0xfe72…9025

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xfe724b7046696c9c431ae331c3d29816b4799025
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+24.3pp

ROI

+65%

Win rate

66% @ 41.7¢

Brier

0.206

Resolved

138

Avg size

$111

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	47% (7/15)	+98%	15
Tech	36% (4/11)	+136%	11
Other	43% (3/7)	+16%	7
Geopolitics	33% (1/3)	-50%	3
Crypto	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Sports	100% (1/1)	+49%	1

Politics15 bets
Hit rate
47% (7/15)
ROI
+98%
Tech11 bets
Hit rate
36% (4/11)
ROI
+136%
Other7 bets
Hit rate
43% (3/7)
ROI
+16%
Geopolitics3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-50%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+49%

Track record

41% hit · 16/39

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?	Yes	$4	7.5¢	Lost
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	$9	67.0¢	Won
Will GPT-6 be released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$2	1.0¢	Lost
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$1.1k	45.2¢	Won
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	Yes	$3.1k	50.6¢	Won
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$135	13.0¢	Lost
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?	Yes	$100	18.9¢	Lost
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?	Yes	$301	88.0¢	Won
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	Yes	$26	37.0¢	Won
Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?	No	$113	52.9¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$100	67.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	$100	10.0¢	Lost
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	$504	36.0¢	Lost
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?	No	$6	48.4¢	Lost
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$99	3.5¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	$10	0.5¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?	Yes	$100	24.0¢	Won
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by September 25, 2026?	Yes	$19	0.9¢	Lost
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in June?	Yes	$14	30.0¢	Lost
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$3.4k	79.0¢	Won
GPT-5.6 released by July 7, 2026?	Yes	$20	9.2¢	Lost
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 21, 2026?	No	$816	20.0¢	Won
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?	Yes	$425	63.6¢	Won
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17?	Yes	$1.4k	59.6¢	Won
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	No	$64	38.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	No	$50	31.7¢	Lost
Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$206	26.9¢	Lost
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8?	No	$272	8.6¢	Lost
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026?	No	$21	10.6¢	Lost
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?	No	$103	27.4¢	Won
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$103	37.4¢	Lost
Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$538	53.5¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$264	12.6¢	Won
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?	Yes	$827	62.1¢	Won
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30?	Yes	$3	11.2¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?	Yes	$25	13.4¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June?	Yes	$311	9.7¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?	No	$507	59.0¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?	Yes	$100	22.0¢	Won

Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?Lost
Yes$4 @ 7.5¢
Will France win on 2026-06-16?Won
Yes$9 @ 67.0¢
Will GPT-6 be released by July 31, 2026? Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.0¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?Won
Yes$1.1k @ 45.2¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Won
Yes$3.1k @ 50.6¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?Lost
Yes$135 @ 13.0¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?Lost
Yes$100 @ 18.9¢
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?Won
Yes$301 @ 88.0¢
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?Won
Yes$26 @ 37.0¢
Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?Lost
No$113 @ 52.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$100 @ 67.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
Yes$100 @ 10.0¢
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Lost
Yes$504 @ 36.0¢
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?Lost
No$6 @ 48.4¢
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$99 @ 3.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$10 @ 0.5¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?Won
Yes$100 @ 24.0¢
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by September 25, 2026?Lost
Yes$19 @ 0.9¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in June?Lost
Yes$14 @ 30.0¢
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$3.4k @ 79.0¢
GPT-5.6 released by July 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$20 @ 9.2¢
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 21, 2026?Won
No$816 @ 20.0¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?Won
Yes$425 @ 63.6¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17?Won
Yes$1.4k @ 59.6¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?Won
No$64 @ 38.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$50 @ 31.7¢
Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$206 @ 26.9¢
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8?Lost
No$272 @ 8.6¢
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026?Lost
No$21 @ 10.6¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?Won
No$103 @ 27.4¢
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$103 @ 37.4¢
Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$538 @ 53.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Won
Yes$264 @ 12.6¢
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?Won
Yes$827 @ 62.1¢
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30?Lost
Yes$3 @ 11.2¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?Lost
Yes$25 @ 13.4¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June?Lost
Yes$311 @ 9.7¢
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?Lost
No$507 @ 59.0¢
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?Won
Yes$100 @ 22.0¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

Loading recent trades…