0xfe93…8d0e

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xfe9339e4eca140c1a16f94a52b5cde4d29768d0e
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+4.2pp

ROI

+8%

Win rate

42% @ 37.6¢

Brier

0.205

Resolved

1357

Avg size

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	44% (206/472)	+10%	472
Politics	45% (40/89)	-8%	89
Crypto	46% (21/46)	+14%	46
Culture	46% (13/28)	+40%	28
Tech	50% (12/24)	+13%	24
Geopolitics	50% (10/20)	-22%	20
Economy	43% (6/14)	-24%	14
Science	27% (3/11)	-21%	11
Business	100% (2/2)	+264%	2

Other472 bets
Hit rate
44% (206/472)
ROI
+10%
Politics89 bets
Hit rate
45% (40/89)
ROI
-8%
Crypto46 bets
Hit rate
46% (21/46)
ROI
+14%
Culture28 bets
Hit rate
46% (13/28)
ROI
+40%
Tech24 bets
Hit rate
50% (12/24)
ROI
+13%
Geopolitics20 bets
Hit rate
50% (10/20)
ROI
-22%
Economy14 bets
Hit rate
43% (6/14)
ROI
-24%
Science11 bets
Hit rate
27% (3/11)
ROI
-21%
Business2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+264%

Track record

44% hit · 313/706

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will "A Toxic Love Story" be the top US Netflix movie this week?	No	$18	79.0¢	Lost
Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.0% and 0.8%?	Yes	$1	21.0¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed finish their Minecraft marathon by August 31?	Yes	$9	61.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on July 12?	No	$10	45.2¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on July 12?	Yes	$14	54.4¢	Won
Will Alibaba (BABA) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$16	63.0¢	Won
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?	Yes	$3	12.0¢	Lost
Russia Elections: A Just Russia (SR) Clears Duma Threshold?	No	$13	27.7¢	Lost
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?	Yes	$9	62.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 14?	No	$9	27.8¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 14?	Yes	$7	41.0¢	Won
Will "One Night Only" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 6m?	Yes	$1	17.0¢	Won
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?	No	$12	83.0¢	Won
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?	Yes	$6	13.5¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 25?	No	$5	13.9¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 25?	Yes	$29	76.0¢	Won
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?	No	$10	29.5¢	Lost
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?	Yes	$2	60.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on July 4?	Yes	$8	25.4¢	Lost
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1?	Yes	$17	47.3¢	Won
Will Warsh say "2008" or "Financial Crisis" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?	Yes	$29	55.0¢	Won
Will GPT-Bidi-1 be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$9	41.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on July 4?	No	$8	68.0¢	Won
Will the next UK parliament by-election be called by September 30?	No	$0	11.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 4?	No	$11	71.0¢	Won
Will Rocket Lab (RKLB) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$7	38.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on July 3?	Yes	$2	20.3¢	Lost
Will Linke win 35-39 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	No	$18	71.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on September 21?	Yes	$0	15.0¢	Won
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	No	$5	52.2¢	Won
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	Yes	$1	45.8¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on July 4?	No	$9	45.7¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on July 4?	Yes	$6	15.6¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on September 21?	Yes	$1	29.0¢	Lost
Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?	Yes	$3	17.9¢	Lost
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?	Yes	$0	47.0¢	Won
Will Tread launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	$4	13.9¢	Lost
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 11°C on September 21?	No	$3	15.0¢	Lost
Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+) released by September 23, 2026?	No	$2	11.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27?	No	$5	32.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27?	Yes	$8	69.0¢	Won
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on September 22?	No	$10	80.0¢	Won
Will New People (NL) finish second on the party-list vote in Saint Petersburg?	Yes	$3	20.0¢	Won
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 8th Weekend Box Office be at least 6m?	Yes	$8	35.0¢	Won
Will the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin have fewer than 143 seats after the 2026 election?	No	$9	88.8¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on September 21?	No	$23	34.2¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on September 21?	Yes	$10	30.6¢	Lost
Will "Supergirl" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	$5	70.0¢	Won
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?	No	$3	15.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on August 25?	No	$7	75.0¢	Won

