0xfd8a…f8e2

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xfd8a21560c9bcfbf573179d97b7036f88fddf8e2
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

ProfitableSniper

Edge

+9.9pp

ROI

+23%

Win rate

64% @ 54.5¢

Brier

0.203

Resolved

447

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	59% (139/237)	-1%	237
Sports	66% (95/145)	+8%	145
Politics	56% (23/41)	-16%	41
Tech	75% (15/20)	+41%	20
Geopolitics	63% (5/8)	+7%	8
Economy	67% (2/3)	-11%	3
Crypto	33% (1/3)	-65%	3

Other237 bets
Hit rate
59% (139/237)
ROI
-1%
Sports145 bets
Hit rate
66% (95/145)
ROI
+8%
Politics41 bets
Hit rate
56% (23/41)
ROI
-16%
Tech20 bets
Hit rate
75% (15/20)
ROI
+41%
Geopolitics8 bets
Hit rate
63% (5/8)
ROI
+7%
Economy3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
-11%
Crypto3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-65%

Track record

61% hit · 280/457

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$2	82.7¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?	Yes	$1	63.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$1	56.0¢	Lost
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Chicago Sky	Los Angeles Sparks	$3	45.0¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	No	$2	85.0¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	Yes	$2	43.3¢	Lost
Will England finish 3rd place in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$2	64.0¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	$2	63.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?	Yes	$1	61.0¢	Won
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$2	58.2¢	Won
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?	Yes	$2	63.0¢	Lost
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$2	39.2¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?	Yes	$1	58.0¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 18?	No	$3	96.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$2	36.0¢	Lost
Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners	Minnesota Twins	$6	54.0¢	Won
Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners	Seattle Mariners	$3	69.5¢	Lost
Will Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?	No	$2	94.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?	Yes	$3	92.0¢	Won
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?	No	$1	59.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?	Yes	$3	13.1¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	$2	91.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	Yes	$1	16.0¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?	Yes	$2	60.0¢	Won
Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to Advance	Colombia	$1	59.0¢	Lost
Will the semifinals be FRA vs ESP and NOR vs ARG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$2	74.0¢	Won
United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance	Belgium	$2	52.0¢	Won
United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance	United States	$1	31.0¢	Lost
Will the semifinals be FRA vs ESP and ENG vs ARG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$2	51.0¢	Lost
Will the semifinals be FRA vs ESP and ENG vs ARG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$5	77.0¢	Won
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?	No	$38	39.6¢	Lost
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?	Yes	$15	46.3¢	Won
Will Spain win on 2026-07-06?	No	$49	53.6¢	Lost
Will Spain win on 2026-07-06?	Yes	$1	35.0¢	Won
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07?	No	$33	71.7¢	Won
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$1	74.0¢	Won
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner	Vici Gaming	$3	70.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	No	$2	66.9¢	Won
Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees	New York Yankees	$4	31.4¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?	No	$2	92.3¢	Won
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	No	$3	98.8¢	Won
GPT-5.6 released by July 7, 2026?	No	$2	85.0¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$5	71.5¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in July?	No	$2	95.3¢	Won
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner	LGD Gaming	$11	66.2¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	No	$5	61.0¢	Won
GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?	No	$2	92.0¢	Won
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$1	70.0¢	Lost
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28?	No	$15	80.8¢	Won
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28?	Yes	$2	19.0¢	Lost

