0x000d…758e

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x000d257d2dc7616feaef4ae0f14600fdf50a758e
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

-3.1pp

ROI

+5%

Win rate

67% @ 70.0¢

Brier

0.191

Resolved

1454

Avg size

$1.8k

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	68% (107/157)	+4%	157
Politics	85% (89/105)	+7%	105
Geopolitics	80% (12/15)	+8%	15
Sports	71% (5/7)	+5%	7

Other157 bets
Hit rate
68% (107/157)
ROI
+4%
Politics105 bets
Hit rate
85% (89/105)
ROI
+7%
Geopolitics15 bets
Hit rate
80% (12/15)
ROI
+8%
Sports7 bets
Hit rate
71% (5/7)
ROI
+5%

Track record

75% hit · 213/284

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	No	$16.2k	95.0¢	Won
Will Nithya Raman win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election?	No	$219	95.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 13, 2026?	No	$5.1k	94.9¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 11, 2026?	No	$30.4k	95.6¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 10, 2026?	No	$1.8k	90.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026?	No	$4.8k	91.9¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 12, 2026?	No	$6.1k	92.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 9, 2026?	No	$17.1k	94.4¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	$2.3k	22.0¢	Lost
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in July?	Yes	$106	1.3¢	Lost
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	$12.4k	37.2¢	Won
Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-01 House seat?	Yes	$18.1k	71.9¢	Won
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	$49	53.0¢	Lost
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	$16.1k	88.0¢	Won
Will the Democrats win Tarrant County in the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$2.5k	92.0¢	Won
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	$148.0k	81.5¢	Won
Will the Republicans win the Arizona governor race in 2026?	No	$1.7k	92.0¢	Won
Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?	Yes	$5.5k	92.0¢	Won
Will the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$175	92.8¢	Won
Will the Democratic Party win the OH-07 House seat?	Yes	$8.2k	78.8¢	Won
Will the Republican Party win the OH-07 House seat?	No	$668	80.0¢	Won
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	No	$2.3k	68.0¢	Won
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$37.8k	69.8¢	Won
Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	No	$4.5k	91.0¢	Won
Will the Democratic Party win the CO-08 House seat?	Yes	$1.6k	83.7¢	Won
Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?	Yes	$72	64.0¢	Won
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$591	92.0¢	Won
Will the Democratic Party win the IA-01 House seat?	Yes	$2.3k	83.9¢	Won
Will Democrats sweep the Minnesota Senate and Governor elections?	Yes	$570	89.0¢	Won
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	$7.4k	64.0¢	Won
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	$3.0k	35.3¢	Lost
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	$5.0k	69.2¢	Won
Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026?	Yes	$13.0k	89.0¢	Won
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$181	61.0¢	Won
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?	Yes	$518	20.7¢	Lost
Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-07 House seat?	Yes	$9.3k	85.9¢	Won
Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$7	85.0¢	Won
Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$4.0k	88.5¢	Won
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?	No	$6.0k	97.1¢	Won
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	No	$5.7k	83.7¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	$17.1k	85.5¢	Won
France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?	No	$4.3k	89.4¢	Won
Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	$4.5k	83.5¢	Won
Will Pete Hegseth be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet in 2025?	Yes	$38	4.2¢	Lost
North Korea missile test by September 15?	Yes	$2.6k	42.9¢	Lost
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025	Yes	$42.3k	84.8¢	Won
Will the government shutdown end November 12?	Yes	$5.3k	40.9¢	Lost
US government shutdown by October 1?	Yes	$5.0k	70.3¢	Won
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?	Yes	$1.2k	2.0¢	Lost
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?	No	$446	68.1¢	Lost

