0xfd47…805a

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xfd47e2f30ac97571e6e68f51bf4531b108af805a
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+8.6pp

ROI

+11%

Win rate

72% @ 63.1¢

Brier

0.127

Resolved

653

Avg size

$45

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	74% (108/145)	+20%	145
Politics	61% (67/110)	+9%	110
Geopolitics	57% (17/30)	-41%	30
Sports	18% (3/17)	-29%	17
Economy	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Culture	100% (1/1)	+18%	1

Other145 bets
Hit rate
74% (108/145)
ROI
+20%
Politics110 bets
Hit rate
61% (67/110)
ROI
+9%
Geopolitics30 bets
Hit rate
57% (17/30)
ROI
-41%
Sports17 bets
Hit rate
18% (3/17)
ROI
-29%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+18%

Track record

64% hit · 196/304

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in October 2026?	No	$20	82.0¢	Won
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$1	1.9¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	Yes	$10	50.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture Rodynske by March 31?	No	$25	81.6¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	No	$120	57.2¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$300	57.5¢	Lost
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03?	Yes	$5	3.7¢	Lost
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$5	15.0¢	Lost
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	$20	29.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil settle at $90–$100 on April 8?	Yes	$5	90.0¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	$119	87.0¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$135	66.3¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$20	89.0¢	Won
Trump announces tariff for Iran military cooperation by April 17?	No	$50	87.4¢	Won
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?	No	$10	88.0¢	Won
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	No	$41	84.5¢	Won
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?	Yes	$51	67.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?	Yes	$95	53.3¢	Won
Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30?	No	$10	68.8¢	Won
Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30?	Yes	$15	38.3¢	Lost
Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$20	86.7¢	Lost
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$10	5.4¢	Lost
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in July 2026?	Yes	$20	77.9¢	Won
Will United Left (BSP) win at least one seat in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?	Yes	$6	63.8¢	Lost
Will there be fewer than 2 North Korea tests in May 2026?	No	$20	46.0¢	Lost
Will there be fewer than 2 North Korea tests in May 2026?	Yes	$29	83.4¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$1.2k	73.0¢	Won
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13?	Yes	$30	44.3¢	Lost
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in September 2026?	Yes	$40	70.9¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$410	72.5¢	Lost
Will Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) finish second on the party-list vote in Moscow?	Yes	$20	80.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?	No	$110	85.6¢	Won
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in July?	Yes	$60	87.8¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?	Yes	$395	18.3¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$19	79.0¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 21, 2026?	Yes	$25	90.0¢	Won
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?	No	$41	89.6¢	Won
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?	Yes	$20	87.0¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?	Yes	$120	22.3¢	Lost
Will Linke win the third-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Yes	$26	44.0¢	Won
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	$1	4.4¢	Lost
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 19?	Yes	$5	84.0¢	Won
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in April 2026?	Yes	$1	0.5¢	Lost
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$1	0.3¢	Lost
Will the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI(M)) win the most seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	$20	75.0¢	Lost
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	Yes	$105	77.9¢	Lost
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in August?	No	$293	80.7¢	Won
Will Iran strike UAE again in March?	Yes	$5	73.9¢	Won
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the July Meeting?	Yes	$10	37.0¢	Lost
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?	Yes	$5	32.0¢	Lost

Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in October 2026?Won
No$20 @ 82.0¢
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.9¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Won
Yes$10 @ 50.0¢
Will Russia capture Rodynske by March 31?Lost
No$25 @ 81.6¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Won
No$120 @ 57.2¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$300 @ 57.5¢
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03?Lost
Yes$5 @ 3.7¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 15.0¢
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24?Lost
Yes$20 @ 29.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil settle at $90–$100 on April 8?Won
Yes$5 @ 90.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Won
Yes$119 @ 87.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$135 @ 66.3¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$20 @ 89.0¢
Trump announces tariff for Iran military cooperation by April 17?Won
No$50 @ 87.4¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?Won
No$10 @ 88.0¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?Won
No$41 @ 84.5¢
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?Won
Yes$51 @ 67.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?Won
Yes$95 @ 53.3¢
Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30?Won
No$10 @ 68.8¢
Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30?Lost
Yes$15 @ 38.3¢
Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$20 @ 86.7¢
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$10 @ 5.4¢
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in July 2026?Won
Yes$20 @ 77.9¢
Will United Left (BSP) win at least one seat in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?Lost
Yes$6 @ 63.8¢
Will there be fewer than 2 North Korea tests in May 2026?Lost
No$20 @ 46.0¢
Will there be fewer than 2 North Korea tests in May 2026?Won
Yes$29 @ 83.4¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?Won
Yes$1.2k @ 73.0¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13?Lost
Yes$30 @ 44.3¢
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in September 2026?Won
Yes$40 @ 70.9¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$410 @ 72.5¢
Will Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) finish second on the party-list vote in Moscow?Won
Yes$20 @ 80.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?Won
No$110 @ 85.6¢
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in July?Lost
Yes$60 @ 87.8¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Lost
Yes$395 @ 18.3¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$19 @ 79.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 21, 2026?Won
Yes$25 @ 90.0¢
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$41 @ 89.6¢
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?Won
Yes$20 @ 87.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Lost
Yes$120 @ 22.3¢
Will Linke win the third-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?Won
Yes$26 @ 44.0¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 4.4¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 19?Won
Yes$5 @ 84.0¢
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in April 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.5¢
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.3¢
Will the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI(M)) win the most seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?Lost
Yes$20 @ 75.0¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?Lost
Yes$105 @ 77.9¢
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in August?Won
No$293 @ 80.7¢
Will Iran strike UAE again in March?Won
Yes$5 @ 73.9¢
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the July Meeting?Lost
Yes$10 @ 37.0¢
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?Lost
Yes$5 @ 32.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will AfD win 29-31 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	—	Yes	$1.4k	94.4¢
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$140	82.0¢
Will Trump speak to Masoud Pezeshkian in September?	Politics	No	$118	93.5¢
Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$100	89.0¢
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in September?	Politics	No	$60	96.5¢
Will Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado in September?	Politics	No	$50	90.0¢
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in September?	Politics	No	$35	91.2¢
FlyDubai co-pilot transferred to Israel by Oct. 31?	Politics	No	$31	96.9¢
Will there be 4 or more North Korea tests in October 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$31	91.0¢
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by October 31?	Politics	No	$30	79.3¢
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$30	63.5¢
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in September?	Politics	No	$30	96.0¢
Will Jordan Bardella be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	No	$30	95.8¢
Will Trump speak to Reza Pahlavi in September?	Politics	No	$30	96.1¢
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$30	28.3¢
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$30	89.0¢
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$30	15.7¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Politics	No	$21	95.3¢
Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31?	Politics	No	$20	93.0¢
Another Iranian Ambassador expelled by October 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$20	90.0¢
Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in September?	Politics	No	$20	95.0¢
Will there be exactly 1 North Korea test in October 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$20	92.3¢
Will Rafael Grossi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$20	67.4¢
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026?	Politics	No	$20	84.9¢
Will any country join the Mecca Agreement by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$20	95.0¢
Will Israel election happen as scheduled?	Politics	Yes	$20	89.6¢
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$15	0.9¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$15	69.2¢
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Politics	Yes	$15	86.0¢
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$15	22.0¢

Will AfD win 29-31 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?—
Yes$1.4k @ 94.4¢
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$140 @ 82.0¢
Will Trump speak to Masoud Pezeshkian in September?Politics
No$118 @ 93.5¢
Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$100 @ 89.0¢
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in September?Politics
No$60 @ 96.5¢
Will Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado in September?Politics
No$50 @ 90.0¢
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in September?Politics
No$35 @ 91.2¢
FlyDubai co-pilot transferred to Israel by Oct. 31?Politics
No$31 @ 96.9¢
Will there be 4 or more North Korea tests in October 2026?Geopolitics
No$31 @ 91.0¢
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by October 31?Politics
No$30 @ 79.3¢
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$30 @ 63.5¢
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in September?Politics
No$30 @ 96.0¢
Will Jordan Bardella be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
No$30 @ 95.8¢
Will Trump speak to Reza Pahlavi in September?Politics
No$30 @ 96.1¢
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$30 @ 28.3¢
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$30 @ 89.0¢
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$30 @ 15.7¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Politics
No$21 @ 95.3¢
Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31?Politics
No$20 @ 93.0¢
Another Iranian Ambassador expelled by October 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$20 @ 90.0¢
Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in September?Politics
No$20 @ 95.0¢
Will there be exactly 1 North Korea test in October 2026?Geopolitics
No$20 @ 92.3¢
Will Rafael Grossi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$20 @ 67.4¢
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026?Politics
No$20 @ 84.9¢
Will any country join the Mecca Agreement by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$20 @ 95.0¢
Will Israel election happen as scheduled?Politics
Yes$20 @ 89.6¢
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$15 @ 0.9¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$15 @ 69.2¢
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Politics
Yes$15 @ 86.0¢
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?Politics
Yes$15 @ 22.0¢