0xfd39…9ec8

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xfd39c48d1e5e6214c4a16d2d7f950f4a355b9ec8
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+5.5pp

ROI

+8%

Win rate

44% @ 38.3¢

Brier

0.174

Resolved

682

Avg size

$31

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	48% (198/415)	+6%	415
Other	58% (14/24)	+72%	24

Politics415 bets
Hit rate
48% (198/415)
ROI
+6%
Other24 bets
Hit rate
58% (14/24)
ROI
+72%

Track record

48% hit · 212/439

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Reid Hamer-Jackson win the 2026 Kamloops mayoral election?	No	$7	68.0¢	Won
Will UK annual inflation be between 3.1% and 3.3% in September?	No	$89	51.3¢	Won
Will UK annual inflation be between 3.1% and 3.3% in September?	Yes	$41	19.5¢	Lost
Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	$36	7.0¢	Lost
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Paraná?	Yes	$333	65.7¢	Won
Will Béatrice Hodonou win the next Hochelaga-Maisonneuve Quebec National Assembly election?	No	$8	77.0¢	Won
Will the Labour Party candidate win 35-40% of the vote in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?	Yes	$14	27.0¢	Lost
Will David Lavoie win the next Rosemont Quebec National Assembly election?	No	$8	80.0¢	Won
Will Craig Hodge win the 2026 Coquitlam mayoral election?	No	$11	21.6¢	Lost
Will Craig Hodge win the 2026 Coquitlam mayoral election?	Yes	$27	53.0¢	Won
Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Paraíba?	No	$27	5.3¢	Lost
Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Paraíba?	Yes	$5	84.0¢	Won
Will QS finish in second place in the Quebec general election?	No	$7	74.0¢	Won
Will Emmanuel Maurel finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?	No	$41	80.4¢	Won
Will NDP win the most seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election?	No	$158	55.5¢	Won
Will NDP win the most seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election?	Yes	$27	13.0¢	Lost
Will Ondrej Lunter win the 2026 Banská Bystrica Region gubernatorial election?	No	$1	9.1¢	Lost
Will Ondrej Lunter win the 2026 Banská Bystrica Region gubernatorial election?	Yes	$7	70.0¢	Won
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Sergipe?	Yes	$19	3.6¢	Lost
Will Augusto Cury win 6% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	$119	30.5¢	Lost
Will JHC win the 2026 Alagoas gubernatorial election?	No	$4	38.0¢	Lost
Will Augusto Cury finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	$67	32.8¢	Lost
Will Alexandre Daneau win the next Beauharnois Quebec National Assembly election?	No	$6	55.0¢	Lost
Will Celina Leão win the 2026 Federal District gubernatorial second round by 20%-25%?	No	$13	57.5¢	Won
Will Celina Leão win the 2026 Federal District gubernatorial second round by 20%-25%?	Yes	$190	36.9¢	Lost
Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro debate before second round?	No	$45	36.4¢	Lost
Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro debate before second round?	Yes	$382	75.6¢	Won
Will Lula win 44% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	$140	68.5¢	Lost
Will New People (NL) finish second on the party-list vote in Saint Petersburg?	Yes	$51	24.8¢	Won
Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election be 78-80%?	No	$185	36.0¢	Won
Will Lisa Beare win the next Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows British Columbia Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	$69	51.1¢	Lost
Will Randy Legault-Rankin win the next Laurier-Dorion Quebec National Assembly election?	No	$6	56.0¢	Won
Will Patrick Paquet win the next Vanier-Les Rivières Quebec National Assembly election?	No	$3	31.0¢	Lost
Will Patrick Paquet win the next Vanier-Les Rivières Quebec National Assembly election?	Yes	$1	12.0¢	Won
Will Bernard Sévigny win the next Richmond Quebec National Assembly election?	No	$7	69.0¢	Lost
Will Fatima Ezzahra El Mansouri be the next Prime Minister of Morocco?	Yes	$3	6.0¢	Won
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?	Yes	$22	20.2¢	Lost
Will Augusto Cury win between 1% and 2% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	$177	82.3¢	Won
Will Conny Glenn win the 2026 Kingston mayoral election?	Yes	$1	10.0¢	Won
Will Leanne Caron win the 2026 Guelph mayoral election?	Yes	$5	47.0¢	Won
Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Alagoas?	No	$45	8.6¢	Lost
Lula or Bolsonaro favored on October 3?	Lula	$27	13.0¢	Lost
Will NiP win the second most seats in the 2026 Bosnian general election?	No	$13	83.0¢	Won
Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Pernambuco?	Yes	$333	65.7¢	Won
Will Sol Zanetti win the next Jean-Lesage Quebec National Assembly election?	Yes	$7	33.0¢	Won
Democratic Senate odds 62-64% on October 16?	Yes	$179	34.8¢	Won
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win fewer than 50 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	$4	43.0¢	Won
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 40–60%?	No	$114	44.3¢	Lost
Will Carolyn Parrish win the 2026 Mississauga mayoral election?	No	$5	47.0¢	Won
Will Roman Zarzycký be the next Mayor of Plzeň?	No	$2	22.0¢	Lost

