← Smart money
0x0af4…89b4
SharpEdge
+4.5pp
ROI
+5%
Win rate
51% @ 46.4¢
Brier
0.199
Resolved
2016
Avg size
$45
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 58% (343/591) | +6% | 591 |
| Politics | 38% (10/26) | +3% | 26 |
| Geopolitics | 0% (0/2) | -100% | 2 |
| Tech | 0% (0/1) | -100% | 1 |
| Crypto | 100% (1/1) | +16% | 1 |
- Other591 bets
- Hit rate
- 58% (343/591)
- ROI
- +6%
- Politics26 bets
- Hit rate
- 38% (10/26)
- ROI
- +3%
- Geopolitics2 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/2)
- ROI
- -100%
- Tech1 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/1)
- ROI
- -100%
- Crypto1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +16%
Track record
57% hit · 354/621- Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 30+ times during his Midterm Rally in Alabama?LostNo$116 @ 58.0¢
- No$52 @ 68.0¢
- No$2 @ 35.0¢
- Yes$48 @ 48.0¢
- No$29 @ 45.9¢
- Yes$27 @ 34.0¢
- No$34 @ 84.0¢
- No$81 @ 67.7¢
- No$7 @ 42.0¢
- No$74 @ 64.8¢
- Yes$81 @ 88.0¢
- Yes$3 @ 51.0¢
- Yes$151 @ 83.0¢
- Yes$37 @ 69.0¢
- No$2 @ 70.0¢
- No$103 @ 86.0¢
- Will Trump say "Terrible" or "Horrible" 10+ times at Charlie Kirk Memorial Event on September 21?LostNo$85 @ 79.0¢
- Yes$200 @ 66.0¢
- No$42 @ 21.0¢
- Yes$1 @ 4.0¢
- Yes$11 @ 75.0¢
- No$3 @ 15.6¢
- No$101 @ 64.0¢
- No$4 @ 70.0¢
- No$19 @ 15.0¢
- No$99 @ 35.9¢
- Yes$51 @ 63.0¢
- Yes$153 @ 17.8¢
- No$35 @ 26.0¢
- Yes$74 @ 59.8¢
- No$18 @ 59.0¢
- No$5 @ 26.0¢
- Yes$4 @ 20.0¢
- No$30 @ 33.0¢
- Yes$15 @ 57.0¢
- Yes$32 @ 80.0¢
- No$1 @ 13.0¢
- No$32 @ 53.0¢
- Yes$30 @ 83.6¢
- Yes$26 @ 13.0¢
- Yes$1.7k @ 38.2¢
- Yes$52 @ 55.0¢
- No$67 @ 87.0¢
- Yes$20 @ 28.0¢
- No$143 @ 32.0¢
- No$133 @ 65.5¢
- Yes$101 @ 11.0¢
- Yes$330 @ 66.0¢
- No$51 @ 86.4¢
- Yes$91 @ 71.8¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Politics | No | $1.5k | 70.0¢ |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | Geopolitics | Yes | $1.3k | 63.0¢ |
| U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027? | Politics | No | $1.0k | 81.0¢ |
| Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | Politics | Yes | $750 | 75.0¢ |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026? | Politics | No | $743 | 90.0¢ |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | Politics | Yes | $401 | 80.2¢ |
| Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026? | Politics | No | $400 | 80.0¢ |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | Politics | No | $239 | 64.0¢ |
| Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? | Politics | Yes | $102 | 17.0¢ |
| Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026? | Politics | No | $5 | 65.0¢ |
- No$1.5k @ 70.0¢
- Yes$1.3k @ 63.0¢
- No$1.0k @ 81.0¢
- Yes$750 @ 75.0¢
- No$743 @ 90.0¢
- Yes$401 @ 80.2¢
- No$400 @ 80.0¢
- No$239 @ 64.0¢
- Yes$102 @ 17.0¢
- No$5 @ 65.0¢