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Won
No$16.2k @ 95.0¢
Will Nithya Raman win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election?Won
No$219 @ 95.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 13, 2026?Won
No$5.1k @ 94.9¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 11, 2026?Won
No$30.4k @ 95.6¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 10, 2026?Won
No$1.8k @ 90.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026?Won
No$4.8k @ 91.9¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 12, 2026?Won
No$6.1k @ 92.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 9, 2026?Won
No$17.1k @ 94.4¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Lost
No$2.3k @ 22.0¢
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in July?Lost
Yes$106 @ 1.3¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Won
Yes$12.4k @ 37.2¢
Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-01 House seat?Won
Yes$18.1k @ 71.9¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseLost
Yes$49 @ 53.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseWon
No$16.1k @ 88.0¢
Will the Democrats win Tarrant County in the Texas Senate race in 2026?Won
Yes$2.5k @ 92.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Won
Yes$148.0k @ 81.5¢
Will the Republicans win the Arizona governor race in 2026?Won
No$1.7k @ 92.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?Won
Yes$5.5k @ 92.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026?Won
Yes$175 @ 92.8¢
Will the Democratic Party win the OH-07 House seat?Won
Yes$8.2k @ 78.8¢
Will the Republican Party win the OH-07 House seat?Won
No$668 @ 80.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Won
No$2.3k @ 68.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Won
Yes$37.8k @ 69.8¢
Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?Won
No$4.5k @ 91.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the CO-08 House seat?Won
Yes$1.6k @ 83.7¢
Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?Won
Yes$72 @ 64.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?Won
Yes$591 @ 92.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the IA-01 House seat?Won
Yes$2.3k @ 83.9¢
Will Democrats sweep the Minnesota Senate and Governor elections?Won
Yes$570 @ 89.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Won
No$7.4k @ 64.0¢
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?Lost
Yes$3.0k @ 35.3¢
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Won
Yes$5.0k @ 69.2¢
Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026?Won
Yes$13.0k @ 89.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Won
Yes$181 @ 61.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?Lost
Yes$518 @ 20.7¢
Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-07 House seat?Won
Yes$9.3k @ 85.9¢
Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?Won
Yes$7 @ 85.0¢
Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?Won
Yes$4.0k @ 88.5¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?Won
No$6.0k @ 97.1¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?Won
No$5.7k @ 83.7¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Won
No$17.1k @ 85.5¢
France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?Won
No$4.3k @ 89.4¢
Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Won
Yes$4.5k @ 83.5¢
Will Pete Hegseth be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet in 2025?Lost
Yes$38 @ 4.2¢
North Korea missile test by September 15?Lost
Yes$2.6k @ 42.9¢
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025Won
Yes$42.3k @ 84.8¢
Will the government shutdown end November 12?Lost
Yes$5.3k @ 40.9¢
US government shutdown by October 1?Won
Yes$5.0k @ 70.3¢
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.2k @ 2.0¢
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?Lost
No$446 @ 68.1¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Politics	Yes	$86.7k	87.4¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?	Politics	No	$61.4k	95.7¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$56.4k	47.0¢
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$51.7k	76.6¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Politics	No	$39.2k	94.0¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	No	$37.1k	81.8¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$32.9k	92.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$32.3k	81.7¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$24.4k	82.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	—	No	$20.4k	89.9¢
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	—	Yes	$18.9k	74.4¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Politics	Yes	$17.5k	50.0¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$17.2k	97.9¢
Iran leadership change by November 30?	Politics	No	$11.8k	97.4¢
Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?	Politics	Yes	$11.4k	87.2¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$11.1k	93.5¢
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$6.9k	3.9¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$6.0k	30.0¢
Kash Patel out by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$5.8k	72.0¢
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Politics	Yes	$5.0k	21.9¢
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$4.7k	66.0¢
Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Politics	No	$4.2k	85.0¢
ICE shooter charged by March 31?	—	Yes	$3.8k	33.8¢
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30?	Politics	Yes	$3.3k	47.1¢
Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$3.3k	47.6¢
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$3.0k	35.3¢
Will Sarah Knafo advance to the second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election?	—	Yes	$2.6k	78.5¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$2.4k	18.0¢
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$2.4k	82.9¢
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$2.4k	1.9¢

Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Politics
Yes$86.7k @ 87.4¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?Politics
No$61.4k @ 95.7¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$56.4k @ 47.0¢
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$51.7k @ 76.6¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Politics
No$39.2k @ 94.0¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
No$37.1k @ 81.8¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
Yes$32.9k @ 92.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$32.3k @ 81.7¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?Politics
No$24.4k @ 82.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?—
No$20.4k @ 89.9¢
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?—
Yes$18.9k @ 74.4¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Politics
Yes$17.5k @ 50.0¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?Geopolitics
No$17.2k @ 97.9¢
Iran leadership change by November 30?Politics
No$11.8k @ 97.4¢
Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?Politics
Yes$11.4k @ 87.2¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
Yes$11.1k @ 93.5¢
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
Yes$6.9k @ 3.9¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
Yes$6.0k @ 30.0¢
Kash Patel out by December 31?Politics
Yes$5.8k @ 72.0¢
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Politics
Yes$5.0k @ 21.9¢
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$4.7k @ 66.0¢
Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Politics
No$4.2k @ 85.0¢
ICE shooter charged by March 31?—
Yes$3.8k @ 33.8¢
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30?Politics
Yes$3.3k @ 47.1¢
Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
Yes$3.3k @ 47.6¢
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
Yes$3.0k @ 35.3¢
Will Sarah Knafo advance to the second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election?—
Yes$2.6k @ 78.5¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$2.4k @ 18.0¢
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$2.4k @ 82.9¢
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$2.4k @ 1.9¢