0xfc1f…a246

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xfc1f2cdad82b15b8191b9985dd1ac70441bca246
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+6.4pp

ROI

+8%

Win rate

80% @ 73.9¢

Brier

0.131

Resolved

821

Avg size

$101

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	76% (94/124)	+0%	124
Politics	71% (54/76)	+6%	76
Geopolitics	86% (24/28)	+22%	28
Tech	82% (18/22)	+16%	22
Sports	64% (9/14)	+6%	14
Science	100% (1/1)	+23%	1
Culture	100% (1/1)	+44%	1
Business	100% (1/1)	+103%	1

Other124 bets
Hit rate
76% (94/124)
ROI
+0%
Politics76 bets
Hit rate
71% (54/76)
ROI
+6%
Geopolitics28 bets
Hit rate
86% (24/28)
ROI
+22%
Tech22 bets
Hit rate
82% (18/22)
ROI
+16%
Sports14 bets
Hit rate
64% (9/14)
ROI
+6%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+23%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+44%
Business1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+103%

Track record

76% hit · 202/267

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?	No	$387	88.0¢	Won
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	No	$63	84.0¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	$63	71.0¢	Won
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance	Argentina	$883	80.4¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	$1.3k	83.5¢	Won
Ebola case in the US by June 30?	No	$505	81.2¢	Won
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$192	11.5¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$1.5k	75.8¢	Won
Will Portugal vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Yes	$31	74.2¢	Lost
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$126	85.0¢	Won
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?	No	$250	86.3¢	Won
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	No	$1000	83.2¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle?	No	$87	77.4¢	Won
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$231	5.9¢	Lost
GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?	No	$126	89.7¢	Won
Iran coup attempt by June 30?	Yes	$76	13.7¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	$537	85.0¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?	No	$500	82.4¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$153	85.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	No	$140	84.0¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?	No	$125	87.0¢	Won
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	Yes	$250	55.8¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	$750	65.7¢	Won
James Comey arrested by May 15?	Yes	$72	72.0¢	Won
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	$63	78.5¢	Won
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	$52	18.7¢	Lost
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?	Yes	$32	61.0¢	Won
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	Yes	$5	13.0¢	Lost
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	$10	89.0¢	Won
Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 31?	No	$125	90.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	Yes	$500	79.1¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$6.6k	79.3¢	Won
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$126	82.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	$375	81.8¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	$475	77.8¢	Won
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$63	84.1¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?	No	$237	80.0¢	Won
Portugal vs. Spain: Team to Advance	Spain	$63	67.0¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	$250	81.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	$1.3k	57.5¢	Won
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02?	Yes	$32	57.5¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	$500	84.7¢	Won
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02?	Yes	$252	75.8¢	Won
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advance	Argentina	$125	88.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	$462	27.3¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	$250	75.9¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$2.0k	72.7¢	Won
US bank failure by July 31?	No	$126	89.0¢	Lost
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 7, 2026?	Yes	$126	76.0¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	$542	82.2¢	Won

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?Won
No$387 @ 88.0¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?Won
No$63 @ 84.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?Won
Yes$63 @ 71.0¢
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to AdvanceWon
Argentina$883 @ 80.4¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Won
No$1.3k @ 83.5¢
Ebola case in the US by June 30?Won
No$505 @ 81.2¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$192 @ 11.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$1.5k @ 75.8¢
Will Portugal vs. Croatia end in a draw?Lost
Yes$31 @ 74.2¢
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$126 @ 85.0¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?Won
No$250 @ 86.3¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
No$1000 @ 83.2¢
Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle?Won
No$87 @ 77.4¢
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$231 @ 5.9¢
GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?Won
No$126 @ 89.7¢
Iran coup attempt by June 30?Lost
Yes$76 @ 13.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Won
No$537 @ 85.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Won
No$500 @ 82.4¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$153 @ 85.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?Won
No$140 @ 84.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Won
No$125 @ 87.0¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?Lost
Yes$250 @ 55.8¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Won
Yes$750 @ 65.7¢
James Comey arrested by May 15?Won
Yes$72 @ 72.0¢
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?Won
Yes$63 @ 78.5¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Lost
Yes$52 @ 18.7¢
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?Won
Yes$32 @ 61.0¢
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?Lost
Yes$5 @ 13.0¢
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?Won
Yes$10 @ 89.0¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 31?Won
No$125 @ 90.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Won
Yes$500 @ 79.1¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$6.6k @ 79.3¢
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$126 @ 82.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Won
No$375 @ 81.8¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?Won
No$475 @ 77.8¢
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$63 @ 84.1¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?Won
No$237 @ 80.0¢
Portugal vs. Spain: Team to AdvanceWon
Spain$63 @ 67.0¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Won
No$250 @ 81.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Won
No$1.3k @ 57.5¢
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02?Won
Yes$32 @ 57.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?Won
No$500 @ 84.7¢
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02?Won
Yes$252 @ 75.8¢
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to AdvanceWon
Argentina$125 @ 88.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Won
No$462 @ 27.3¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$250 @ 75.9¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$2.0k @ 72.7¢
US bank failure by July 31?Lost
No$126 @ 89.0¢
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$126 @ 76.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Won
Yes$542 @ 82.2¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?	Tech	Yes	$328	32.6¢
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $43B by September 30?	Other	No	$125	79.1¢
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 in September?	Business	Yes	$62	35.7¢
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in September?	Business	Yes	$62	24.0¢
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in September?	Business	Yes	$62	22.1¢
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in September?	Business	Yes	$62	12.0¢

Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?Tech
Yes$328 @ 32.6¢
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $43B by September 30?Other
No$125 @ 79.1¢
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 in September?Business
Yes$62 @ 35.7¢
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in September?Business
Yes$62 @ 24.0¢
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in September?Business
Yes$62 @ 22.1¢
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in September?Business
Yes$62 @ 12.0¢