0xfd8a…f8e2

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xfd8a21560c9bcfbf573179d97b7036f88fddf8e2
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

ProfitableSniper

Edge

+9.5pp

ROI

+22%

Win rate

64% @ 55.0¢

Brier

0.200

Resolved

461

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	58% (95/165)	+8%	165
Sports	56% (33/59)	+24%	59
Politics	50% (7/14)	-22%	14
Tech	75% (6/8)	+63%	8
Crypto	33% (1/3)	-65%	3
Geopolitics	100% (1/1)	+17%	1

Other165 bets
Hit rate
58% (95/165)
ROI
+8%
Sports59 bets
Hit rate
56% (33/59)
ROI
+24%
Politics14 bets
Hit rate
50% (7/14)
ROI
-22%
Tech8 bets
Hit rate
75% (6/8)
ROI
+63%
Crypto3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-65%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+17%

Track record

57% hit · 143/250

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 4.5	Under	$10	72.9¢	Won
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	No	$30	40.7¢	Lost
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	$34	61.3¢	Won
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5	Over	$4	49.2¢	Lost
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5	Under	$9	70.1¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$3	71.5¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$25	20.1¢	Lost
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	No	$19	39.6¢	Lost
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	$25	74.5¢	Won
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026?	Yes	$5	54.3¢	Won
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens	Canadiens	$2	42.0¢	Lost
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	No	$39	27.8¢	Lost
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Yes	$32	72.6¢	Won
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	No	$55	44.9¢	Won
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	$5	54.6¢	Lost
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner	Aurora	$10	48.0¢	Lost
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner	Team Yandex	$11	49.0¢	Won
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	No	$10	27.9¢	Lost
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Yes	$61	63.4¢	Won
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	$34	83.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	Yes	$1	8.0¢	Lost
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026?	No	$2	89.0¢	Won
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	No	$27	79.8¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$2	40.0¢	Lost
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	No	$135	65.6¢	Won
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	$5	29.6¢	Lost
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	$26	38.1¢	Lost
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner	Team Yandex	$12	55.7¢	Won
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	No	$3	15.0¢	Lost
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Yes	$45	78.6¢	Won
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	No	$29	84.2¢	Won
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants	San Francisco Giants	$26	51.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$12	85.6¢	Won
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$8	31.4¢	Won
NHL: Stanley Cup Winner USA or Canada?	USA	$2	78.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	$3	57.8¢	Lost
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	No	$5	16.7¢	Won
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Yes	$25	88.3¢	Lost
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs	Team Yandex	$14	58.6¢	Won
Will Bayern Munich win DFB-Pokal?	Yes	$1	84.0¢	Won
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	No	$28	65.6¢	Lost
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Yes	$27	38.6¢	Won
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs	Yakult Brothers	$20	58.4¢	Won
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs	Team Yandex	$17	67.2¢	Won
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	No	$34	51.6¢	Won
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Yes	$36	47.2¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	Yes	$5	19.9¢	Lost
New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5	Over	$6	55.7¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$8	68.2¢	Lost
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner	LGD Gaming	$6	35.3¢	Won

