0xcdb1…276c

Прибыльный

Эдж

-85.0pp

ROI

+35%

Доля побед

3% @ 87.7¢

Brier

0.773

Сделок

3163

Ср. размер

$22

Динамика ROI

Специализация по сферам

Сфера	Попадания	ROI	Ставки
Политика	71% (10/14)	+37%	14
Other	75% (3/4)	+8%	4
Экономика	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Геополитика	100% (1/1)	+14%	1

Политика14 ставки
Попадания
71% (10/14)
ROI
+37%
Other4 ставки
Попадания
75% (3/4)
ROI
+8%
Экономика2 ставки
Попадания
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Геополитика1 ставки
Попадания
100% (1/1)
ROI
+14%

История результатов

67% попаданий · 14/21

Рынок	Исход	Размер	Вход	Итог
Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?	Yes	$670	67.0¢	Победа
Sweden Parliamentary Election: More Votes to SD or M?	M	$35	26.8¢	Победа
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through September 22?	Yes	$15	77.0¢	Победа
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?	No	$859	64.0¢	Победа
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?	Yes	$335	27.6¢	Поражение
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?	Yes	$546	68.9¢	Победа
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	No	$1.1k	57.8¢	Поражение
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	Yes	$659	40.0¢	Победа
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?	Yes	$1.2k	61.0¢	Победа
Will Steve Witkoff visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$212	87.7¢	Победа
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	$22	21.5¢	Поражение
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 20?	Yes	$52	76.9¢	Победа
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	$1.7k	17.0¢	Поражение
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$38.8k	57.2¢	Победа
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Yes	$51	22.7¢	Поражение
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	$7.8k	46.0¢	Победа
Sweden Parliamentary Election: Örebropartiet Win Seats?	No	$351	63.4¢	Победа
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 22?	No	$560	62.6¢	Победа
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	No	$13.5k	89.0¢	Поражение
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	Yes	$89	20.0¢	Поражение
Will Mark Zuckerberg attend the White House state dinner for Xi Jinping?	Yes	$356	79.8¢	Победа

Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?Победа
Yes$670 @ 67.0¢
Sweden Parliamentary Election: More Votes to SD or M?Победа
M$35 @ 26.8¢
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through September 22?Победа
Yes$15 @ 77.0¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?Победа
No$859 @ 64.0¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?Поражение
Yes$335 @ 27.6¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?Победа
Yes$546 @ 68.9¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Поражение
No$1.1k @ 57.8¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Победа
Yes$659 @ 40.0¢
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?Победа
Yes$1.2k @ 61.0¢
Will Steve Witkoff visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?Победа
Yes$212 @ 87.7¢
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?Поражение
No$22 @ 21.5¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 20?Победа
Yes$52 @ 76.9¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Поражение
No$1.7k @ 17.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Победа
Yes$38.8k @ 57.2¢
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?Поражение
Yes$51 @ 22.7¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Победа
No$7.8k @ 46.0¢
Sweden Parliamentary Election: Örebropartiet Win Seats?Победа
No$351 @ 63.4¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 22?Победа
No$560 @ 62.6¢
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?Поражение
No$13.5k @ 89.0¢
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?Поражение
Yes$89 @ 20.0¢
Will Mark Zuckerberg attend the White House state dinner for Xi Jinping?Победа
Yes$356 @ 79.8¢

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Текущие позиции

Рынок	Сфера	Исход	Размер	Вход
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Политика	Yes	$25.0k	50.0¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Политика	No	$25.0k	50.0¢
US recession by end of 2026?	Экономика	No	$10.6k	88.5¢
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?	Экономика	No	$6.3k	96.4¢
AI bubble burst in 2026?	Технологии	No	$3.5k	82.2¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?	Политика	No	$2.7k	95.9¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Политика	No	$2.5k	83.2¢
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.5% or higher before 2027?	Политика	No	$1.4k	97.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	Технологии	No	$1.4k	72.7¢
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.5% or lower before 2027?	Политика	No	$968	96.8¢
Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?	Политика	No	$925	92.5¢
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.25% or lower before 2027?	Политика	No	$754	95.9¢
Databricks IPO before 2027?	Бизнес	No	$744	86.0¢
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?	Крипто	Yes	$585	77.7¢
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Политика	No	$525	92.0¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?	Технологии	No	$497	94.8¢
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by September 30, 2026?	Технологии	Yes	$331	96.0¢
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?	Экономика	No	$243	91.0¢
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.25% or lower before 2027?	Политика	No	$233	95.7¢
Mistral AI IPO before 2027?	Бизнес	No	$180	90.4¢
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by September 30, 2026?	Политика	No	$164	97.3¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	Технологии	No	$125	74.6¢
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by October 31?	Политика	No	$104	87.8¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?	Политика	No	$95	95.0¢
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?	Политика	Yes	$89	88.9¢
Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026?	Спорт	No	$70	53.3¢
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.0% or higher before 2027?	Политика	No	$68	96.7¢
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in September 2026?	Политика	No	$60	98.2¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	Политика	No	$58	85.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the SC-01 House seat?	Политика	No	$53	71.0¢

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Политика
Yes$25.0k @ 50.0¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Политика
No$25.0k @ 50.0¢
US recession by end of 2026?Экономика
No$10.6k @ 88.5¢
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?Экономика
No$6.3k @ 96.4¢
AI bubble burst in 2026?Технологии
No$3.5k @ 82.2¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?Политика
No$2.7k @ 95.9¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Политика
No$2.5k @ 83.2¢
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.5% or higher before 2027?Политика
No$1.4k @ 97.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?Технологии
No$1.4k @ 72.7¢
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.5% or lower before 2027?Политика
No$968 @ 96.8¢
Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?Политика
No$925 @ 92.5¢
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.25% or lower before 2027?Политика
No$754 @ 95.9¢
Databricks IPO before 2027?Бизнес
No$744 @ 86.0¢
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?Крипто
Yes$585 @ 77.7¢
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?Политика
No$525 @ 92.0¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?Технологии
No$497 @ 94.8¢
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by September 30, 2026?Технологии
Yes$331 @ 96.0¢
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?Экономика
No$243 @ 91.0¢
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.25% or lower before 2027?Политика
No$233 @ 95.7¢
Mistral AI IPO before 2027?Бизнес
No$180 @ 90.4¢
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by September 30, 2026?Политика
No$164 @ 97.3¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?Технологии
No$125 @ 74.6¢
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by October 31?Политика
No$104 @ 87.8¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?Политика
No$95 @ 95.0¢
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?Политика
Yes$89 @ 88.9¢
Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026? Спорт
No$70 @ 53.3¢
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.0% or higher before 2027?Политика
No$68 @ 96.7¢
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in September 2026?Политика
No$60 @ 98.2¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?Политика
No$58 @ 85.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the SC-01 House seat?Политика
No$53 @ 71.0¢