0xfde1…3690

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xfde17cffbbbeec78f9f89d0df4d08fe7ab1a3690
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+18.1pp

ROI

+38%

Win rate

60% @ 42.3¢

Brier

0.198

Resolved

111

Avg size

$228

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	62% (8/13)	+112%	13
Other	56% (5/9)	+8%	9
Geopolitics	75% (6/8)	+18%	8
Sports	50% (1/2)	+34%	2

Politics13 bets
Hit rate
62% (8/13)
ROI
+112%
Other9 bets
Hit rate
56% (5/9)
ROI
+8%
Geopolitics8 bets
Hit rate
75% (6/8)
ROI
+18%
Sports2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+34%

Track record

63% hit · 20/32

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?	No	$756	86.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk attend the White House state dinner for Xi Jinping?	Yes	$21	51.0¢	Won
Will Warsh say "Task Force" 5+ times during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?	Yes	$104	35.0¢	Lost
Will Netanyahu wear a Yarmulke at next meeting with Trump?	No	$204	88.8¢	Won
Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 6–10 seconds during their summit?	Yes	$18	12.0¢	Lost
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 24, 2026?	No	$40	29.0¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?	Yes	$402	13.9¢	Lost
Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during their summit?	Yes	$1	1.0¢	Won
Carbajal vs. Cosano: Match O/U 21.5	Over	$3.6k	79.4¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?	No	$109	75.0¢	Won
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	No	$29	67.0¢	Won
Iran full airspace closure by July 21?	No	$366	85.6¢	Won
Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the July Meeting?	Yes	$792	88.0¢	Won
Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during their summit?	Yes	$3	29.0¢	Lost
Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the July Meeting?	No	$792	88.0¢	Won
Finkelstein vs. Gabelic: Match O/U 23.5	Over	$259	25.0¢	Lost
Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during their summit?	No	$383	76.5¢	Won
Carbajal vs. Cosano: Match O/U 23.5	Over	$5.2k	76.1¢	Won
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO3) - The International Playoffs	Team Liquid	$1.5k	37.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on September 3, 2026?	No	$175	22.9¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?	No	$114	8.1¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?	Yes	$3.8k	76.0¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?	No	$720	72.0¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?	Yes	$1.2k	14.6¢	Lost
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?	No	$106	41.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$680	45.3¢	Lost
M15 Monastir: Nicolas Jadoun vs Stevan Popovic	Nicolas Jadoun	$100	50.1¢	Won
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)	Conor McGregor	$255	35.0¢	Lost
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?	No	$17	67.1¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$1.8k	17.8¢	Won
Set Handicap: Routliffe/Sutjiadi (-1.5) vs Garland/Hsieh (+1.5)	Garland/Hsieh	$1.4k	63.2¢	Won
Will Mark Zuckerberg attend the White House state dinner for Xi Jinping?	Yes	$315	81.7¢	Won

Israel closes its airspace by July 24?Won
No$756 @ 86.0¢
Will Elon Musk attend the White House state dinner for Xi Jinping?Won
Yes$21 @ 51.0¢
Will Warsh say "Task Force" 5+ times during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?Lost
Yes$104 @ 35.0¢
Will Netanyahu wear a Yarmulke at next meeting with Trump?Won
No$204 @ 88.8¢
Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 6–10 seconds during their summit?Lost
Yes$18 @ 12.0¢
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 24, 2026?Won
No$40 @ 29.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Lost
Yes$402 @ 13.9¢
Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during their summit?Won
Yes$1 @ 1.0¢
Carbajal vs. Cosano: Match O/U 21.5Won
Over$3.6k @ 79.4¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?Won
No$109 @ 75.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Won
No$29 @ 67.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 21?Won
No$366 @ 85.6¢
Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the July Meeting?Won
Yes$792 @ 88.0¢
Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during their summit?Lost
Yes$3 @ 29.0¢
Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the July Meeting?Won
No$792 @ 88.0¢
Finkelstein vs. Gabelic: Match O/U 23.5Lost
Over$259 @ 25.0¢
Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during their summit?Won
No$383 @ 76.5¢
Carbajal vs. Cosano: Match O/U 23.5Won
Over$5.2k @ 76.1¢
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO3) - The International PlayoffsLost
Team Liquid$1.5k @ 37.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on September 3, 2026?Lost
No$175 @ 22.9¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?Lost
No$114 @ 8.1¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?Won
Yes$3.8k @ 76.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?Won
No$720 @ 72.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?Lost
Yes$1.2k @ 14.6¢
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?Won
No$106 @ 41.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$680 @ 45.3¢
M15 Monastir: Nicolas Jadoun vs Stevan PopovicWon
Nicolas Jadoun$100 @ 50.1¢
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)Lost
Conor McGregor$255 @ 35.0¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?Lost
No$17 @ 67.1¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?Won
Yes$1.8k @ 17.8¢
Set Handicap: Routliffe/Sutjiadi (-1.5) vs Garland/Hsieh (+1.5)Won
Garland/Hsieh$1.4k @ 63.2¢
Will Mark Zuckerberg attend the White House state dinner for Xi Jinping?Won
Yes$315 @ 81.7¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will John Ternus attend the White House state dinner for Xi Jinping?	Politics	No	$1.1k	99.1¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by September 30, 2026?	Tech	No	$989	96.4¢
Will Alex Karp attend the White House state dinner for Xi Jinping?	Politics	No	$606	99.1¢
No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the September 2026 meeting?	Geopolitics	No	$586	97.7¢
Will Dario Amodei attend the White House state dinner for Xi Jinping?	Politics	No	$341	95.0¢
Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the September 2026 meeting?	Geopolitics	Yes	$84	92.4¢

Will John Ternus attend the White House state dinner for Xi Jinping?Politics
No$1.1k @ 99.1¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by September 30, 2026?Tech
No$989 @ 96.4¢
Will Alex Karp attend the White House state dinner for Xi Jinping?Politics
No$606 @ 99.1¢
No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the September 2026 meeting?Geopolitics
No$586 @ 97.7¢
Will Dario Amodei attend the White House state dinner for Xi Jinping?Politics
No$341 @ 95.0¢
Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the September 2026 meeting?Geopolitics
Yes$84 @ 92.4¢