0xfe46…cb39

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xfe462bfc4d6a45bfc7bf678f4acc7c2c4adfcb39
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+2.3pp

ROI

+6%

Win rate

30% @ 27.4¢

Brier

0.116

Resolved

1620

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	31% (66/214)	-27%	214
Politics	51% (35/69)	+1%	69
Crypto	76% (22/29)	+330%	29
Tech	83% (10/12)	+18%	12
Geopolitics	67% (6/9)	+3%	9
Culture	33% (1/3)	-69%	3
Sports	50% (1/2)	-54%	2
Business	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Economy	100% (1/1)	+20%	1

Other214 bets
Hit rate
31% (66/214)
ROI
-27%
Politics69 bets
Hit rate
51% (35/69)
ROI
+1%
Crypto29 bets
Hit rate
76% (22/29)
ROI
+330%
Tech12 bets
Hit rate
83% (10/12)
ROI
+18%
Geopolitics9 bets
Hit rate
67% (6/9)
ROI
+3%
Culture3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-69%
Sports2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-54%
Business2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+20%

Track record

42% hit · 142/341

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 24?	Yes	$7	2.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 27?	Yes	$0	7.3¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 23?	No	$3	19.0¢	Lost
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 Week of June 1 2026?	No	$10	94.9¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Up	$2	49.0¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?	No	$15	94.8¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	$2	69.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 5?	No	$10	90.0¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	$6	52.0¢	Lost
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 on March 15?	No	$2	0.1¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on March 26?	Yes	$15	2.0¢	Lost
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?	Yes	$175	67.9¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June?	No	$5	86.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	No	$15	74.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	Yes	$5	40.0¢	Won
Will the US strike 6 countries in 2026?	Yes	$5	8.7¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	No	$15	74.0¢	Won
Will France strike Iran by March 31?	Yes	$5	7.9¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 26?	Yes	$3	35.0¢	Lost
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?	Yes	$5	6.6¢	Lost
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-11?	Yes	$17	46.3¢	Won
Will XRP dip to $1.20 in March?	No	$15	74.1¢	Won
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 on March 22?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	$30	77.8¢	Won
Will Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026?	No	$15	83.8¢	Won
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11?	Yes	$69	63.8¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 25?	Yes	$25	22.5¢	Lost
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?	No	$15	78.0¢	Won
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	$8	19.7¢	Lost
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in April?	No	$15	83.1¢	Won
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	No	$35	71.9¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?	No	$8	81.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 25?	Yes	$13	13.0¢	Lost
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?	Yes	$27	25.3¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on March 15?	No	$2	0.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 25?	Yes	$5	38.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 25?	Yes	$16	13.1¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?	No	$10	72.0¢	Won
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	No	$10	87.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?	No	$15	84.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 20°C on April 24?	Yes	$10	0.2¢	Lost
Will the next UK election be called by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$17	7.5¢	Lost
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?	No	$30	79.7¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	No	$22	62.7¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?	No	$25	84.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on March 23?	Yes	$15	1.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?	Yes	$41	21.3¢	Lost
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	$7	5.1¢	Lost
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?	Yes	$15	11.2¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 on March 20?	Yes	$15	1.0¢	Lost

Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 24?Lost
Yes$7 @ 2.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 27?Lost
Yes$0 @ 7.3¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 23?Lost
No$3 @ 19.0¢
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 Week of June 1 2026?Lost
No$10 @ 94.9¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:15AM-10:20AM ETLost
Up$2 @ 49.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?Lost
No$15 @ 94.8¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:00AM-10:05AM ETLost
Up$2 @ 69.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 5?Lost
No$10 @ 90.0¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ETLost
Up$6 @ 52.0¢
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 on March 15?Lost
No$2 @ 0.1¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on March 26?Lost
Yes$15 @ 2.0¢
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?Won
Yes$175 @ 67.9¢
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June?Won
No$5 @ 86.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?Lost
No$15 @ 74.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?Won
Yes$5 @ 40.0¢
Will the US strike 6 countries in 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 8.7¢
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?Won
No$15 @ 74.0¢
Will France strike Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$5 @ 7.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 26?Lost
Yes$3 @ 35.0¢
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?Lost
Yes$5 @ 6.6¢
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-11?Won
Yes$17 @ 46.3¢
Will XRP dip to $1.20 in March?Won
No$15 @ 74.1¢
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 on March 22?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Won
No$30 @ 77.8¢
Will Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026?Won
No$15 @ 83.8¢
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11?Lost
Yes$69 @ 63.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 25?Lost
Yes$25 @ 22.5¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?Won
No$15 @ 78.0¢
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?Lost
Yes$8 @ 19.7¢
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in April?Won
No$15 @ 83.1¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Won
No$35 @ 71.9¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?Won
No$8 @ 81.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 25?Lost
Yes$13 @ 13.0¢
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?Lost
Yes$27 @ 25.3¢
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on March 15?Lost
No$2 @ 0.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 25?Won
Yes$5 @ 38.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 25?Lost
Yes$16 @ 13.1¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?Won
No$10 @ 72.0¢
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?Won
No$10 @ 87.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?Won
No$15 @ 84.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 20°C on April 24?Lost
Yes$10 @ 0.2¢
Will the next UK election be called by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$17 @ 7.5¢
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?Won
No$30 @ 79.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$22 @ 62.7¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Won
No$25 @ 84.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on March 23?Lost
Yes$15 @ 1.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?Lost
Yes$41 @ 21.3¢
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?Lost
No$7 @ 5.1¢
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$15 @ 11.2¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 on March 20?Lost
Yes$15 @ 1.0¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?	—	Yes	$210	74.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C on April 24?	—	Yes	$71	0.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 25?	—	Yes	$16	13.4¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in April?	—	No	$15	62.8¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	—	No	$15	67.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?	Politics	No	$15	94.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 25?	—	Yes	$13	13.1¢
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$10	81.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$10	64.4¢
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$10	62.0¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	No	$10	78.0¢
Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	No	$10	64.3¢
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 September 28-October 4?	Crypto	No	$10	63.0¢
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$10	75.0¢
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$10	75.0¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 25?	—	Yes	$10	25.4¢
Will Gen.G win Worlds 2026?	Sports	No	$10	66.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 5?	Crypto	No	$10	90.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 20°C on April 24?	—	Yes	$10	0.2¢
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $745 Week of June 1 2026?	Business	No	$10	89.0¢
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 Week of June 1 2026?	Business	No	$10	94.9¢
Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Politics	No	$9	65.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on May 23?	—	Yes	$8	3.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 24?	—	Yes	$7	2.0¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C or below on April 25?	—	Yes	$7	0.7¢
Will Ethereum dip to $2,050 on May 22?	—	Yes	$7	21.0¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	—	Up	$6	52.0¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C or below on April 24?	—	Yes	$6	0.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 25?	—	Yes	$5	18.9¢
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30?	Tech	No	$5	65.0¢

Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?—
Yes$210 @ 74.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C on April 24?—
Yes$71 @ 0.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 25?—
Yes$16 @ 13.4¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in April?—
No$15 @ 62.8¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?—
No$15 @ 67.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?Politics
No$15 @ 94.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 25?—
Yes$13 @ 13.1¢
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?Geopolitics
No$10 @ 81.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$10 @ 64.4¢
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?Geopolitics
No$10 @ 62.0¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
No$10 @ 78.0¢
Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
No$10 @ 64.3¢
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 September 28-October 4?Crypto
No$10 @ 63.0¢
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$10 @ 75.0¢
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$10 @ 75.0¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 25?—
Yes$10 @ 25.4¢
Will Gen.G win Worlds 2026?Sports
No$10 @ 66.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 5?Crypto
No$10 @ 90.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 20°C on April 24?—
Yes$10 @ 0.2¢
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $745 Week of June 1 2026?Business
No$10 @ 89.0¢
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 Week of June 1 2026?Business
No$10 @ 94.9¢
Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Politics
No$9 @ 65.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on May 23?—
Yes$8 @ 3.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 24?—
Yes$7 @ 2.0¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C or below on April 25?—
Yes$7 @ 0.7¢
Will Ethereum dip to $2,050 on May 22?—
Yes$7 @ 21.0¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET—
Up$6 @ 52.0¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C or below on April 24?—
Yes$6 @ 0.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 25?—
Yes$5 @ 18.9¢
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30?Tech
No$5 @ 65.0¢