0x0430…bb31

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x043067f2b5e0da7369bde94121d1cf987c37bb31
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+6.5pp

ROI

+314%

Win rate

16% @ 9.1¢

Brier

0.108

Resolved

180

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	19% (10/53)	+247%	53
Politics	0% (0/20)	-100%	20
Sports	22% (2/9)	-57%	9
Geopolitics	0% (0/6)	-100%	6
Crypto	33% (2/6)	+22%	6

Other53 bets
Hit rate
19% (10/53)
ROI
+247%
Politics20 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/20)
ROI
-100%
Sports9 bets
Hit rate
22% (2/9)
ROI
-57%
Geopolitics6 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/6)
ROI
-100%
Crypto6 bets
Hit rate
33% (2/6)
ROI
+22%

Track record

15% hit · 14/94

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$2	0.2¢	Lost
Lakers vs. Magic	Magic	$1	24.0¢	Lost
Will Portugal vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Yes	$2	0.3¢	Lost
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	No	$5	1.8¢	Lost
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07?	Yes	$10	35.0¢	Lost
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?	No	$10	69.5¢	Won
Will Trump say "Waste" this week? (March 1)	No	$4	0.3¢	Lost
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02?	Yes	$107	23.7¢	Won
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	$14	14.0¢	Won
US strikes Iraq by February 28?	No	$12	0.1¢	Lost
US strikes Iraq by February 28?	Yes	$44	9.8¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	No	$1	0.2¢	Lost
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	$4	16.0¢	Lost
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	No	$9	1.5¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?	No	$11	75.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on April 19?	Yes	$2	4.2¢	Lost
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?	Yes	$10	10.7¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	$2	0.2¢	Lost
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	Yes	$10	1.1¢	Lost
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?	Yes	$20	0.6¢	Lost
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	Yes	$6	0.8¢	Won
Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final?	Yes	$1	2.1¢	Lost
Will Egypt win on 2026-07-07?	Yes	$10	8.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?	No	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01?	Yes	$10	11.3¢	Lost
Cavaliers vs. Pelicans	Pelicans	$1	35.0¢	Lost
Will the announcers say "Golden Goal" during the Brazil vs Norway FIFA World Cup Match?	Yes	$1	2.4¢	Lost
Russian strike on Poland by June 30?	Yes	$5	8.4¢	Lost
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	$2	0.3¢	Lost
Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in March?	Yes	$10	2.1¢	Lost
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$2	1.7¢	Lost
Ethereum flipped in 2026?	Yes	$9	50.4¢	Won
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	No	$6	0.1¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?	No	$8	54.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Uranium" this week?	Yes	$2	0.2¢	Lost
Will Sabrina Carpenter attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	No	$5	2.6¢	Lost
Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?	Yes	$10	20.0¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on September 22?	No	$1	0.8¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?	No	$4	75.0¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	$10	47.0¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on September 22?	Yes	$22	48.0¢	Won
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?	Yes	$5	21.7¢	Lost
Will France win on 2026-07-14?	Yes	$11	12.1¢	Lost
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 July 13-19?	Yes	$2	2.8¢	Lost
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$5	50.0¢	Won
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$5	50.0¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?	Yes	$10	3.8¢	Lost
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026?	No	$5	1.9¢	Lost
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 July 13-19?	Yes	$2	2.8¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?	Yes	$0	0.0¢	Lost

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.2¢
Lakers vs. MagicLost
Magic$1 @ 24.0¢
Will Portugal vs. Croatia end in a draw?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.3¢
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?Lost
No$5 @ 1.8¢
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07?Lost
Yes$10 @ 35.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?Won
No$10 @ 69.5¢
Will Trump say "Waste" this week? (March 1)Lost
No$4 @ 0.3¢
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02?Won
Yes$107 @ 23.7¢
Will Trump visit China by April 30?Won
No$14 @ 14.0¢
US strikes Iraq by February 28?Lost
No$12 @ 0.1¢
US strikes Iraq by February 28?Won
Yes$44 @ 9.8¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Lost
No$1 @ 0.2¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Lost
No$4 @ 16.0¢
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?Lost
No$9 @ 1.5¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?Lost
No$11 @ 75.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on April 19?Lost
Yes$2 @ 4.2¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?Lost
Yes$10 @ 10.7¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Lost
No$2 @ 0.2¢
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?Lost
Yes$10 @ 1.1¢
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?Lost
Yes$20 @ 0.6¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?Won
Yes$6 @ 0.8¢
Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.1¢
Will Egypt win on 2026-07-07?Lost
Yes$10 @ 8.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?Lost
No$1 @ 0.1¢
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01?Lost
Yes$10 @ 11.3¢
Cavaliers vs. PelicansLost
Pelicans$1 @ 35.0¢
Will the announcers say "Golden Goal" during the Brazil vs Norway FIFA World Cup Match?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.4¢
Russian strike on Poland by June 30?Lost
Yes$5 @ 8.4¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.3¢
Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in March?Lost
Yes$10 @ 2.1¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.7¢
Ethereum flipped in 2026?Won
Yes$9 @ 50.4¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?Lost
No$6 @ 0.1¢
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?Lost
No$8 @ 54.0¢
Will Trump say "Uranium" this week?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.2¢
Will Sabrina Carpenter attend Taylor Swift's wedding?Lost
No$5 @ 2.6¢
Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?Won
Yes$10 @ 20.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on September 22?Lost
No$1 @ 0.8¢
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?Won
No$4 @ 75.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?Won
No$10 @ 47.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on September 22?Won
Yes$22 @ 48.0¢
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?Lost
Yes$5 @ 21.7¢
Will France win on 2026-07-14?Lost
Yes$11 @ 12.1¢
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 July 13-19?Lost
Yes$2 @ 2.8¢
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$5 @ 50.0¢
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$5 @ 50.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?Lost
Yes$10 @ 3.8¢
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026?Lost
No$5 @ 1.9¢
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 July 13-19?Lost
Yes$2 @ 2.8¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$6	0.9¢
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in September 2026?	Politics	Yes	$4	3.8¢

Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$6 @ 0.9¢
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in September 2026?Politics
Yes$4 @ 3.8¢