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$2 @ 82.7¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?Won
Yes$1 @ 63.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 56.0¢
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Chicago SkyLost
Los Angeles Sparks$3 @ 45.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Won
No$2 @ 85.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Lost
Yes$2 @ 43.3¢
Will England finish 3rd place in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
No$2 @ 64.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Won
Yes$2 @ 63.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?Won
Yes$1 @ 61.0¢
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$2 @ 58.2¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?Lost
Yes$2 @ 63.0¢
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$2 @ 39.2¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 58.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 18?Won
No$3 @ 96.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 36.0¢
Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle MarinersWon
Minnesota Twins$6 @ 54.0¢
Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle MarinersLost
Seattle Mariners$3 @ 69.5¢
Will Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?Won
No$2 @ 94.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?Won
Yes$3 @ 92.0¢
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?Won
No$1 @ 59.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 13.1¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Won
No$2 @ 91.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 16.0¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?Won
Yes$2 @ 60.0¢
Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to AdvanceLost
Colombia$1 @ 59.0¢
Will the semifinals be FRA vs ESP and NOR vs ARG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$2 @ 74.0¢
United States vs. Belgium: Team to AdvanceWon
Belgium$2 @ 52.0¢
United States vs. Belgium: Team to AdvanceLost
United States$1 @ 31.0¢
Will the semifinals be FRA vs ESP and ENG vs ARG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
No$2 @ 51.0¢
Will the semifinals be FRA vs ESP and ENG vs ARG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$5 @ 77.0¢
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?Lost
No$38 @ 39.6¢
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?Won
Yes$15 @ 46.3¢
Will Spain win on 2026-07-06?Lost
No$49 @ 53.6¢
Will Spain win on 2026-07-06?Won
Yes$1 @ 35.0¢
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07?Won
No$33 @ 71.7¢
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?Won
Yes$1 @ 74.0¢
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 WinnerWon
Vici Gaming$3 @ 70.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Won
No$2 @ 66.9¢
Minnesota Twins vs. New York YankeesLost
New York Yankees$4 @ 31.4¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?Won
No$2 @ 92.3¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Won
No$3 @ 98.8¢
GPT-5.6 released by July 7, 2026?Won
No$2 @ 85.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Won
Yes$5 @ 71.5¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in July?Won
No$2 @ 95.3¢
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 WinnerLost
LGD Gaming$11 @ 66.2¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?Won
No$5 @ 61.0¢
GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?Won
No$2 @ 92.0¢
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
No$1 @ 70.0¢
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28?Won
No$15 @ 80.8¢
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28?Lost
Yes$2 @ 19.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$13	74.1¢
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	Business	Yes	$12	33.4¢
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	Tech	Yes	$12	52.9¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$9	75.6¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$8	89.9¢
OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Business	No	$7	51.8¢
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$7	94.7¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	—	No	$7	71.2¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Business	Yes	$6	73.5¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$5	6.9¢
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Politics	No	$5	59.5¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$5	14.1¢
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?	Politics	No	$4	70.3¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$4	60.1¢
Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	—	No	$3	87.0¢
Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Sports	No	$3	85.9¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	—	No	$3	77.7¢
Will Moonshot have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?	—	No	$3	69.0¢
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?	—	No	$3	55.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	No	$3	46.9¢
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$2	87.5¢
Will Guadalajara win the 2026 Liga MX Apertura?	—	No	$2	81.0¢
Will the Philadelphia Phillies clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason?	Sports	Yes	$2	78.0¢
Will the Chicago Cubs clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason?	Sports	Yes	$2	73.0¢
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	Tech	Yes	$2	30.1¢
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Politics	No	$2	94.5¢
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80?	—	No	$2	94.7¢
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Tech	Yes	$2	22.8¢
Will Inter Miami CF win the 2026 MLS Cup?	Sports	No	$2	75.0¢
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$2	32.0¢

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
Yes$13 @ 74.1¢
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?Business
Yes$12 @ 33.4¢
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?Tech
Yes$12 @ 52.9¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$9 @ 75.6¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$8 @ 89.9¢
OpenAI IPO before 2027?Business
No$7 @ 51.8¢
Xi Jinping out before 2027?Geopolitics
No$7 @ 94.7¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?—
No$7 @ 71.2¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Business
Yes$6 @ 73.5¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?Tech
Yes$5 @ 6.9¢
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?Politics
No$5 @ 59.5¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$5 @ 14.1¢
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?Politics
No$4 @ 70.3¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?Geopolitics
No$4 @ 60.1¢
Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?—
No$3 @ 87.0¢
Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?Sports
No$3 @ 85.9¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?—
No$3 @ 77.7¢
Will Moonshot have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?—
No$3 @ 69.0¢
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?—
No$3 @ 55.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
No$3 @ 46.9¢
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?Politics
No$2 @ 87.5¢
Will Guadalajara win the 2026 Liga MX Apertura?—
No$2 @ 81.0¢
Will the Philadelphia Phillies clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason?Sports
Yes$2 @ 78.0¢
Will the Chicago Cubs clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason?Sports
Yes$2 @ 73.0¢
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?Tech
Yes$2 @ 30.1¢
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Politics
No$2 @ 94.5¢
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80?—
No$2 @ 94.7¢
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?Tech
Yes$2 @ 22.8¢
Will Inter Miami CF win the 2026 MLS Cup?Sports
No$2 @ 75.0¢
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?Politics
Yes$2 @ 32.0¢