0x024e…8fa1

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x024e23f86509d3847417b0ad1409ccc7424c8fa1
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+7.9pp

ROI

+8%

Win rate

89% @ 81.2¢

Brier

0.072

Resolved

294

Avg size

$14

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	89% (33/37)	+11%	37
Other	79% (19/24)	+1%	24
Geopolitics	80% (4/5)	+7%	5
Tech	100% (3/3)	+16%	3
Economy	67% (2/3)	-20%	3
Sports	100% (1/1)	+35%	1
Science	100% (1/1)	+13%	1
Culture	100% (1/1)	+30%	1

Politics37 bets
Hit rate
89% (33/37)
ROI
+11%
Other24 bets
Hit rate
79% (19/24)
ROI
+1%
Geopolitics5 bets
Hit rate
80% (4/5)
ROI
+7%
Tech3 bets
Hit rate
100% (3/3)
ROI
+16%
Economy3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
-20%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+35%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+13%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+30%

Track record

85% hit · 64/75

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Dan Green be the Republican nominee for FL-09?	No	$103	84.0¢	Lost
Will Lois Frankel be the Democratic Nominee for FL-23?	Yes	$21	89.4¢	Won
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	No	$104	86.2¢	Won
FDA approves Sanofi's Subcutaneous Sarclisa?	Yes	$64	83.8¢	Won
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?	Yes	$15	44.0¢	Won
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election by at least 15%?	Yes	$10	89.0¢	Won
Will Mandela Barnes win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	$104	84.9¢	Won
Will Jeremy Moss be the Democratic nominee for MI-11?	Yes	$82	86.8¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	No	$61	84.4¢	Won
Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?	No	$13	85.0¢	Won
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?	Yes	$163	80.9¢	Won
Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 31?	Yes	$29	81.7¢	Won
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in July?	Yes	$15	81.0¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?	No	$75	85.3¢	Won
Megaquake by July 31?	No	$64	88.2¢	Won
Will Taylor Swift get married in Manhattan?	Yes	$69	76.7¢	Won
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	$20	52.5¢	Won
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	$7	4.6¢	Lost
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the July Meeting?	Yes	$15	36.1¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$21	0.6¢	Lost
Will Matt Maasdam be the Democratic nominee for MI-07?	No	$27	89.9¢	Won
Will GPT-6 be released by August 7, 2026?	No	$55	87.6¢	Won
Will the South African Reserve Bank hike by 25 bps at the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$100	81.4¢	Lost
Will the Reserve Bank of India make no change to the policy repo rate after the August Meeting?	Yes	$40	69.1¢	Won
Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the July Meeting?	Yes	$86	87.9¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?	No	$4	88.0¢	Won
Will Aisha Wahab win the CA-14 special election?	Yes	$26	84.4¢	Won
Will Mike Bouchard be the Republican Nominee for MI-10?	Yes	$6	86.0¢	Won
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	$40	5.6¢	Lost
Will Maria Brewer be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Tennessee?	No	$11	84.0¢	Won
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.7% in June?	No	$1	85.2¢	Won
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Yes	$30	79.6¢	Won
Will Ty Masterson win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	$93	85.8¢	Won
Will Trump meet with Joseph Aoun in July 2026?	Yes	$16	87.0¢	Won
Will Carnita Atwater win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Democratic primary election?	No	$55	88.7¢	Won
GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?	No	$37	88.4¢	Won
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	No	$26	86.0¢	Won
US x Cuba economic deal by July 31, 2026?	No	$12	89.0¢	Won
Will Tidö parties win a majority in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections?	No	$100	83.0¢	Won
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 350m?	No	$31	22.0¢	Lost
OG to win 2-0?	No	$25	87.6¢	Won
Will Matt Little be the Democratic nominee for MN-02?	Yes	$19	79.2¢	Won
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	Yes	$40	73.9¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$121	81.0¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$287	85.3¢	Won
Will Brian Mundubile win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?	No	$67	85.3¢	Won
Will Gavin Solomon advance from the AK-AL primary election?	No	$29	87.6¢	Won
Will Kai Newkirk be the AZ-04 Democratic nominee?	No	$100	87.3¢	Won
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June?	Yes	$38	16.5¢	Lost
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?	No	$10	87.0¢	Won