France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 4.5Won
Under$10 @ 72.9¢
Will France win on 2026-06-16?Lost
No$30 @ 40.7¢
Will France win on 2026-06-16?Won
Yes$34 @ 61.3¢
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5Lost
Over$4 @ 49.2¢
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5Won
Under$9 @ 70.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$3 @ 71.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$25 @ 20.1¢
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?Lost
No$19 @ 39.6¢
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?Won
Yes$25 @ 74.5¢
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026?Won
Yes$5 @ 54.3¢
Hurricanes vs. CanadiensLost
Canadiens$2 @ 42.0¢
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?Lost
No$39 @ 27.8¢
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?Won
Yes$32 @ 72.6¢
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?Won
No$55 @ 44.9¢
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?Lost
Yes$5 @ 54.6¢
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 WinnerLost
Aurora$10 @ 48.0¢
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 WinnerWon
Team Yandex$11 @ 49.0¢
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?Lost
No$10 @ 27.9¢
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?Won
Yes$61 @ 63.4¢
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?Won
Yes$34 @ 83.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 8.0¢
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026?Won
No$2 @ 89.0¢
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?Won
No$27 @ 79.8¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 40.0¢
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?Won
No$135 @ 65.6¢
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?Lost
Yes$5 @ 29.6¢
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?Lost
Yes$26 @ 38.1¢
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 WinnerWon
Team Yandex$12 @ 55.7¢
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?Lost
No$3 @ 15.0¢
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?Won
Yes$45 @ 78.6¢
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?Won
No$29 @ 84.2¢
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco GiantsWon
San Francisco Giants$26 @ 51.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
No$12 @ 85.6¢
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$8 @ 31.4¢
NHL: Stanley Cup Winner USA or Canada?Won
USA$2 @ 78.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$3 @ 57.8¢
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?Won
No$5 @ 16.7¢
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?Lost
Yes$25 @ 88.3¢
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam PlayoffsWon
Team Yandex$14 @ 58.6¢
Will Bayern Munich win DFB-Pokal?Won
Yes$1 @ 84.0¢
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?Lost
No$28 @ 65.6¢
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?Won
Yes$27 @ 38.6¢
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier PlayoffsWon
Yakult Brothers$20 @ 58.4¢
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam PlayoffsWon
Team Yandex$17 @ 67.2¢
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?Won
No$34 @ 51.6¢
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?Lost
Yes$36 @ 47.2¢
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 19.9¢
New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5Won
Over$6 @ 55.7¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$8 @ 68.2¢
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 WinnerWon
LGD Gaming$6 @ 35.3¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Politics	Yes	$28	48.4¢
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	Tech	Yes	$14	52.9¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$13	74.1¢
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	Business	Yes	$12	33.4¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$8	89.9¢
OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Business	No	$7	51.8¢
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$7	94.7¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	—	No	$7	71.2¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$6	73.8¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Business	Yes	$6	73.5¢
Another Frontier Math Problem Solved by December 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$6	93.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$5	6.9¢
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Politics	No	$5	59.5¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$5	14.1¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?	—	Yes	$5	79.0¢
Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026?	—	No	$4	39.0¢
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?	Politics	No	$4	70.3¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$4	39.3¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$4	60.1¢
Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Sports	No	$3	85.9¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	—	No	$3	77.7¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?	—	No	$3	83.7¢
Will Moonshot have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?	—	No	$3	69.0¢
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?	—	No	$3	55.0¢
Will Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?	—	No	$2	94.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$2	87.5¢
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?	—	No	$2	60.4¢
Will the Philadelphia Phillies clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason?	Sports	Yes	$2	78.0¢
Will the Chicago Cubs clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason?	Sports	Yes	$2	73.0¢
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	Tech	Yes	$2	30.1¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Politics
Yes$28 @ 48.4¢
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?Tech
Yes$14 @ 52.9¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
Yes$13 @ 74.1¢
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?Business
Yes$12 @ 33.4¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$8 @ 89.9¢
OpenAI IPO before 2027?Business
No$7 @ 51.8¢
Xi Jinping out before 2027?Geopolitics
No$7 @ 94.7¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?—
No$7 @ 71.2¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$6 @ 73.8¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Business
Yes$6 @ 73.5¢
Another Frontier Math Problem Solved by December 31, 2026?—
Yes$6 @ 93.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?Tech
Yes$5 @ 6.9¢
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?Politics
No$5 @ 59.5¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$5 @ 14.1¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?—
Yes$5 @ 79.0¢
Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026?—
No$4 @ 39.0¢
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?Politics
No$4 @ 70.3¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?—
Yes$4 @ 39.3¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?Geopolitics
No$4 @ 60.1¢
Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?Sports
No$3 @ 85.9¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?—
No$3 @ 77.7¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?—
No$3 @ 83.7¢
Will Moonshot have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?—
No$3 @ 69.0¢
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?—
No$3 @ 55.0¢
Will Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?—
No$2 @ 94.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?Politics
No$2 @ 87.5¢
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?—
No$2 @ 60.4¢
Will the Philadelphia Phillies clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason?Sports
Yes$2 @ 78.0¢
Will the Chicago Cubs clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason?Sports
Yes$2 @ 73.0¢
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?Tech
Yes$2 @ 30.1¢