Will "A Toxic Love Story" be the top US Netflix movie this week?Lost
No$18 @ 79.0¢
Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.0% and 0.8%?Lost
Yes$1 @ 21.0¢
Will Kai and Speed finish their Minecraft marathon by August 31?Won
Yes$9 @ 61.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on July 12?Lost
No$10 @ 45.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on July 12?Won
Yes$14 @ 54.4¢
Will Alibaba (BABA) beat quarterly earnings?Won
No$16 @ 63.0¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?Lost
Yes$3 @ 12.0¢
Russia Elections: A Just Russia (SR) Clears Duma Threshold?Lost
No$13 @ 27.7¢
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?Won
Yes$9 @ 62.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 14?Lost
No$9 @ 27.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 14?Won
Yes$7 @ 41.0¢
Will "One Night Only" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 6m?Won
Yes$1 @ 17.0¢
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?Won
No$12 @ 83.0¢
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?Lost
Yes$6 @ 13.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 25?Lost
No$5 @ 13.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 25?Won
Yes$29 @ 76.0¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?Lost
No$10 @ 29.5¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?Won
Yes$2 @ 60.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on July 4?Lost
Yes$8 @ 25.4¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1?Won
Yes$17 @ 47.3¢
Will Warsh say "2008" or "Financial Crisis" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?Won
Yes$29 @ 55.0¢
Will GPT-Bidi-1 be released by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$9 @ 41.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on July 4?Won
No$8 @ 68.0¢
Will the next UK parliament by-election be called by September 30?Lost
No$0 @ 11.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 4?Won
No$11 @ 71.0¢
Will Rocket Lab (RKLB) beat quarterly earnings?Won
No$7 @ 38.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on July 3?Lost
Yes$2 @ 20.3¢
Will Linke win 35-39 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Won
No$18 @ 71.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on September 21?Won
Yes$0 @ 15.0¢
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?Won
No$5 @ 52.2¢
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?Lost
Yes$1 @ 45.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on July 4?Won
No$9 @ 45.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on July 4?Lost
Yes$6 @ 15.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on September 21?Lost
Yes$1 @ 29.0¢
Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 17.9¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?Won
Yes$0 @ 47.0¢
Will Tread launch a token by September 30, 2026?Lost
No$4 @ 13.9¢
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 11°C on September 21?Lost
No$3 @ 15.0¢
Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+) released by September 23, 2026?Lost
No$2 @ 11.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27?Lost
No$5 @ 32.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27?Won
Yes$8 @ 69.0¢
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on September 22?Won
No$10 @ 80.0¢
Will New People (NL) finish second on the party-list vote in Saint Petersburg?Won
Yes$3 @ 20.0¢
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 8th Weekend Box Office be at least 6m?Won
Yes$8 @ 35.0¢
Will the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin have fewer than 143 seats after the 2026 election?Won
No$9 @ 88.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on September 21?Won
No$23 @ 34.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on September 21?Lost
Yes$10 @ 30.6¢
Will "Supergirl" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?Won
No$5 @ 70.0¢
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?Lost
No$3 @ 15.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on August 25?Won
No$7 @ 75.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Anduril's valuation hit (LOW) $92.5B by September 30?	Other	Yes	$46	40.0¢
Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?	Tech	No	$39	70.0¢
Will Russia target Kyiv on September 7, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$35	56.0¢
UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$34	83.5¢
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Goiás?	Politics	No	$32	71.9¢
Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$30	23.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the MI-04 House seat?	Politics	No	$28	55.8¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 PA-08 House election by 12% or more?	Politics	Yes	$26	24.0¢
Will the Alaska 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	Politics	Yes	$25	62.5¢
Will Mike Thompson win the CA-04 House seat?	Politics	No	$25	39.0¢
Will “Stateside + Zara Larsson” by PinkPantheress win Best Collaboration at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?	Culture	Yes	$24	56.0¢
Will Delegado André David win the most votes in the 2026 Sergipe Senate election?	Politics	Yes	$23	57.0¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NC-08 House election by 12%-15%?	Politics	Yes	$23	25.0¢
Consensys IPO closing market cap above $3B?	Crypto	No	$22	57.5¢
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$21	59.4¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 IN-06 House election by 20%-25%?	Politics	Yes	$21	27.3¢
Will Axel von der Ohe win the next Hannover mayoral election?	Politics	No	$21	78.3¢
Will Cadu de Lula win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?	Politics	No	$21	68.0¢
Will Clavicular visit the United Kingdom in 2026?	Culture	Yes	$21	56.8¢
Will Teresa Surita win the most votes in the 2026 Roraima Senate election?	Politics	No	$21	44.1¢
Anthony Fauci charged by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$21	36.8¢
Will Ukraine target Moscow on September 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$20	31.5¢
Will Baba Wali win the 2027 Yobe State gubernatorial election?	Politics	No	$19	26.2¢
Felix Protocol FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$19	56.6¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AZ-02 House election by 6%-9%?	Politics	Yes	$19	29.1¢
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by September 30?	Politics	No	$18	87.0¢
Republican House odds dip to 7% by October 31?	Politics	No	$18	29.2¢
Will Nick Stewart attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$18	41.9¢
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$18	77.3¢
Will Dune 3 or Avengers: Doomsday gross more on their opening weekend?	Culture	Dune 3	$18	30.0¢

