0xfd8a…f8e2

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xfd8a21560c9bcfbf573179d97b7036f88fddf8e2
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

ProfitableSniper

Edge

+7.2pp

ROI

+16%

Win rate

64% @ 56.6¢

Brier

0.188

Resolved

828

Avg size

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	57% (93/163)	+11%	163
Sports	55% (30/55)	+24%	55
Politics	50% (7/14)	-19%	14
Tech	75% (6/8)	+55%	8
Crypto	33% (1/3)	-73%	3
Geopolitics	100% (1/1)	+18%	1

Other163 bets
Hit rate
57% (93/163)
ROI
+11%
Sports55 bets
Hit rate
55% (30/55)
ROI
+24%
Politics14 bets
Hit rate
50% (7/14)
ROI
-19%
Tech8 bets
Hit rate
75% (6/8)
ROI
+55%
Crypto3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-73%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+18%

Track record

57% hit · 138/244

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	No	$2	50.7¢	Lost
Will SC Braga win on 2026-05-11?	Yes	$2	48.0¢	Lost
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 4.5	Under	$10	72.9¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	No	$90	82.6¢	Won
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	No	$30	40.7¢	Lost
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	$34	61.3¢	Won
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05?	No	$28	26.4¢	Lost
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05?	Yes	$38	63.3¢	Won
Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs 1win - Game 2 Winner	Nemiga Gaming	$2	26.0¢	Lost
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5	Over	$4	49.2¢	Lost
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5	Under	$9	70.1¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$3	71.5¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$30	21.9¢	Lost
Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins	Baltimore Orioles	$1	64.0¢	Won
Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins	Miami Marlins	$1	49.0¢	Lost
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-12?	No	$2	62.0¢	Won
76ers vs. Knicks	Knicks	$16	78.0¢	Won
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros	Seattle Mariners	$2	64.0¢	Won
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-05-03?	No	$8	52.8¢	Lost
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-05-03?	Yes	$6	81.0¢	Won
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-08?	Yes	$3	56.4¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?	No	$2	75.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?	Yes	$2	18.0¢	Won
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner	BetBoom Team	$4	43.0¢	Lost
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner	Team Spirit	$19	54.4¢	Won
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B	Tundra Esports	$11	56.3¢	Lost
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	No	$19	39.6¢	Lost
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	$25	74.5¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	No	$4	90.0¢	Won
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026?	Yes	$5	54.3¢	Won
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens	Canadiens	$2	42.0¢	Lost
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner	Vici Gaming	$10	43.3¢	Lost
Will Montreal Canadiens advance to Round 2 of the 2026 NHL Playoffs?	Yes	$1	70.0¢	Won
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	No	$39	27.8¢	Lost
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Yes	$32	72.6¢	Won
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner	PlayTime	$7	47.1¢	Lost
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B	Tundra Esports	$9	42.0¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$52	80.6¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	$3	18.0¢	Lost
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	No	$55	44.9¢	Won
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	$5	54.6¢	Lost
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs 1win (BO3) - 1win Essence Group A	1win	$9	47.0¢	Lost
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs 1win (BO3) - 1win Essence Group A	Yellow Submarine	$9	52.0¢	Won
Fulham FC leading at halftime?	No	$1	71.0¢	Won
Spurs vs. Thunder: Odd/Even Score	Odd	$11	51.0¢	Won
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner	Aurora	$10	48.0¢	Lost
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner	Team Yandex	$11	49.0¢	Won
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	No	$10	27.9¢	Lost
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Yes	$61	63.4¢	Won
James Comey arrested by May 15?	No	$1	8.0¢	Lost

Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?Lost
No$2 @ 50.7¢
Will SC Braga win on 2026-05-11?Lost
Yes$2 @ 48.0¢
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 4.5Won
Under$10 @ 72.9¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?Won
No$90 @ 82.6¢
Will France win on 2026-06-16?Lost
No$30 @ 40.7¢
Will France win on 2026-06-16?Won
Yes$34 @ 61.3¢
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05?Lost
No$28 @ 26.4¢
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05?Won
Yes$38 @ 63.3¢
Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs 1win - Game 2 WinnerLost
Nemiga Gaming$2 @ 26.0¢
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5Lost
Over$4 @ 49.2¢
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5Won
Under$9 @ 70.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$3 @ 71.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$30 @ 21.9¢
Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami MarlinsWon
Baltimore Orioles$1 @ 64.0¢
Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami MarlinsLost
Miami Marlins$1 @ 49.0¢
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-12?Won
No$2 @ 62.0¢
76ers vs. KnicksWon
Knicks$16 @ 78.0¢
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston AstrosWon
Seattle Mariners$2 @ 64.0¢
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-05-03?Lost
No$8 @ 52.8¢
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-05-03?Won
Yes$6 @ 81.0¢
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-08?Won
Yes$3 @ 56.4¢
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?Lost
No$2 @ 75.0¢
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?Won
Yes$2 @ 18.0¢
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 WinnerLost
BetBoom Team$4 @ 43.0¢
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 WinnerWon
Team Spirit$19 @ 54.4¢
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - DreamLeague Group BLost
Tundra Esports$11 @ 56.3¢
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?Lost
No$19 @ 39.6¢
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?Won
Yes$25 @ 74.5¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?Won
No$4 @ 90.0¢
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026?Won
Yes$5 @ 54.3¢
Hurricanes vs. CanadiensLost
Canadiens$2 @ 42.0¢
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 WinnerLost
Vici Gaming$10 @ 43.3¢
Will Montreal Canadiens advance to Round 2 of the 2026 NHL Playoffs?Won
Yes$1 @ 70.0¢
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?Lost
No$39 @ 27.8¢
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?Won
Yes$32 @ 72.6¢
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 WinnerLost
PlayTime$7 @ 47.1¢
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Group BLost
Tundra Esports$9 @ 42.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$52 @ 80.6¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Lost
Yes$3 @ 18.0¢
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?Won
No$55 @ 44.9¢
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?Lost
Yes$5 @ 54.6¢
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs 1win (BO3) - 1win Essence Group ALost
1win$9 @ 47.0¢
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs 1win (BO3) - 1win Essence Group AWon
Yellow Submarine$9 @ 52.0¢
Fulham FC leading at halftime?Won
No$1 @ 71.0¢
Spurs vs. Thunder: Odd/Even ScoreWon
Odd$11 @ 51.0¢
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 WinnerLost
Aurora$10 @ 48.0¢
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 WinnerWon
Team Yandex$11 @ 49.0¢
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?Lost
No$10 @ 27.9¢
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?Won
Yes$61 @ 63.4¢
James Comey arrested by May 15?Lost
No$1 @ 8.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	Other	No	$32	89.7¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$26	66.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Geopolitics	No	$21	81.9¢
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$18	75.6¢
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	Tech	Yes	$12	54.3¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	Politics	Yes	$11	58.5¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$10	62.7¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?	Politics	No	$10	65.1¢
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	No	$9	31.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$8	79.2¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$7	70.3¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?	Politics	Yes	$6	92.0¢
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$6	74.3¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?	Politics	Yes	$5	31.6¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Politics	No	$5	59.7¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Tech	Yes	$5	71.5¢
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	Politics	No	$4	91.1¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$4	67.1¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Politics	Yes	$4	62.5¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$4	94.2¢
Will Ecuador reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	No	$4	81.4¢
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$3	37.0¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$3	15.8¢
Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	No	$3	74.0¢
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	No	$3	65.0¢
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	No	$3	32.0¢
Will Mexico reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	No	$3	89.0¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?	Politics	No	$3	94.0¢
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026?	Tech	No	$2	48.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?	Other	No	$2	93.8¢

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?Other
No$32 @ 89.7¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$26 @ 66.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Geopolitics
No$21 @ 81.9¢
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$18 @ 75.6¢
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?Tech
Yes$12 @ 54.3¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Politics
Yes$11 @ 58.5¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?Politics
No$10 @ 62.7¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?Politics
No$10 @ 65.1¢
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
No$9 @ 31.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?Politics
Yes$8 @ 79.2¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
Yes$7 @ 70.3¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Politics
Yes$6 @ 92.0¢
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$6 @ 74.3¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?Politics
Yes$5 @ 31.6¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Politics
No$5 @ 59.7¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Tech
Yes$5 @ 71.5¢
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?Politics
No$4 @ 91.1¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Politics
No$4 @ 67.1¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Politics
Yes$4 @ 62.5¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Politics
Yes$4 @ 94.2¢
Will Ecuador reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
No$4 @ 81.4¢
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Politics
No$3 @ 37.0¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$3 @ 15.8¢
Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
No$3 @ 74.0¢
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
No$3 @ 65.0¢
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
No$3 @ 32.0¢
Will Mexico reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
No$3 @ 89.0¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Politics
No$3 @ 94.0¢
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026?Tech
No$2 @ 48.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?Other
No$2 @ 93.8¢