Will Dan Green be the Republican nominee for FL-09?Lost
No$103 @ 84.0¢
Will Lois Frankel be the Democratic Nominee for FL-23?Won
Yes$21 @ 89.4¢
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Won
No$104 @ 86.2¢
FDA approves Sanofi's Subcutaneous Sarclisa?Won
Yes$64 @ 83.8¢
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?Won
Yes$15 @ 44.0¢
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election by at least 15%?Won
Yes$10 @ 89.0¢
Will Mandela Barnes win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Won
No$104 @ 84.9¢
Will Jeremy Moss be the Democratic nominee for MI-11?Won
Yes$82 @ 86.8¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Won
No$61 @ 84.4¢
Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?Won
No$13 @ 85.0¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?Won
Yes$163 @ 80.9¢
Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 31?Won
Yes$29 @ 81.7¢
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in July?Lost
Yes$15 @ 81.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Won
No$75 @ 85.3¢
Megaquake by July 31?Won
No$64 @ 88.2¢
Will Taylor Swift get married in Manhattan?Won
Yes$69 @ 76.7¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Won
Yes$20 @ 52.5¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Lost
Yes$7 @ 4.6¢
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the July Meeting?Lost
Yes$15 @ 36.1¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$21 @ 0.6¢
Will Matt Maasdam be the Democratic nominee for MI-07?Won
No$27 @ 89.9¢
Will GPT-6 be released by August 7, 2026?Won
No$55 @ 87.6¢
Will the South African Reserve Bank hike by 25 bps at the July 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$100 @ 81.4¢
Will the Reserve Bank of India make no change to the policy repo rate after the August Meeting?Won
Yes$40 @ 69.1¢
Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the July Meeting?Won
Yes$86 @ 87.9¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?Won
No$4 @ 88.0¢
Will Aisha Wahab win the CA-14 special election?Won
Yes$26 @ 84.4¢
Will Mike Bouchard be the Republican Nominee for MI-10?Won
Yes$6 @ 86.0¢
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?Lost
No$40 @ 5.6¢
Will Maria Brewer be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Tennessee?Won
No$11 @ 84.0¢
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.7% in June?Won
No$1 @ 85.2¢
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?Won
Yes$30 @ 79.6¢
Will Ty Masterson win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election?Won
Yes$93 @ 85.8¢
Will Trump meet with Joseph Aoun in July 2026?Won
Yes$16 @ 87.0¢
Will Carnita Atwater win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Democratic primary election?Won
No$55 @ 88.7¢
GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?Won
No$37 @ 88.4¢
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?Won
No$26 @ 86.0¢
US x Cuba economic deal by July 31, 2026?Won
No$12 @ 89.0¢
Will Tidö parties win a majority in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections?Won
No$100 @ 83.0¢
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 350m?Lost
No$31 @ 22.0¢
OG to win 2-0?Won
No$25 @ 87.6¢
Will Matt Little be the Democratic nominee for MN-02?Won
Yes$19 @ 79.2¢
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?Won
Yes$40 @ 73.9¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$121 @ 81.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$287 @ 85.3¢
Will Brian Mundubile win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?Won
No$67 @ 85.3¢
Will Gavin Solomon advance from the AK-AL primary election?Won
No$29 @ 87.6¢
Will Kai Newkirk be the AZ-04 Democratic nominee?Won
No$100 @ 87.3¢
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June?Lost
Yes$38 @ 16.5¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?Won
No$10 @ 87.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
First Round Outright Winner in the Georgia Governor Election?	Politics	Yes	$356	89.3¢
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Politics	No	$249	91.6¢
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$225	90.5¢
Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$223	88.5¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$170	79.6¢
First Round Outright Winner in the GA-04 House Election?	Politics	Yes	$150	97.2¢
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Science	No	$138	92.3¢
Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Science	No	$122	89.5¢
Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?	Politics	No	$120	78.8¢
Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?	Politics	No	$120	89.6¢
Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	Tech	No	$120	85.0¢
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by September 30?	Politics	No	$119	94.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by September 30?	Geopolitics	No	$119	89.0¢
Will any aircraft land or take off at Kyiv Boryspil Airport by September 30?	Politics	No	$119	89.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$115	92.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the TX-21 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$103	84.0¢
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?	Politics	No	$99	92.1¢
Will Angelo Coronel win the second-most votes in the 2026 Bahia Senate election?	Politics	No	$99	82.2¢
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by September 30?	Politics	No	$99	97.9¢
Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election?	Politics	Yes	$97	80.6¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$85	88.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the TX-26 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$84	87.6¢
Will the Republican Party win the TX-31 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$84	84.7¢
Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?	Politics	Yes	$79	92.0¢
AI bubble burst in 2026?	Tech	No	$68	84.2¢
Venezuelan oil added to Strategic Petroleum Reserve by September 30?	Politics	No	$67	95.2¢
Will Ken Welch win the St. Petersburg mayoral election?	Politics	No	$65	90.2¢
Will Douglas Ruas win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?	Politics	No	$62	91.5¢
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?	Politics	No	$61	93.8¢
Will Juan Branco be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	No	$61	87.0¢

First Round Outright Winner in the Georgia Governor Election?Politics
Yes$356 @ 89.3¢
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
No$249 @ 91.6¢
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Economy
Yes$225 @ 90.5¢
Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026?Politics
No$223 @ 88.5¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$170 @ 79.6¢
First Round Outright Winner in the GA-04 House Election?Politics
Yes$150 @ 97.2¢
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?Science
No$138 @ 92.3¢
Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?Science
No$122 @ 89.5¢
Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?Politics
No$120 @ 78.8¢
Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?Politics
No$120 @ 89.6¢
Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?Tech
No$120 @ 85.0¢
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by September 30?Politics
No$119 @ 94.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by September 30?Geopolitics
No$119 @ 89.0¢
Will any aircraft land or take off at Kyiv Boryspil Airport by September 30?Politics
No$119 @ 89.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$115 @ 92.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the TX-21 House seat?Politics
Yes$103 @ 84.0¢
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?Politics
No$99 @ 92.1¢
Will Angelo Coronel win the second-most votes in the 2026 Bahia Senate election?Politics
No$99 @ 82.2¢
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by September 30?Politics
No$99 @ 97.9¢
Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election?Politics
Yes$97 @ 80.6¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$85 @ 88.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the TX-26 House seat?Politics
Yes$84 @ 87.6¢
Will the Republican Party win the TX-31 House seat?Politics
Yes$84 @ 84.7¢
Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?Politics
Yes$79 @ 92.0¢
AI bubble burst in 2026?Tech
No$68 @ 84.2¢
Venezuelan oil added to Strategic Petroleum Reserve by September 30?Politics
No$67 @ 95.2¢
Will Ken Welch win the St. Petersburg mayoral election?Politics
No$65 @ 90.2¢
Will Douglas Ruas win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?Politics
No$62 @ 91.5¢
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?Politics
No$61 @ 93.8¢
Will Juan Branco be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
No$61 @ 87.0¢