0x01e6…3641

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x01e607d27875e10bb09fcf3309c899a664313641
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+24.6pp

ROI

+27%

Win rate

89% @ 64.2¢

Brier

0.175

Resolved

240

Avg size

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	67% (18/27)	+53%	27
Other	63% (15/24)	+2%	24
Geopolitics	100% (2/2)	+14%	2

Politics27 bets
Hit rate
67% (18/27)
ROI
+53%
Other24 bets
Hit rate
63% (15/24)
ROI
+2%
Geopolitics2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+14%

Track record

66% hit · 35/53

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$61	62.0¢	Won
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	$8	49.9¢	Won
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	$7	66.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$2	66.0¢	Won
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	$13	81.3¢	Won
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	No	$25	60.1¢	Lost
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	$80	79.7¢	Won
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	$4	81.7¢	Won
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	No	$21	60.9¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?	Yes	$7	86.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?	No	$3	49.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?	Yes	$8	79.5¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	$70	71.9¢	Won
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	Yes	$3	59.0¢	Lost
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%?	Yes	$3	29.0¢	Lost
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	$17	88.3¢	Won
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?	No	$18	87.2¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	No	$4	77.0¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	$45	69.1¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	No	$4	66.8¢	Won
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?	No	$46	80.3¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	$7	87.0¢	Won
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	No	$17	82.5¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?	Yes	$22	84.1¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?	Yes	$36	62.1¢	Won
Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	No	$24	83.5¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	$3	53.0¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$15	79.4¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?	No	$4	33.0¢	Lost
US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?	Yes	$33	60.8¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	No	$10	25.0¢	Lost
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	$11	49.5¢	Lost
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.4–0.5%?	Yes	$2	5.3¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?	No	$7	84.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?	Yes	$1	51.0¢	Lost
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?	No	$12	88.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?	Yes	$6	87.0¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	$130	38.5¢	Won
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?	Yes	$11	88.4¢	Won
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+?	No	$31	65.0¢	Won
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	$4	68.0¢	Lost
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	$6	53.8¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	$39	79.1¢	Won
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	$21	74.6¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	Yes	$63	70.9¢	Won
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$138	72.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	$2	57.0¢	Lost
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	$6	84.0¢	Won
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%?	Yes	$47	81.0¢	Won
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?	No	$4	56.9¢	Won

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$61 @ 62.0¢
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Won
No$8 @ 49.9¢
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Lost
Yes$7 @ 66.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$2 @ 66.0¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Won
No$13 @ 81.3¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Lost
No$25 @ 60.1¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Won
Yes$80 @ 79.7¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Won
No$4 @ 81.7¢
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?Won
No$21 @ 60.9¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?Won
Yes$7 @ 86.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?Lost
No$3 @ 49.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?Won
Yes$8 @ 79.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Won
No$70 @ 71.9¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Lost
Yes$3 @ 59.0¢
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%?Lost
Yes$3 @ 29.0¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?Won
No$17 @ 88.3¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?Won
No$18 @ 87.2¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Lost
No$4 @ 77.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Won
Yes$45 @ 69.1¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Won
No$4 @ 66.8¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?Lost
No$46 @ 80.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Won
No$7 @ 87.0¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Won
No$17 @ 82.5¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?Won
Yes$22 @ 84.1¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?Won
Yes$36 @ 62.1¢
Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Won
No$24 @ 83.5¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Won
No$3 @ 53.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$15 @ 79.4¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$4 @ 33.0¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?Lost
Yes$33 @ 60.8¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$10 @ 25.0¢
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?Lost
Yes$11 @ 49.5¢
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.4–0.5%?Lost
Yes$2 @ 5.3¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?Won
No$7 @ 84.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 51.0¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?Won
No$12 @ 88.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?Won
Yes$6 @ 87.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Won
Yes$130 @ 38.5¢
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?Won
Yes$11 @ 88.4¢
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+?Won
No$31 @ 65.0¢
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Lost
No$4 @ 68.0¢
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Won
Yes$6 @ 53.8¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Won
No$39 @ 79.1¢
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$21 @ 74.6¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?Won
Yes$63 @ 70.9¢
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
Yes$138 @ 72.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Lost
No$2 @ 57.0¢
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Won
No$6 @ 84.0¢
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%?Won
Yes$47 @ 81.0¢
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?Won
No$4 @ 56.9¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Politics	Yes	$141	73.4¢
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Politics	Yes	$61	98.9¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$47	82.2¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	—	Yes	$32	63.5¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	—	Yes	$31	85.0¢
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Politics	Yes	$30	86.1¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$27	87.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	—	No	$20	87.6¢
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$14	68.1¢
Will voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	Politics	No	$7	90.4¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	No	$5	64.8¢
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$4	56.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$3	49.0¢
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	Politics	Yes	$2	78.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	—	No	$2	77.8¢
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Politics	Yes	$1	5.9¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Politics	No	$1	71.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1	70.0¢

Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Politics
Yes$141 @ 73.4¢
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Politics
Yes$61 @ 98.9¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
Yes$47 @ 82.2¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?—
Yes$32 @ 63.5¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?—
Yes$31 @ 85.0¢
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Politics
Yes$30 @ 86.1¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$27 @ 87.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?—
No$20 @ 87.6¢
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?Politics
Yes$14 @ 68.1¢
Will voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?Politics
No$7 @ 90.4¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
No$5 @ 64.8¢
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$4 @ 56.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$3 @ 49.0¢
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026Politics
Yes$2 @ 78.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?—
No$2 @ 77.8¢
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Politics
Yes$1 @ 5.9¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Politics
No$1 @ 71.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$1 @ 70.0¢