← Smart money
0x0751…c5ec
SharpEdge
+11.6pp
ROI
+6%
Win rate
89% @ 77.3¢
Brier
0.032
Resolved
90
Avg size
$1
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 57% (4/7) | +1% | 7 |
| Politics | 80% (4/5) | +30% | 5 |
| Crypto | 100% (1/1) | +43% | 1 |
- Other7 bets
- Hit rate
- 57% (4/7)
- ROI
- +1%
- Politics5 bets
- Hit rate
- 80% (4/5)
- ROI
- +30%
- Crypto1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +43%
Track record
69% hit · 9/13| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weed rescheduled by June 30? | No | $10 | 70.6¢ | Won |
| Weed rescheduled by June 30? | Yes | $1 | 33.0¢ | Lost |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? | Yes | $1 | 7.1¢ | Lost |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | $6 | 83.2¢ | Won |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | $53 | 88.0¢ | Won |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | $1 | 70.0¢ | Won |
| Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? | Yes | $4 | 14.1¢ | Lost |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | $1 | 72.0¢ | Won |
| Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass? | Yes | $5 | 83.6¢ | Won |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | Yes | $1 | 70.0¢ | Won |
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? | Yes | $4 | 4.0¢ | Lost |
| Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? | No | $1 | 71.3¢ | Won |
| Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? | No | $1 | 82.0¢ | Won |
- No$10 @ 70.6¢
- Yes$1 @ 33.0¢
- Yes$1 @ 7.1¢
- Yes$6 @ 83.2¢
- No$53 @ 88.0¢
- Yes$1 @ 70.0¢
- Yes$4 @ 14.1¢
- No$1 @ 72.0¢
- Yes$5 @ 83.6¢
- Yes$1 @ 70.0¢
- Yes$4 @ 4.0¢
- No$1 @ 71.3¢
- No$1 @ 82.0¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Politics | No | $32 | 73.6¢ |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | Politics | No | $17 | 50.5¢ |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | Politics | Yes | $11 | 70.0¢ |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? | — | No | $11 | 96.8¢ |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | — | No | $5 | 90.9¢ |
| Will the Republicans win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026? | Politics | No | $1 | 96.0¢ |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? | Geopolitics | No | $1 | 89.0¢ |
| Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2026? | Politics | Yes | $1 | 57.4¢ |
| Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Politics | Yes | $1 | 5.9¢ |
| Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? | Politics | Yes | $1 | 3.8¢ |
- No$32 @ 73.6¢
- Netanyahu out by end of 2026?PoliticsNo$17 @ 50.5¢
- Yes$11 @ 70.0¢
- No$11 @ 96.8¢
- No$5 @ 90.9¢
- No$1 @ 96.0¢
- No$1 @ 89.0¢
- Yes$1 @ 57.4¢
- Yes$1 @ 5.9¢
- Yes$1 @ 3.8¢