0xfd09…42d9

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xfd09aeb0aa7fe388ca0d0232576c6240f5f842d9
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

-14.1pp

ROI

+3%

Win rate

43% @ 57.1¢

Brier

0.223

Resolved

Avg size

$72

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	50% (13/26)	+3%	26
Tech	20% (1/5)	-20%	5
Politics	40% (2/5)	+26%	5

Other26 bets
Hit rate
50% (13/26)
ROI
+3%
Tech5 bets
Hit rate
20% (1/5)
ROI
-20%
Politics5 bets
Hit rate
40% (2/5)
ROI
+26%

Track record

44% hit · 16/36

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Atlanta Dream vs. Connecticut Sun	Connecticut Sun	$54	18.0¢	Lost
Las Vegas Aces vs. Minnesota Lynx	Minnesota Lynx	$198	66.0¢	Won
Lakers vs. Heat	Heat	$693	77.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	Yes	$2	0.1¢	Lost
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	$2	0.1¢	Lost
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	Yes	$234	18.0¢	Lost
Clippers vs. Pelicans	Pelicans	$305	61.0¢	Won
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Chicago Sky	Chicago Sky	$120	57.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	$7	73.3¢	Lost
Raptors vs. Suns	Raptors	$570	57.0¢	Lost
Will UC get the second-most number of seats in the next Moroccan legislative elections?	Yes	$7	34.0¢	Lost
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	$2	0.1¢	Lost
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	No	$18	89.0¢	Won
Wizards vs. Jazz	Jazz	$378	63.0¢	Lost
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries	Dallas Wings	$62	30.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	$7	71.3¢	Lost
Phoenix Mercury vs. Atlanta Dream	Atlanta Dream	$165	66.0¢	Won
Portland Fire vs. Phoenix Mercury	Portland Fire	$136	33.0¢	Won
Raptors vs. Clippers	Clippers	$732	61.0¢	Won
Hawks vs. Rockets	Rockets	$580	58.0¢	Won
Will Reform Party (RP) win the 2026 South Korean local elections?	Yes	$2	0.1¢	Lost
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?	Yes	$126	74.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	$7	74.2¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	$2	0.1¢	Lost
Will Kai or Speed have more in-game deaths?	Kai	$6	28.0¢	Lost
Will Kai or Speed have more in-game deaths?	Speed	$14	71.0¢	Won
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	$2	0.1¢	Lost
Cavaliers vs. Bulls	Cavaliers	$405	81.0¢	Won
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$38	76.0¢	Won
Will the Rebuilding Korea Party (RKP) win the 2026 South Korean local elections?	Yes	$2	0.1¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	$2	0.1¢	Lost
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	$126	63.0¢	Won
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets	Nuggets	$760	76.0¢	Won
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	$2	0.1¢	Lost
Bucks vs. Clippers	Clippers	$957	87.0¢	Won
Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$17	83.0¢	Won

Atlanta Dream vs. Connecticut SunLost
Connecticut Sun$54 @ 18.0¢
Las Vegas Aces vs. Minnesota LynxWon
Minnesota Lynx$198 @ 66.0¢
Lakers vs. HeatLost
Heat$693 @ 77.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.1¢
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.1¢
Will Trump visit China by April 30?Lost
Yes$234 @ 18.0¢
Clippers vs. PelicansWon
Pelicans$305 @ 61.0¢
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Chicago SkyWon
Chicago Sky$120 @ 57.0¢
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?Lost
Yes$7 @ 73.3¢
Raptors vs. SunsLost
Raptors$570 @ 57.0¢
Will UC get the second-most number of seats in the next Moroccan legislative elections?Lost
Yes$7 @ 34.0¢
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.1¢
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Won
No$18 @ 89.0¢
Wizards vs. JazzLost
Jazz$378 @ 63.0¢
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State ValkyriesLost
Dallas Wings$62 @ 30.0¢
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?Lost
Yes$7 @ 71.3¢
Phoenix Mercury vs. Atlanta DreamWon
Atlanta Dream$165 @ 66.0¢
Portland Fire vs. Phoenix MercuryWon
Portland Fire$136 @ 33.0¢
Raptors vs. ClippersWon
Clippers$732 @ 61.0¢
Hawks vs. RocketsWon
Rockets$580 @ 58.0¢
Will Reform Party (RP) win the 2026 South Korean local elections?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.1¢
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?Won
Yes$126 @ 74.0¢
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?Lost
Yes$7 @ 74.2¢
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.1¢
Will Kai or Speed have more in-game deaths?Lost
Kai$6 @ 28.0¢
Will Kai or Speed have more in-game deaths?Won
Speed$14 @ 71.0¢
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.1¢
Cavaliers vs. BullsWon
Cavaliers$405 @ 81.0¢
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
Yes$38 @ 76.0¢
Will the Rebuilding Korea Party (RKP) win the 2026 South Korean local elections?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.1¢
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.1¢
Will Trump visit China by May 31?Won
Yes$126 @ 63.0¢
Trail Blazers vs. NuggetsWon
Nuggets$760 @ 76.0¢
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.1¢
Bucks vs. ClippersWon
Clippers$957 @ 87.0¢
Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?Won
Yes$17 @ 83.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Politics	Yes	$18	88.0¢

Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Politics
Yes$18 @ 88.0¢