0xffb0…fa37

Specialization by sphere

• Other515 bets

  Hit rate

  69% (353/515)

  ROI

  +13%

• Politics71 bets

  Hit rate

  80% (57/71)

  ROI

  +41%

• Geopolitics35 bets

  Hit rate

  69% (24/35)

  ROI

  +12%

• Culture2 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (2/2)

  ROI

  +39%

• Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31?Won
  No$80 @ 80.4¢
• Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?Won
  No$15 @ 81.0¢
• India air/missile strike on Pakistan soil by Friday?Won
  No$20 @ 40.0¢
• Another US strike on Venezuela by January 10?Won
  No$337 @ 84.2¢
• Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?Lost
  No$119 @ 19.8¢
• Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?Won
  No$281 @ 47.6¢
• Will anyone audibly fart during Digital Asset Summit?Lost
  Yes$60 @ 9.4¢
• Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?Lost
  No$624 @ 68.5¢
• Will Mitch McConnell retire before July?Won
  No$83 @ 83.0¢
• Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 10, 2026?Won
  No$25 @ 84.0¢
• U.S. Ambassador to Poland out by March 31?Won
  No$87 @ 87.0¢
• Israel military action against Iran in April?Won
  No$185 @ 87.0¢
• Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy in April?Lost
  No$15 @ 79.0¢
• Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by Friday?Won
  No$50 @ 87.0¢
• Russian strike on Poland by September 30?Lost
  Yes$187 @ 3.4¢
• Another Israel strike on Yemen in July?Lost
  No$57 @ 19.0¢
• Israel strike on Yemen by September 30?Won
  Yes$157 @ 88.4¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?Won
  No$218 @ 72.7¢
• Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?Won
  No$106 @ 53.0¢
• Will Russia capture Kupiansk by April 30?Won
  No$46 @ 86.6¢
• NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in 2025?Won
  No$176 @ 88.0¢
• Will Russia recognize Syrian government by March 31?Won
  Yes$12 @ 70.0¢
• Will Israel strike Syria on July 22?Won
  No$64 @ 88.8¢
• Will France strike Iran by March 31?Won
  No$753 @ 73.0¢
• Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?Won
  No$643 @ 74.2¢
• GPT-5.3 released by March 15, 2026?Won
  Yes$500 @ 89.3¢
• Another Israel military action on Yemen in May?Lost
  No$11 @ 1.1¢
• Will Trump meet with Putin or Zelenskyy first?Won
  Zelenskyy$315 @ 58.4¢
• Will Israel strike Syria on July 20?Won
  No$162 @ 80.5¢
• Will Trump publicly disparage Elon before July?Lost
  No$209 @ 35.1¢
• Will Russia capture Yunakivka before July?Won
  No$82 @ 24.0¢
• Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by January 31, 2026?Won
  No$142 @ 71.0¢
• Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?Won
  No$144 @ 72.0¢
• Will Buffett say "Supply chain" during May 3 Shareholders Meeting?Lost
  Yes$49 @ 68.0¢
• Maduro leaves Venezuela by December 31?Won
  No$333 @ 76.0¢
• Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Lost
  No$87 @ 29.1¢
• US x Iran ceasefire by April 10?Won
  Yes$1.4k @ 58.5¢
• Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?Won
  No$823 @ 83.7¢
• Will Tisza win at least 130 seats?Lost
  No$128 @ 68.0¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$305 @ 40.8¢
• Nothing Ever Happens: MayWon
  Yes$177 @ 59.0¢
• US x Iran meeting by February 13, 2026?Won
  Yes$173 @ 86.3¢
• Israel strikes Gaza by October 31?Lost
  No$354 @ 20.8¢
• Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?Lost
  No$741 @ 67.5¢
• Will UK strike Iran by March 31?Won
  No$1.7k @ 75.0¢
• US announces Afghanistan military base in April?Won
  No$17 @ 87.0¢
• Nothing Ever Happens Won
  Yes$131 @ 85.9¢
• Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by November 30?Won
  No$422 @ 84.0¢
• Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?Won
  No$74 @ 43.8¢
• Will Russia capture Rodynske by January 31?Won
  No$927 @ 57.5¢

Current positions

• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$1.5k @ 76.5¢
• Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Politics
  No$1.3k @ 58.3¢
• Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
  No$1.1k @ 82.4¢
• Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
  No$930 @ 75.2¢
• Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
  No$731 @ 58.2¢
• Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?Geopolitics
  Yes$480 @ 24.0¢
• Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?Politics
  Yes$208 @ 52.0¢
• Will Russia enter Kharkiv by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
  No$170 @ 94.2¢
• Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Politics
  Yes$168 @ 56.0¢
• Another NATO Article 4 invocation by October 31, 2026?Geopolitics
  Yes$104 @ 26.0¢
• Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?Geopolitics
  Yes$58 @ 12.0¢
• China ballistic missile launch by December 31?Geopolitics
  Yes$27 @ 16.0¢
• Iran leadership change by September 30?Politics
  No$0 @ 0.0¢