Will Reid Hamer-Jackson win the 2026 Kamloops mayoral election?Won
No$7 @ 68.0¢
Will UK annual inflation be between 3.1% and 3.3% in September?Won
No$89 @ 51.3¢
Will UK annual inflation be between 3.1% and 3.3% in September?Lost
Yes$41 @ 19.5¢
Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?Lost
Yes$36 @ 7.0¢
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Paraná?Won
Yes$333 @ 65.7¢
Will Béatrice Hodonou win the next Hochelaga-Maisonneuve Quebec National Assembly election?Won
No$8 @ 77.0¢
Will the Labour Party candidate win 35-40% of the vote in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?Lost
Yes$14 @ 27.0¢
Will David Lavoie win the next Rosemont Quebec National Assembly election?Won
No$8 @ 80.0¢
Will Craig Hodge win the 2026 Coquitlam mayoral election?Lost
No$11 @ 21.6¢
Will Craig Hodge win the 2026 Coquitlam mayoral election?Won
Yes$27 @ 53.0¢
Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Paraíba?Lost
No$27 @ 5.3¢
Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Paraíba?Won
Yes$5 @ 84.0¢
Will QS finish in second place in the Quebec general election?Won
No$7 @ 74.0¢
Will Emmanuel Maurel finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?Won
No$41 @ 80.4¢
Will NDP win the most seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election?Won
No$158 @ 55.5¢
Will NDP win the most seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election?Lost
Yes$27 @ 13.0¢
Will Ondrej Lunter win the 2026 Banská Bystrica Region gubernatorial election?Lost
No$1 @ 9.1¢
Will Ondrej Lunter win the 2026 Banská Bystrica Region gubernatorial election?Won
Yes$7 @ 70.0¢
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Sergipe?Lost
Yes$19 @ 3.6¢
Will Augusto Cury win 6% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
Yes$119 @ 30.5¢
Will JHC win the 2026 Alagoas gubernatorial election?Lost
No$4 @ 38.0¢
Will Augusto Cury finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
Yes$67 @ 32.8¢
Will Alexandre Daneau win the next Beauharnois Quebec National Assembly election?Lost
No$6 @ 55.0¢
Will Celina Leão win the 2026 Federal District gubernatorial second round by 20%-25%?Won
No$13 @ 57.5¢
Will Celina Leão win the 2026 Federal District gubernatorial second round by 20%-25%?Lost
Yes$190 @ 36.9¢
Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro debate before second round?Lost
No$45 @ 36.4¢
Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro debate before second round?Won
Yes$382 @ 75.6¢
Will Lula win 44% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
No$140 @ 68.5¢
Will New People (NL) finish second on the party-list vote in Saint Petersburg?Won
Yes$51 @ 24.8¢
Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election be 78-80%?Won
No$185 @ 36.0¢
Will Lisa Beare win the next Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows British Columbia Legislative Assembly election?Lost
Yes$69 @ 51.1¢
Will Randy Legault-Rankin win the next Laurier-Dorion Quebec National Assembly election?Won
No$6 @ 56.0¢
Will Patrick Paquet win the next Vanier-Les Rivières Quebec National Assembly election?Lost
No$3 @ 31.0¢
Will Patrick Paquet win the next Vanier-Les Rivières Quebec National Assembly election?Won
Yes$1 @ 12.0¢
Will Bernard Sévigny win the next Richmond Quebec National Assembly election?Lost
No$7 @ 69.0¢
Will Fatima Ezzahra El Mansouri be the next Prime Minister of Morocco?Won
Yes$3 @ 6.0¢
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?Lost
Yes$22 @ 20.2¢
Will Augusto Cury win between 1% and 2% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Won
No$177 @ 82.3¢
Will Conny Glenn win the 2026 Kingston mayoral election?Won
Yes$1 @ 10.0¢
Will Leanne Caron win the 2026 Guelph mayoral election?Won
Yes$5 @ 47.0¢
Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Alagoas?Lost
No$45 @ 8.6¢
Lula or Bolsonaro favored on October 3?Lost
Lula$27 @ 13.0¢
Will NiP win the second most seats in the 2026 Bosnian general election?Won
No$13 @ 83.0¢
Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Pernambuco?Won
Yes$333 @ 65.7¢
Will Sol Zanetti win the next Jean-Lesage Quebec National Assembly election?Won
Yes$7 @ 33.0¢
Democratic Senate odds 62-64% on October 16?Won
Yes$179 @ 34.8¢
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win fewer than 50 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?Won
Yes$4 @ 43.0¢
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 40–60%?Lost
No$114 @ 44.3¢
Will Carolyn Parrish win the 2026 Mississauga mayoral election?Won
No$5 @ 47.0¢
Will Roman Zarzycký be the next Mayor of Plzeň?Lost
No$2 @ 22.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will PAIS win the third most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?	Politics	No	$423	84.6¢
Will PAIS win the second most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?	Politics	No	$404	80.7¢
Will PP win the most seats in Toledo in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Politics	Yes	$390	77.8¢
Will PSOE win the second-most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Politics	Yes	$389	77.7¢
Will Nuevas Ideas (NI) gain the most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?	Politics	Yes	$389	77.8¢
Will PAN win the most seats in the 2027 Jalisco Congress election?	Politics	No	$388	77.5¢
Will JOLTS Job Openings be at least 7.4M in September?	Economy	No	$381	76.2¢
Will Georgia be the closest Governor's race in 2026?	Politics	No	$377	75.7¢
Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.0M and 7.1M in September?	Economy	No	$375	75.0¢
Will Édouard Philippe win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	No	$374	74.8¢
Will PRI win the most seats in the 2027 Quintana Roo Congress election?	Politics	No	$364	83.6¢
Will PAN win the most seats in the 2027 Nayarit Congress election?	Politics	No	$360	81.5¢
Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%?	Economy	No	$359	71.5¢
Will Republicans win the Ohio and Maine Senate seats, and Democrats win Iowa?	Politics	No	$353	79.6¢
Will PRI win the most seats in the 2027 Jalisco Congress election?	Politics	No	$352	81.7¢
Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Guerrero Congress election?	Politics	Yes	$339	67.6¢
Will Labor hold the most seats in the New South Wales Legislative Council after the next New South Wales state election?	Politics	Yes	$332	66.2¢
Talarico Texas Senate odds hit 70% by November 2?	Politics	No	$323	64.5¢
Will John Cornyn endorse Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate Election?	Politics	Yes	$321	47.2¢
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	No	$320	64.0¢
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in October?	Economy	No	$314	63.2¢
Will the Republican Party hold 190 or more House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$312	62.5¢
Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?	Economy	No	$308	61.3¢
Will Labor win the most seats in the next New South Wales state election?	Politics	Yes	$307	61.2¢
Will Labor win the second-most seats in the next New South Wales state election?	Politics	No	$305	73.9¢
Will Shooters, Fishers, Farmers win the third-most seats in the next New South Wales state election?	Politics	No	$305	86.0¢
Will PAN win the most seats in the 2027 Aguascalientes Congress election?	Politics	Yes	$304	60.7¢
Will Republicans win the Iowa, Kansas, and Nebraska Senate seats?	Politics	No	$300	60.0¢
Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.7% and 0.8% over the 12 month period ending in October 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$297	59.4¢
Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.9% and 1.0% over the 12 month period ending in October 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$296	59.1¢

