0xfd07…ce86

Specialization by sphere

• Other15 bets

  Hit rate

  93% (14/15)

  ROI

  +29%

• Politics8 bets

  Hit rate

  88% (7/8)

  ROI

  +35%

• Geopolitics2 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (2/2)

  ROI

  +24%

• Tech1 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (1/1)

  ROI

  +26%

• Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Lost
  Yes$3 @ 82.2¢
• Will Avi Lewis win the Canadian NDP Leadership election?Won
  Yes$139 @ 86.8¢
• Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?Won
  No$66 @ 66.0¢
• Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Won
  No$264 @ 74.1¢
• Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?Won
  Yes$231 @ 75.0¢
• Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?Won
  No$60 @ 68.0¢
• US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Won
  No$105 @ 87.8¢
• US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?Won
  No$20 @ 90.0¢
• Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?Won
  No$6.3k @ 79.9¢
• Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?Won
  No$113 @ 75.0¢
• Will Troy Jackson be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?Won
  Yes$2.9k @ 75.2¢
• Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?Won
  No$4.3k @ 82.8¢
• US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?Won
  No$224 @ 37.7¢
• Ilhan Omar federally charged by March 31?Won
  No$172 @ 86.0¢
• Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Won
  No$18.5k @ 74.0¢
• Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?Lost
  No$14 @ 69.0¢
• Will Angie Craig be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?Won
  No$39 @ 75.0¢
• Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?Won
  No$60 @ 81.3¢
• US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?Won
  No$10.0k @ 75.7¢
• Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31?Won
  No$1.4k @ 69.5¢
• Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Won
  Yes$1.6k @ 76.0¢
• US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?Won
  No$40 @ 75.7¢
• Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?Won
  No$436 @ 87.2¢
• Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?Won
  No$2.1k @ 86.8¢
• Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?Won
  No$303 @ 75.0¢
• Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31?Won
  Yes$122 @ 79.3¢

Current positions

• Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Politics
  No$9.2k @ 75.2¢
• Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?Geopolitics
  No$3.1k @ 91.0¢
• Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?Geopolitics
  No$2.7k @ 93.0¢
• Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30?Politics
  No$2.2k @ 91.8¢
• Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?Politics
  No$1.7k @ 90.8¢
• US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?Politics
  No$1.3k @ 88.0¢
• Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?Tech
  No$1.1k @ 81.0¢
• Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
  Yes$623 @ 77.9¢
• Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by September 30, 2026?Geopolitics
  No$524 @ 88.6¢
• Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Politics
  No$524 @ 59.0¢
• Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?Tech
  No$502 @ 90.0¢
• Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
  No$491 @ 83.5¢
• Will the SpaceX Starship launch from Florida by December 31, 2026?Tech
  Yes$386 @ 50.8¢
• Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Politics
  Yes$316 @ 70.0¢
• IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?Politics
  No$261 @ 79.0¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Politics
  No$257 @ 96.5¢
• IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?Politics
  No$257 @ 95.0¢
• Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 30?Tech
  Yes$253 @ 85.1¢
• Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
  No$251 @ 90.3¢
• Blue Origin New Glenn launch in 2026?Tech
  No$7 @ 86.0¢