← Smart money
0xff1e…5e2d
SharpEdge
+32.7pp
ROI
+53%
Win rate
100% @ 66.9¢
Brier
0.155
Resolved
270
Avg size
$210
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 86% (6/7) | +129% | 7 |
| Politics | 100% (2/2) | +25% | 2 |
| Culture | 100% (1/1) | +15% | 1 |
- Other7 bets
- Hit rate
- 86% (6/7)
- ROI
- +129%
- Politics2 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (2/2)
- ROI
- +25%
- Culture1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +15%
Track record
90% hit · 9/10| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel military action against Lebanon on September 8? | Yes | $163 | 88.1¢ | Won |
| Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31? | No | $2.8k | 86.7¢ | Won |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? | Yes | $14 | 68.0¢ | Won |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | Yes | $14.8k | 42.4¢ | Won |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | Yes | $3 | 14.0¢ | Won |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | Yes | $19.9k | 79.6¢ | Won |
| Will John Ternus say "Fold" or "Folding" or "Foldable" 10+ times during his Apple Keynote? | No | $31 | 75.0¢ | Won |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | No | $18.4k | 80.0¢ | Won |
| Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 18, 2026? | Yes | $596 | 88.1¢ | Won |
| Will Trump say "Charlie" or "Kirk" during RNC Convention (Night 1)? | No | $24 | 44.0¢ | Lost |
- Yes$163 @ 88.1¢
- No$2.8k @ 86.7¢
- Yes$14 @ 68.0¢
- Yes$14.8k @ 42.4¢
- Yes$3 @ 14.0¢
- Yes$19.9k @ 79.6¢
- No$31 @ 75.0¢
- No$18.4k @ 80.0¢
- Yes$596 @ 88.1¢
- No$24 @ 44.0¢
Recent trades
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