Will PAIS win the third most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?Politics
No$423 @ 84.6¢
Will PAIS win the second most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?Politics
No$404 @ 80.7¢
Will PP win the most seats in Toledo in the 2026 Spanish general election?Politics
Yes$390 @ 77.8¢
Will PSOE win the second-most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?Politics
Yes$389 @ 77.7¢
Will Nuevas Ideas (NI) gain the most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?Politics
Yes$389 @ 77.8¢
Will PAN win the most seats in the 2027 Jalisco Congress election?Politics
No$388 @ 77.5¢
Will JOLTS Job Openings be at least 7.4M in September?Economy
No$381 @ 76.2¢
Will Georgia be the closest Governor's race in 2026?Politics
No$377 @ 75.7¢
Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.0M and 7.1M in September?Economy
No$375 @ 75.0¢
Will Édouard Philippe win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
No$374 @ 74.8¢
Will PRI win the most seats in the 2027 Quintana Roo Congress election?Politics
No$364 @ 83.6¢
Will PAN win the most seats in the 2027 Nayarit Congress election?Politics
No$360 @ 81.5¢
Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%?Economy
No$359 @ 71.5¢
Will Republicans win the Ohio and Maine Senate seats, and Democrats win Iowa?Politics
No$353 @ 79.6¢
Will PRI win the most seats in the 2027 Jalisco Congress election?Politics
No$352 @ 81.7¢
Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Guerrero Congress election?Politics
Yes$339 @ 67.6¢
Will Labor hold the most seats in the New South Wales Legislative Council after the next New South Wales state election?Politics
Yes$332 @ 66.2¢
Talarico Texas Senate odds hit 70% by November 2?Politics
No$323 @ 64.5¢
Will John Cornyn endorse Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate Election?Politics
Yes$321 @ 47.2¢
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
No$320 @ 64.0¢
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in October?Economy
No$314 @ 63.2¢
Will the Republican Party hold 190 or more House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Politics
Yes$312 @ 62.5¢
Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?Economy
No$308 @ 61.3¢
Will Labor win the most seats in the next New South Wales state election?Politics
Yes$307 @ 61.2¢
Will Labor win the second-most seats in the next New South Wales state election?Politics
No$305 @ 73.9¢
Will Shooters, Fishers, Farmers win the third-most seats in the next New South Wales state election?Politics
No$305 @ 86.0¢
Will PAN win the most seats in the 2027 Aguascalientes Congress election?Politics
Yes$304 @ 60.7¢
Will Republicans win the Iowa, Kansas, and Nebraska Senate seats?Politics
No$300 @ 60.0¢
Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.7% and 0.8% over the 12 month period ending in October 2026?Geopolitics
No$297 @ 59.4¢
Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.9% and 1.0% over the 12 month period ending in October 2026?Geopolitics
No$296 @ 59.1¢