0xfd6d…962d

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xfd6deb2c6c5ee9c07c7c6826bbc24fed34ce962d
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+14.6pp

ROI

+23%

Win rate

54% @ 39.2¢

Brier

0.209

Resolved

Avg size

$12

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	44% (11/25)	+100%	25
Politics	50% (10/20)	-41%	20
Geopolitics	50% (4/8)	-42%	8
Sports	0% (0/5)	-100%	5
Economy	100% (1/1)	+223%	1
Crypto	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other25 bets
Hit rate
44% (11/25)
ROI
+100%
Politics20 bets
Hit rate
50% (10/20)
ROI
-41%
Geopolitics8 bets
Hit rate
50% (4/8)
ROI
-42%
Sports5 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/5)
ROI
-100%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+223%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

43% hit · 26/60

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	$2	31.0¢	Won
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?	No	$7	56.0¢	Won
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	No	$21	62.9¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$36	66.9¢	Won
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?	Yes	$20	10.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	Yes	$42	51.8¢	Won
Iran coup attempt by June 30?	No	$10	54.0¢	Won
Iran coup attempt by June 30?	Yes	$35	23.7¢	Lost
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June?	Yes	$2	44.0¢	Lost
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30?	Yes	$2	15.2¢	Lost
Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?	No	$16	82.0¢	Won
Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$30	26.5¢	Lost
Will Israel annex any territory by June 30?	No	$27	88.6¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?	No	$1	5.0¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?	No	$33	85.4¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$46	73.9¢	Won
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$72	23.2¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	$6	85.0¢	Won
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?	No	$2	22.0¢	Lost
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	$1	0.4¢	Lost
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	$1	20.0¢	Won
Predators vs. Stars	Predators	$7	46.0¢	Lost
Predators vs. Stars	Stars	$7	56.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$16	80.0¢	Won
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	$37	32.8¢	Lost
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	$2	23.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	$7	69.0¢	Lost
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	$10	32.0¢	Lost
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-03-01?	Yes	$12	49.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	$10	60.0¢	Won
Will One Battle After Another win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$10	60.0¢	Lost
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	$30	29.0¢	Lost
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	$24	53.7¢	Won
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	$167	23.3¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?	No	$3	55.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?	Yes	$35	43.0¢	Won
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	$1	0.4¢	Lost
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	Yes	$8	56.0¢	Won
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?	No	$30	50.2¢	Won
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$5	2.5¢	Lost
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	$40	8.0¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	$17	72.0¢	Lost
Will Trump visit China by June 30?	No	$2	19.0¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?	No	$26	86.0¢	Won
Netanyahu out by April 30?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Lost
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	$22	46.5¢	Lost
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	$3	49.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $710b on March 31?	Yes	$2	25.0¢	Lost
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	No	$2	24.0¢	Lost
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$12	71.0¢	Lost

Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?Won
No$2 @ 31.0¢
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?Won
No$7 @ 56.0¢
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?Won
No$21 @ 62.9¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$36 @ 66.9¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?Lost
Yes$20 @ 10.0¢
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Won
Yes$42 @ 51.8¢
Iran coup attempt by June 30?Won
No$10 @ 54.0¢
Iran coup attempt by June 30?Lost
Yes$35 @ 23.7¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June?Lost
Yes$2 @ 44.0¢
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30?Lost
Yes$2 @ 15.2¢
Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?Won
No$16 @ 82.0¢
Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$30 @ 26.5¢
Will Israel annex any territory by June 30?Won
No$27 @ 88.6¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?Lost
No$1 @ 5.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?Won
No$33 @ 85.4¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$46 @ 73.9¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$72 @ 23.2¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?Won
No$6 @ 85.0¢
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$2 @ 22.0¢
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.4¢
Will Trump visit China by April 30?Won
No$1 @ 20.0¢
Predators vs. StarsLost
Predators$7 @ 46.0¢
Predators vs. StarsWon
Stars$7 @ 56.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
No$16 @ 80.0¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Lost
No$37 @ 32.8¢
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Lost
Yes$2 @ 23.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$7 @ 69.0¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Lost
Yes$10 @ 32.0¢
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-03-01?Won
Yes$12 @ 49.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Won
No$10 @ 60.0¢
Will One Battle After Another win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?Lost
Yes$10 @ 60.0¢
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?Lost
Yes$30 @ 29.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Won
No$24 @ 53.7¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Lost
Yes$167 @ 23.3¢
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?Lost
No$3 @ 55.0¢
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?Won
Yes$35 @ 43.0¢
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.4¢
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?Won
Yes$8 @ 56.0¢
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?Won
No$30 @ 50.2¢
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 2.5¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?Lost
Yes$40 @ 8.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Lost
No$17 @ 72.0¢
Will Trump visit China by June 30?Lost
No$2 @ 19.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?Won
No$26 @ 86.0¢
Netanyahu out by April 30?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?Lost
No$22 @ 46.5¢
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$3 @ 49.0¢
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $710b on March 31?Lost
Yes$2 @ 25.0¢
Will Trump visit China by May 31?Lost
No$2 @ 24.0¢
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Lost
Yes$12 @ 71.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?	—	Yes	$7	3.6¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?	—	No	$5	10.0¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?—
Yes$7 @ 3.6¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?—
No$5 @ 10.0¢