0xfd2b…9ff9

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xfd2b05928e63a513efda1e60d6d925b271e29ff9
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+8.5pp

ROI

+10%

Win rate

55% @ 46.3¢

Brier

0.140

Resolved

1029

Avg size

$140

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	63% (67/107)	+6%	107
Sports	58% (38/65)	+45%	65
Politics	63% (20/32)	-25%	32
Geopolitics	58% (14/24)	+15%	24
Crypto	20% (1/5)	+33%	5
Tech	33% (1/3)	-1%	3

Other107 bets
Hit rate
63% (67/107)
ROI
+6%
Sports65 bets
Hit rate
58% (38/65)
ROI
+45%
Politics32 bets
Hit rate
63% (20/32)
ROI
-25%
Geopolitics24 bets
Hit rate
58% (14/24)
ROI
+15%
Crypto5 bets
Hit rate
20% (1/5)
ROI
+33%
Tech3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-1%

Track record

60% hit · 141/236

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Kai and Speed finish their Minecraft marathon by August 31?	No	$61	18.2¢	Lost
Will Rodri join Real Madrid?	Yes	$592	16.9¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	No	$7	34.0¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	Yes	$13	64.0¢	Won
Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	$42	70.0¢	Won
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	No	$619	86.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	$650	83.1¢	Won
Will Curaçao finish last in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?	Yes	$696	87.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$3.0k	85.2¢	Won
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?	Yes	$14	71.0¢	Won
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	Yes	$1.8k	88.0¢	Lost
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$888	74.0¢	Won
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13?	Yes	$103	47.0¢	Lost
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	$52	21.0¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?	No	$174	87.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?	No	$1.8k	89.0¢	Won
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	$716	85.2¢	Won
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Yes	$51	18.6¢	Lost
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	No	$708	68.2¢	Lost
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?	Yes	$483	69.0¢	Won
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Yes	$72	3.0¢	Lost
Will 4+ matches be suspended by weather protocol during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$67	88.0¢	Won
Will Pedro Porro be in Spain's Starting 11?	No	$131	77.0¢	Won
Will Kai and Speed have between 30 and 49 total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon?	No	$839	88.3¢	Lost
Will Edu Aguirre attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?	Yes	$266	38.0¢	Lost
Will the get-in price for the 2026 World Cup Final be less than $6,000?	No	$447	86.0¢	Won
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?	No	$40	79.0¢	Lost
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$9	18.0¢	Won
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance	Canada	$202	66.0¢	Won
Will Julian Alvarez stay at Atletico Madrid?	No	$11	46.2¢	Lost
Will Casemiro join Inter Miami?	No	$5	10.8¢	Lost
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?	Yes	$98	6.1¢	Lost
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$4.9k	82.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	$3.3k	86.9¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$2.0k	55.1¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$27	1.2¢	Lost
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's US Open?	Yes	$352	22.0¢	Won
Will Colombia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$129	41.0¢	Lost
Will Mike Maignan win the Golden Glove at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$164	32.0¢	Lost
Portugal vs. Spain: Team to Advance	Spain	$160	66.0¢	Won
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Yes	$53	10.6¢	Lost
Will a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?	No	$529	88.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	$7.5k	84.0¢	Won
Will Pablo Fornals be included in Spain's official 2026 World Cup squad list?	No	$204	67.2¢	Won
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$387	67.2¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	$246	41.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	$980	69.4¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$2.5k	83.7¢	Won
Will Jordan finish last in Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?	Yes	$511	73.0¢	Won
Will Norway win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$469	78.2¢	Lost

Will Kai and Speed finish their Minecraft marathon by August 31?Lost
No$61 @ 18.2¢
Will Rodri join Real Madrid?Lost
Yes$592 @ 16.9¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Lost
No$7 @ 34.0¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Won
Yes$13 @ 64.0¢
Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"?Won
No$42 @ 70.0¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?Won
No$619 @ 86.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Won
No$650 @ 83.1¢
Will Curaçao finish last in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?Won
Yes$696 @ 87.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$3.0k @ 85.2¢
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?Won
Yes$14 @ 71.0¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Lost
Yes$1.8k @ 88.0¢
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$888 @ 74.0¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13?Lost
Yes$103 @ 47.0¢
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"?Lost
No$52 @ 21.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Won
No$174 @ 87.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?Won
No$1.8k @ 89.0¢
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Won
No$716 @ 85.2¢
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open?Lost
Yes$51 @ 18.6¢
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$708 @ 68.2¢
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?Won
Yes$483 @ 69.0¢
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?Lost
Yes$72 @ 3.0¢
Will 4+ matches be suspended by weather protocol during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$67 @ 88.0¢
Will Pedro Porro be in Spain's Starting 11?Won
No$131 @ 77.0¢
Will Kai and Speed have between 30 and 49 total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon?Lost
No$839 @ 88.3¢
Will Edu Aguirre attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?Lost
Yes$266 @ 38.0¢
Will the get-in price for the 2026 World Cup Final be less than $6,000?Won
No$447 @ 86.0¢
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?Lost
No$40 @ 79.0¢
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?Won
Yes$9 @ 18.0¢
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to AdvanceWon
Canada$202 @ 66.0¢
Will Julian Alvarez stay at Atletico Madrid?Lost
No$11 @ 46.2¢
Will Casemiro join Inter Miami?Lost
No$5 @ 10.8¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?Lost
Yes$98 @ 6.1¢
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$4.9k @ 82.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Won
No$3.3k @ 86.9¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$2.0k @ 55.1¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$27 @ 1.2¢
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's US Open?Won
Yes$352 @ 22.0¢
Will Colombia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$129 @ 41.0¢
Will Mike Maignan win the Golden Glove at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$164 @ 32.0¢
Portugal vs. Spain: Team to AdvanceWon
Spain$160 @ 66.0¢
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open?Lost
Yes$53 @ 10.6¢
Will a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?Won
No$529 @ 88.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?Won
No$7.5k @ 84.0¢
Will Pablo Fornals be included in Spain's official 2026 World Cup squad list?Won
No$204 @ 67.2¢
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$387 @ 67.2¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Won
No$246 @ 41.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Won
No$980 @ 69.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
No$2.5k @ 83.7¢
Will Jordan finish last in Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?Won
Yes$511 @ 73.0¢
Will Norway win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$469 @ 78.2¢

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