vs. Portland Fire: O/U 171.5Won
Over$205 @ 52.0¢
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Team Secret (+1.5)Won
Team Secret $354 @ 58.0¢
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5)Lost
Algeria$808 @ 65.2¢
Florida International vs. Florida Atlantic: O/U 62.5Won
Under$456 @ 51.0¢
Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to AdvanceWon
Switzerland$813 @ 45.0¢
Will Belgium be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?Lost
Yes$1 @ 50.9¢
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports - Game 4 WinnerWon
G2 Esports$520 @ 51.4¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun	Sports	Connecticut Sun	$35.6k	58.9¢
Spread: Jaguars (-2.5)	Sports	Jaguars	$2.8k	54.0¢
Seahawks vs. Commanders: O/U 40.5	Sports	Under	$2.7k	51.0¢
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 175.5	Sports	Under	$2.6k	51.8¢
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 174.5	Sports	Under	$1.4k	50.9¢
UCLA vs. Maryland	Sports	Maryland	$593	49.0¢
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Politics	No	$324	52.5¢
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$230	94.9¢
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$197	68.3¢
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	No	$185	92.8¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$165	20.5¢
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$109	68.7¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	No	$97	37.0¢
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$87	50.1¢
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$61	69.5¢
Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$11	7.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$6	60.0¢
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Culture	Yes	$4	29.2¢
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$1	61.0¢

Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut SunSports
Connecticut Sun$35.6k @ 58.9¢
Spread: Jaguars (-2.5)Sports
Jaguars$2.8k @ 54.0¢
Seahawks vs. Commanders: O/U 40.5Sports
Under$2.7k @ 51.0¢
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 175.5Sports
Under$2.6k @ 51.8¢
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 174.5Sports
Under$1.4k @ 50.9¢
UCLA vs. MarylandSports
Maryland$593 @ 49.0¢
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?Politics
No$324 @ 52.5¢
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
Yes$230 @ 94.9¢
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$197 @ 68.3¢
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
No$185 @ 92.8¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$165 @ 20.5¢
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$109 @ 68.7¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
No$97 @ 37.0¢
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?Politics
Yes$87 @ 50.1¢
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$61 @ 69.5¢
Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$11 @ 7.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$6 @ 60.0¢
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?Culture
Yes$4 @ 29.2¢
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$1 @ 61.0¢