Will Anduril's valuation hit (LOW) $92.5B by September 30?Other
Yes$46 @ 40.0¢
Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?Tech
No$39 @ 70.0¢
Will Russia target Kyiv on September 7, 2026?Geopolitics
No$35 @ 56.0¢
UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026?Geopolitics
No$34 @ 83.5¢
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Goiás?Politics
No$32 @ 71.9¢
Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31?Geopolitics
Yes$30 @ 23.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the MI-04 House seat?Politics
No$28 @ 55.8¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 PA-08 House election by 12% or more?Politics
Yes$26 @ 24.0¢
Will the Alaska 2026 Senate race be within 5%?Politics
Yes$25 @ 62.5¢
Will Mike Thompson win the CA-04 House seat?Politics
No$25 @ 39.0¢
Will “Stateside + Zara Larsson” by PinkPantheress win Best Collaboration at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?Culture
Yes$24 @ 56.0¢
Will Delegado André David win the most votes in the 2026 Sergipe Senate election?Politics
Yes$23 @ 57.0¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NC-08 House election by 12%-15%?Politics
Yes$23 @ 25.0¢
Consensys IPO closing market cap above $3B?Crypto
No$22 @ 57.5¢
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?Geopolitics
No$21 @ 59.4¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 IN-06 House election by 20%-25%?Politics
Yes$21 @ 27.3¢
Will Axel von der Ohe win the next Hannover mayoral election?Politics
No$21 @ 78.3¢
Will Cadu de Lula win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?Politics
No$21 @ 68.0¢
Will Clavicular visit the United Kingdom in 2026?Culture
Yes$21 @ 56.8¢
Will Teresa Surita win the most votes in the 2026 Roraima Senate election?Politics
No$21 @ 44.1¢
Anthony Fauci charged by December 31?Politics
Yes$21 @ 36.8¢
Will Ukraine target Moscow on September 30, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$20 @ 31.5¢
Will Baba Wali win the 2027 Yobe State gubernatorial election?Politics
No$19 @ 26.2¢
Felix Protocol FDV above $50M one day after launch?Crypto
No$19 @ 56.6¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AZ-02 House election by 6%-9%?Politics
Yes$19 @ 29.1¢
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by September 30?Politics
No$18 @ 87.0¢
Republican House odds dip to 7% by October 31?Politics
No$18 @ 29.2¢
Will Nick Stewart attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$18 @ 41.9¢
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$18 @ 77.3¢
Will Dune 3 or Avengers: Doomsday gross more on their opening weekend?Culture
Dune 3$18 @ 30.0¢