0xffea…06c0

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xffeafb3a833da1d324af43edd7f106fe138a06c0
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+8.3pp

ROI

+19%

Win rate

49% @ 40.5¢

Brier

0.162

Resolved

1864

Avg size

$60

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	54% (51/95)	+22%	95
Politics	46% (30/65)	+16%	65
Crypto	33% (4/12)	+11%	12
Tech	20% (1/5)	-58%	5
Geopolitics	0% (0/3)	-100%	3
Sports	100% (1/1)	+67%	1
Culture	100% (1/1)	+79%	1

Other95 bets
Hit rate
54% (51/95)
ROI
+22%
Politics65 bets
Hit rate
46% (30/65)
ROI
+16%
Crypto12 bets
Hit rate
33% (4/12)
ROI
+11%
Tech5 bets
Hit rate
20% (1/5)
ROI
-58%
Geopolitics3 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/3)
ROI
-100%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+67%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+79%

Track record

48% hit · 88/182

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?	No	$195	41.1¢	Lost
Will STRC hit $100 by November 30?	No	$17	26.9¢	Lost
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	$476	64.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?	Yes	$216	23.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	Yes	$270	45.8¢	Won
Will Russia capture Rodynske by March 31?	Yes	$27	36.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$85	89.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?	Yes	$53	1.2¢	Lost
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	$35	11.0¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	$795	79.5¢	Won
Weed rescheduled by June 30?	Yes	$29	12.0¢	Lost
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 22?	Yes	$12	31.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$3.6k	12.2¢	Lost
ICE Shooter fired/resigns by March 31?	Yes	$7	3.0¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	$80	69.0¢	Lost
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?	Yes	$66	7.6¢	Lost
Will "Patient Zero" hit 60m first week streams?	No	$3	56.0¢	Won
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	$1.5k	60.1¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?	Yes	$60	55.8¢	Won
Will Russia enter Ternuvate by February 28?	No	$30	7.6¢	Lost
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?	No	$589	66.7¢	Won
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?	Yes	$6	59.8¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$581	29.4¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$1.9k	12.0¢	Lost
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	No	$476	9.7¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.4k	57.3¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?	No	$24	80.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$820	65.6¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	No	$347	69.7¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 21, 2026?	No	$13	9.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	Yes	$97	3.1¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in October?	Yes	$288	57.0¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$19	0.3¢	Lost
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by February 28?	Yes	$296	81.0¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?	Yes	$555	18.0¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$74	70.0¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$69	0.7¢	Lost
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	No	$128	22.7¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$4.6k	82.2¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	Yes	$256	5.3¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Lyman by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$177	57.0¢	Lost
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 5, 2026?	No	$75	84.8¢	Won
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	No	$5.3k	76.3¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? (March 29)	Yes	$10	80.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	Yes	$411	12.8¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	$49	81.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$113	7.5¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$1.8k	51.6¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$830	55.1¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	Yes	$5.1k	12.8¢	Lost

Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?Lost
No$195 @ 41.1¢
Will STRC hit $100 by November 30?Lost
No$17 @ 26.9¢
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Won
No$476 @ 64.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?Lost
Yes$216 @ 23.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Won
Yes$270 @ 45.8¢
Will Russia capture Rodynske by March 31?Won
Yes$27 @ 36.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$85 @ 89.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?Lost
Yes$53 @ 1.2¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?Lost
Yes$35 @ 11.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Won
No$795 @ 79.5¢
Weed rescheduled by June 30?Lost
Yes$29 @ 12.0¢
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 22?Lost
Yes$12 @ 31.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$3.6k @ 12.2¢
ICE Shooter fired/resigns by March 31?Lost
Yes$7 @ 3.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Lost
Yes$80 @ 69.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?Lost
Yes$66 @ 7.6¢
Will "Patient Zero" hit 60m first week streams?Won
No$3 @ 56.0¢
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Won
Yes$1.5k @ 60.1¢
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?Won
Yes$60 @ 55.8¢
Will Russia enter Ternuvate by February 28?Lost
No$30 @ 7.6¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?Won
No$589 @ 66.7¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?Won
Yes$6 @ 59.8¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$581 @ 29.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.9k @ 12.0¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?Lost
No$476 @ 9.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$1.4k @ 57.3¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?Won
No$24 @ 80.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$820 @ 65.6¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Won
No$347 @ 69.7¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 21, 2026?Lost
No$13 @ 9.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?Lost
Yes$97 @ 3.1¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in October?Won
Yes$288 @ 57.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$19 @ 0.3¢
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by February 28?Won
Yes$296 @ 81.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?Lost
Yes$555 @ 18.0¢
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$74 @ 70.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$69 @ 0.7¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?Lost
No$128 @ 22.7¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$4.6k @ 82.2¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$256 @ 5.3¢
Will Russia capture Lyman by March 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$177 @ 57.0¢
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 5, 2026?Won
No$75 @ 84.8¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Lost
No$5.3k @ 76.3¢
Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? (March 29)Won
Yes$10 @ 80.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$411 @ 12.8¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?Won
No$49 @ 81.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$113 @ 7.5¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$1.8k @ 51.6¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$830 @ 55.1¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Lost
Yes$5.1k @ 12.8¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$1.9k	35.6¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$1.5k	86.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$904	16.0¢
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$640	79.0¢
Papertrade FDV above $250M one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$302	73.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$271	22.6¢
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?	Tech	No	$236	85.3¢
Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$137	89.0¢
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$135	37.0¢
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$135	27.4¢
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$125	14.7¢
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	Tech	No	$66	17.3¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$37	7.8¢
Will STRC hit $100 by November 30?	Crypto	No	$17	26.9¢
Will Steven Cheung be the next White House Press Secretary?	Politics	No	$15	98.3¢
Will The Odyssey be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?	Tech	Yes	$2	36.0¢

Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$1.9k @ 35.6¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$1.5k @ 86.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$904 @ 16.0¢
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$640 @ 79.0¢
Papertrade FDV above $250M one day after launch?Crypto
No$302 @ 73.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$271 @ 22.6¢
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?Tech
No$236 @ 85.3¢
Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$137 @ 89.0¢
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?Crypto
No$135 @ 37.0¢
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?Crypto
No$135 @ 27.4¢
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?Crypto
No$125 @ 14.7¢
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?Tech
No$66 @ 17.3¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Politics
Yes$37 @ 7.8¢
Will STRC hit $100 by November 30?Crypto
No$17 @ 26.9¢
Will Steven Cheung be the next White House Press Secretary?Politics
No$15 @ 98.3¢
Will The Odyssey be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?Tech
Yes$2 @ 36.0¢