0xffea…06c0

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xffeafb3a833da1d324af43edd7f106fe138a06c0
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+13.3pp

ROI

+16%

Win rate

57% @ 43.7¢

Brier

0.156

Resolved

501

Avg size

$59

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	56% (19/34)	+19%	34
Other	67% (4/6)	+22%	6
Tech	25% (1/4)	-58%	4
Crypto	25% (1/4)	+22%	4
Geopolitics	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Politics34 bets
Hit rate
56% (19/34)
ROI
+19%
Other6 bets
Hit rate
67% (4/6)
ROI
+22%
Tech4 bets
Hit rate
25% (1/4)
ROI
-58%
Crypto4 bets
Hit rate
25% (1/4)
ROI
+22%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

51% hit · 25/49

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$85	89.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	$795	79.5¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$2.4k	9.8¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?	Yes	$6	59.8¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.4k	57.3¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?	No	$24	80.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	No	$347	69.7¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$19	0.3¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$69	0.7¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	Yes	$411	12.8¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$1.8k	51.6¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$830	55.1¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	$914	16.8¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	$759	60.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$21	63.2¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	$45	30.0¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	$40	70.8¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$427	39.9¢	Won
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	No	$553	25.4¢	Lost
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?	Yes	$1.3k	84.3¢	Won
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	$14	37.0¢	Lost
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?	Yes	$67	6.0¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	$140	22.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	$437	25.1¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$1.7k	76.7¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?	No	$56	25.9¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	$218	27.5¢	Lost
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	No	$197	34.9¢	Won
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	Yes	$129	9.2¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$6.2k	76.7¢	Won
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?	No	$57	81.8¢	Won
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?	Yes	$47	21.1¢	Lost
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$336	21.1¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	$152	40.4¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	$1.5k	61.1¢	Won
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8?	No	$24	5.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 23, 2026?	No	$41	75.1¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?	No	$649	37.3¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	Yes	$218	58.2¢	Won
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?	No	$457	13.5¢	Lost
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	$1.7k	83.0¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	No	$131	36.4¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	$219	47.9¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$956	37.1¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	No	$1.4k	79.1¢	Won
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?	No	$7	69.5¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?	Yes	$10	48.0¢	Lost
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	Yes	$11	13.4¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?	No	$235	33.4¢	Lost

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$85 @ 89.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Won
No$795 @ 79.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$2.4k @ 9.8¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?Won
Yes$6 @ 59.8¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$1.4k @ 57.3¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?Won
No$24 @ 80.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Won
No$347 @ 69.7¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$19 @ 0.3¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$69 @ 0.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$411 @ 12.8¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$1.8k @ 51.6¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$830 @ 55.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Lost
Yes$914 @ 16.8¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Won
No$759 @ 60.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$21 @ 63.2¢
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?Lost
No$45 @ 30.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?Won
Yes$40 @ 70.8¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$427 @ 39.9¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?Lost
No$553 @ 25.4¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?Won
Yes$1.3k @ 84.3¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?Lost
No$14 @ 37.0¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?Lost
Yes$67 @ 6.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
No$140 @ 22.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Won
No$437 @ 25.1¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$1.7k @ 76.7¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$56 @ 25.9¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$218 @ 27.5¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?Won
No$197 @ 34.9¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?Lost
Yes$129 @ 9.2¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$6.2k @ 76.7¢
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?Won
No$57 @ 81.8¢
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?Lost
Yes$47 @ 21.1¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$336 @ 21.1¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Won
Yes$152 @ 40.4¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?Won
No$1.5k @ 61.1¢
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8?Lost
No$24 @ 5.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 23, 2026?Won
No$41 @ 75.1¢
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?Lost
No$649 @ 37.3¢
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?Won
Yes$218 @ 58.2¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?Lost
No$457 @ 13.5¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?Won
Yes$1.7k @ 83.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?Won
No$131 @ 36.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Lost
No$219 @ 47.9¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Won
Yes$956 @ 37.1¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?Won
No$1.4k @ 79.1¢
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?Lost
No$7 @ 69.5¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?Lost
Yes$10 @ 48.0¢
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?Lost
Yes$11 @ 13.4¢
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?Lost
No$235 @ 33.4¢

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