0xfc81…e072

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xfc81760d44a21acc9fd4b749a5bf9a9b2eeae072
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+4.9pp

ROI

+13%

Win rate

64% @ 58.9¢

Brier

0.167

Resolved

1386

Avg size

$11

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	56% (253/448)	+16%	448
Politics	60% (25/42)	-7%	42
Sports	29% (2/7)	+85%	7
Tech	75% (3/4)	-35%	4
Geopolitics	67% (2/3)	-4%	3
Culture	100% (1/1)	+43%	1

Other448 bets
Hit rate
56% (253/448)
ROI
+16%
Politics42 bets
Hit rate
60% (25/42)
ROI
-7%
Sports7 bets
Hit rate
29% (2/7)
ROI
+85%
Tech4 bets
Hit rate
75% (3/4)
ROI
-35%
Geopolitics3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
-4%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+43%

Track record

57% hit · 286/505

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Heroic (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2	FUT Esports	$2	58.0¢	Won
Will Levante UD win on 2026-01-11?	No	$4	80.0¢	Won
Madrid Open: Anna Bondar vs Elina Svitolina	Elina Svitolina	$5	11.1¢	Lost
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?	No	$30	35.0¢	Won
76ers vs. Raptors	76ers	$131	6.9¢	Lost
76ers vs. Raptors	Raptors	$113	8.0¢	Won
Iran Strike on Israel by January 15?	Yes	$27	4.9¢	Lost
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage	Azure Dragon Gaming	$30	76.0¢	Won
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage	Nightblood Gaming	$45	58.1¢	Lost
Will the US next strike Iran on January 30, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	$46	3.2¢	Lost
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-20?	Yes	$15	71.8¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on February 7?	Yes	$13	14.0¢	Lost
Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2026-01-11?	No	$4	85.0¢	Won
Kraken vs. Blues	Blues	$30	58.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 0°C on January 26?	Yes	$3	3.7¢	Lost
Central Connecticut State Blue Devils vs. Le Moyne Dolphins	Central Connecticut State Blue Devils	$3	51.0¢	Won
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by January 31?	No	$9	90.0¢	Won
Croatia Open, Qualification: Raul Brancaccio vs Federico Agustin Gomez	Federico Agustin Gomez	$41	50.0¢	Won
Maple Leafs vs. Avalanche	Maple Leafs	$4	47.9¢	Won
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $75 by end of February?	Yes	$22	74.6¢	Won
Madrid Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Tyra Caterina Grant	Tyra Caterina Grant	$23	24.0¢	Lost
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-01-21?	Yes	$2	83.0¢	Lost
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	Yes	$30	86.9¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2	TheMongolz	$2	51.0¢	Won
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-01-11?	Yes	$4	30.3¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: Wildcard vs FOKUS (BO3) - BC Game Masters Championship Playoffs	Wildcard	$37	86.4¢	Won
Al Hilal Saudi Club vs. Al Nassr Saudi Club: O/U 2.5	Under	$40	39.9¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$30	49.0¢	Lost
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Katarina Zavatska vs Lucia Bronzetti	Katarina Zavatska	$26	0.1¢	Lost
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	$31	21.0¢	Lost
Cary: Tung-Lin Wu vs Bernard Tomic	Bernard Tomic	$6	50.0¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Lazer Cats (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Group Stage	Lazer Cats	$9	41.0¢	Won
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Lazer Cats (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Group Stage	SPARTA	$14	62.0¢	Lost
KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs. Lillestrøm SK: Lillestrøm SK O/U 0.5	Over	$31	43.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 26-27°F on January 28?	Yes	$16	4.0¢	Lost
Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in January?	No	$43	34.3¢	Lost
Will FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw?	No	$93	76.0¢	Lost
Will FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw?	Yes	$31	26.0¢	Won
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?	No	$30	35.0¢	Won
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	Yes	$23	75.0¢	Won
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	$20	52.5¢	Won
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31?	No	$9	16.2¢	Lost
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31?	Yes	$60	78.5¢	Won
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?	Yes	$30	61.0¢	Lost
Geneva Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Casper Ruud	Jenson Brooksby	$39	22.7¢	Lost
Miami vs. Indiana	Indiana	$40	74.0¢	Won
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	Yes	$32	0.4¢	Lost
Will Everton FC win on 2026-04-25?	No	$15	88.0¢	Won
Will Capital One (COF) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$20	88.0¢	Won
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	Yes	$30	86.9¢	Lost

Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Heroic (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2Won
FUT Esports$2 @ 58.0¢
Will Levante UD win on 2026-01-11?Won
No$4 @ 80.0¢
Madrid Open: Anna Bondar vs Elina SvitolinaLost
Elina Svitolina$5 @ 11.1¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?Won
No$30 @ 35.0¢
76ers vs. RaptorsLost
76ers$131 @ 6.9¢
76ers vs. RaptorsWon
Raptors$113 @ 8.0¢
Iran Strike on Israel by January 15?Lost
Yes$27 @ 4.9¢
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group StageWon
Azure Dragon Gaming$30 @ 76.0¢
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group StageLost
Nightblood Gaming$45 @ 58.1¢
Will the US next strike Iran on January 30, 2026 (ET)?Lost
Yes$46 @ 3.2¢
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-20?Lost
Yes$15 @ 71.8¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on February 7?Lost
Yes$13 @ 14.0¢
Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2026-01-11?Won
No$4 @ 85.0¢
Kraken vs. BluesWon
Blues$30 @ 58.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 0°C on January 26?Lost
Yes$3 @ 3.7¢
Central Connecticut State Blue Devils vs. Le Moyne DolphinsWon
Central Connecticut State Blue Devils$3 @ 51.0¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by January 31?Won
No$9 @ 90.0¢
Croatia Open, Qualification: Raul Brancaccio vs Federico Agustin GomezWon
Federico Agustin Gomez$41 @ 50.0¢
Maple Leafs vs. AvalancheWon
Maple Leafs$4 @ 47.9¢
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $75 by end of February?Won
Yes$22 @ 74.6¢
Madrid Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Tyra Caterina GrantLost
Tyra Caterina Grant$23 @ 24.0¢
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-01-21?Lost
Yes$2 @ 83.0¢
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?Lost
Yes$30 @ 86.9¢
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2Won
TheMongolz$2 @ 51.0¢
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-01-11?Lost
Yes$4 @ 30.3¢
Counter-Strike: Wildcard vs FOKUS (BO3) - BC Game Masters Championship PlayoffsWon
Wildcard$37 @ 86.4¢
Al Hilal Saudi Club vs. Al Nassr Saudi Club: O/U 2.5Lost
Under$40 @ 39.9¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$30 @ 49.0¢
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Katarina Zavatska vs Lucia BronzettiLost
Katarina Zavatska$26 @ 0.1¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Lost
Yes$31 @ 21.0¢
Cary: Tung-Lin Wu vs Bernard TomicLost
Bernard Tomic$6 @ 50.0¢
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Lazer Cats (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Group StageWon
Lazer Cats$9 @ 41.0¢
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Lazer Cats (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Group StageLost
SPARTA$14 @ 62.0¢
KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs. Lillestrøm SK: Lillestrøm SK O/U 0.5Lost
Over$31 @ 43.0¢
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 26-27°F on January 28?Lost
Yes$16 @ 4.0¢
Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in January?Lost
No$43 @ 34.3¢
Will FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw?Lost
No$93 @ 76.0¢
Will FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw?Won
Yes$31 @ 26.0¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?Won
No$30 @ 35.0¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?Won
Yes$23 @ 75.0¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Won
Yes$20 @ 52.5¢
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? Lost
No$9 @ 16.2¢
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? Won
Yes$60 @ 78.5¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Lost
Yes$30 @ 61.0¢
Geneva Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Casper RuudLost
Jenson Brooksby$39 @ 22.7¢
Miami vs. IndianaWon
Indiana$40 @ 74.0¢
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$32 @ 0.4¢
Will Everton FC win on 2026-04-25?Won
No$15 @ 88.0¢
Will Capital One (COF) beat quarterly earnings?Won
No$20 @ 88.0¢
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?Lost
Yes$30 @ 86.9¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$60	74.5¢
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$40	83.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$30	84.0¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	Politics	No	$30	74.0¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Geopolitics
Yes$60 @ 74.5¢
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026?Geopolitics
No$40 @ 83.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$30 @ 84.0¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Politics
No$30 @ 74.0¢