0x03d6…81c3

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x03d66557c9112dabf2c8c9b20c3aaf10033c81c3
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+20.8pp

ROI

+31%

Win rate

91% @ 70.0¢

Brier

0.159

Resolved

131

Avg size

$13

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	92% (12/13)	+16%	13
Geopolitics	100% (13/13)	+22%	13
Sports	91% (10/11)	+34%	11
Other	67% (4/6)	+47%	6
Economy	100% (3/3)	+79%	3
Tech	100% (2/2)	+24%	2

Politics13 bets
Hit rate
92% (12/13)
ROI
+16%
Geopolitics13 bets
Hit rate
100% (13/13)
ROI
+22%
Sports11 bets
Hit rate
91% (10/11)
ROI
+34%
Other6 bets
Hit rate
67% (4/6)
ROI
+47%
Economy3 bets
Hit rate
100% (3/3)
ROI
+79%
Tech2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+24%

Track record

92% hit · 44/48

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$15	82.8¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27?	Yes	$14	77.0¢	Won
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$6	72.0¢	Won
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	Yes	$144	48.1¢	Won
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$4	70.0¢	Won
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?	No	$99	82.3¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?	No	$51	65.3¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?	Yes	$63	81.0¢	Won
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$19	70.4¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	$44	87.0¢	Won
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 17?	Yes	$13	66.0¢	Won
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$6	63.0¢	Lost
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$4	66.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 20?	Yes	$45	89.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?	No	$15	69.0¢	Won
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?	Yes	$68	75.2¢	Won
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$5	63.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?	Yes	$30	74.5¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?	Yes	$26	73.9¢	Won
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season?	Yes	$17	85.5¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	No	$6	87.0¢	Won
GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?	No	$21	77.1¢	Won
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$6	79.0¢	Won
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 16?	Yes	$20	73.7¢	Lost
GPT-5.6 released by July 7, 2026?	No	$42	83.0¢	Won
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?	No	$23	85.3¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$39	47.4¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$77	80.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?	Yes	$42	83.0¢	Won
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$3	53.0¢	Won
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 14?	Yes	$17	83.0¢	Won
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$7	68.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?	Yes	$14	63.6¢	Won
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	No	$23	76.4¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	No	$32	66.0¢	Won
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 22?	No	$32	73.2¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	No	$23	75.8¢	Won
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$3	57.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	Yes	$10	83.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 30?	Yes	$67	83.3¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 24?	Yes	$84	88.8¢	Won
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Yes	$90	52.1¢	Won
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$6	69.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 29?	Yes	$59	83.9¢	Won
Will Liverpool qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League?	No	$1	5.9¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	No	$80	85.1¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?	Yes	$66	79.9¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 28?	Yes	$60	85.6¢	Won

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$15 @ 82.8¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27?Won
Yes$14 @ 77.0¢
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$6 @ 72.0¢
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?Won
Yes$144 @ 48.1¢
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$4 @ 70.0¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?Won
No$99 @ 82.3¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?Won
No$51 @ 65.3¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?Won
Yes$63 @ 81.0¢
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$19 @ 70.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Won
No$44 @ 87.0¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 17?Won
Yes$13 @ 66.0¢
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$6 @ 63.0¢
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$4 @ 66.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 20?Won
Yes$45 @ 89.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?Won
No$15 @ 69.0¢
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?Won
Yes$68 @ 75.2¢
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$5 @ 63.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?Won
Yes$30 @ 74.5¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?Won
Yes$26 @ 73.9¢
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season?Won
Yes$17 @ 85.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?Won
No$6 @ 87.0¢
GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?Won
No$21 @ 77.1¢
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$6 @ 79.0¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 16?Lost
Yes$20 @ 73.7¢
GPT-5.6 released by July 7, 2026?Won
No$42 @ 83.0¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?Won
No$23 @ 85.3¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$39 @ 47.4¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$77 @ 80.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?Won
Yes$42 @ 83.0¢
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$3 @ 53.0¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 14?Won
Yes$17 @ 83.0¢
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$7 @ 68.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?Won
Yes$14 @ 63.6¢
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?Won
No$23 @ 76.4¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Won
No$32 @ 66.0¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 22?Won
No$32 @ 73.2¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Won
No$23 @ 75.8¢
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$3 @ 57.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?Won
Yes$10 @ 83.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 30?Won
Yes$67 @ 83.3¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 24?Won
Yes$84 @ 88.8¢
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?Won
Yes$90 @ 52.1¢
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$6 @ 69.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 29?Won
Yes$59 @ 83.9¢
Will Liverpool qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League?Lost
No$1 @ 5.9¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?Lost
No$80 @ 85.1¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?Won
Yes$66 @ 79.9¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 28?Won
Yes$60 @ 85.6¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	Politics	No	$94	79.4¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	Politics	No	$60	52.9¢
Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$37	62.0¢
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	Economy	Yes	$23	38.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$23	48.4¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$21	85.2¢

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?Politics
No$94 @ 79.4¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?Politics
No$60 @ 52.9¢
Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?Economy
Yes$37 @ 62.0¢
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Economy
Yes$23 @ 38.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$23 @ 48.4¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Politics
No$21 @ 85.2¢