0xfc76…0ad0

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xfc7612db87dc5d3b234fb673eda2858f9de00ad0
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+22.6pp

ROI

+41%

Win rate

77% @ 54.9¢

Brier

0.136

Resolved

515

Avg size

$146

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	58% (15/26)	+46%	26
Tech	63% (10/16)	+34%	16

Other26 bets
Hit rate
58% (15/26)
ROI
+46%
Tech16 bets
Hit rate
63% (10/16)
ROI
+34%

Track record

60% hit · 25/42

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?	No	$5.8k	77.2¢	Won
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$442	70.3¢	Won
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$6.2k	42.7¢	Won
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$720	29.3¢	Won
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?	Yes	$351	14.2¢	Lost
Grok 4.20 released by March 31?	Yes	$1.6k	85.9¢	Won
Grok 4.20 released by January 15?	No	$9.0k	47.8¢	Won
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?	No	$35	54.7¢	Won
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?	Yes	$985	63.6¢	Lost
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$1.2k	51.2¢	Lost
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?	Yes	$84	6.5¢	Lost
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$4.4k	68.0¢	Won
Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 18, 2026?	No	$192	52.2¢	Won
Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 18, 2026?	Yes	$38	52.9¢	Lost
Grok 4.20 released by January 31?	No	$732	76.1¢	Won
Grok 4.20 released by January 31?	Yes	$222	68.5¢	Lost
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$47	53.0¢	Won
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$19	87.1¢	Won
Grok 4.20 released by February 14?	No	$270	88.3¢	Won
Grok 4.20 released by February 28?	Yes	$8.2k	58.1¢	Won
Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of March 2026?	Yes	$165	11.4¢	Lost
Will xAI release a dLLM by June 30?	No	$29	73.0¢	Won
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?	Yes	$103	1.2¢	Lost
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$7.8k	88.9¢	Won
Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of March 2026?	Yes	$10	9.4¢	Lost
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?	Yes	$137	11.8¢	Lost
Will Trump visit China by June 30?	Yes	$324	88.0¢	Won
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?	No	$382	5.1¢	Lost
Meta's Watermelon released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$31	2.7¢	Lost
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026?	No	$185	14.9¢	Lost
Grok 5 released by March 31, 2026?	No	$7.4k	79.5¢	Won
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of January 2026?	No	$304	10.8¢	Lost
Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$11	11.9¢	Lost
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.1k	82.9¢	Won
Will Grok 4.20 not be released by January 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.7k	89.2¢	Won
Will the next Grok model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1450 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$342	89.1¢	Won
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$9.7k	86.5¢	Won
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$2.1k	13.0¢	Lost
Will xAI have the #2 AI model at the end of February 2026?	Yes	$70	10.4¢	Lost
Grok 4.20 released by January 9?	No	$2.2k	65.1¢	Won
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of March 2026?	No	$29	39.0¢	Won
Will Grok 4.20 not be released by February 14, 2026?	Yes	$126	84.7¢	Won

Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?Won
No$5.8k @ 77.2¢
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by September 30, 2026?Won
Yes$442 @ 70.3¢
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?Won
Yes$6.2k @ 42.7¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?Won
Yes$720 @ 29.3¢
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?Lost
Yes$351 @ 14.2¢
Grok 4.20 released by March 31?Won
Yes$1.6k @ 85.9¢
Grok 4.20 released by January 15?Won
No$9.0k @ 47.8¢
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?Won
No$35 @ 54.7¢
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?Lost
Yes$985 @ 63.6¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?Lost
Yes$1.2k @ 51.2¢
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?Lost
Yes$84 @ 6.5¢
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$4.4k @ 68.0¢
Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 18, 2026?Won
No$192 @ 52.2¢
Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 18, 2026?Lost
Yes$38 @ 52.9¢
Grok 4.20 released by January 31?Won
No$732 @ 76.1¢
Grok 4.20 released by January 31?Lost
Yes$222 @ 68.5¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?Won
Yes$47 @ 53.0¢
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$19 @ 87.1¢
Grok 4.20 released by February 14?Won
No$270 @ 88.3¢
Grok 4.20 released by February 28?Won
Yes$8.2k @ 58.1¢
Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of March 2026?Lost
Yes$165 @ 11.4¢
Will xAI release a dLLM by June 30?Won
No$29 @ 73.0¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?Lost
Yes$103 @ 1.2¢
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$7.8k @ 88.9¢
Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of March 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 9.4¢
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?Lost
Yes$137 @ 11.8¢
Will Trump visit China by June 30?Won
Yes$324 @ 88.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?Lost
No$382 @ 5.1¢
Meta's Watermelon released by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$31 @ 2.7¢
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$185 @ 14.9¢
Grok 5 released by March 31, 2026?Won
No$7.4k @ 79.5¢
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of January 2026?Lost
No$304 @ 10.8¢
Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$11 @ 11.9¢
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$1.1k @ 82.9¢
Will Grok 4.20 not be released by January 31, 2026?Won
Yes$1.7k @ 89.2¢
Will the next Grok model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1450 by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$342 @ 89.1¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?Won
Yes$9.7k @ 86.5¢
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$2.1k @ 13.0¢
Will xAI have the #2 AI model at the end of February 2026?Lost
Yes$70 @ 10.4¢
Grok 4.20 released by January 9?Won
No$2.2k @ 65.1¢
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of March 2026?Won
No$29 @ 39.0¢
Will Grok 4.20 not be released by February 14, 2026?Won
Yes$126 @ 84.7¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$2.3k	40.3¢
Meta's Watermelon released by October 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$1.2k	82.9¢
Will Grok AI beat T1 in 2026?	Sports	No	$738	89.4¢
Anthropic acquired before 2027?	Tech	No	$687	90.7¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Politics	No	$421	84.2¢
Meta's Watermelon released by October 15, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$394	77.2¢
Meta's Watermelon released by November 30, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$19	91.0¢

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$2.3k @ 40.3¢
Meta's Watermelon released by October 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$1.2k @ 82.9¢
Will Grok AI beat T1 in 2026? Sports
No$738 @ 89.4¢
Anthropic acquired before 2027?Tech
No$687 @ 90.7¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Politics
No$421 @ 84.2¢
Meta's Watermelon released by October 15, 2026?Tech
Yes$394 @ 77.2¢
Meta's Watermelon released by November 30, 2026?Tech
Yes$19 @ 91.0¢