0xfc1f…a246

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xfc1f2cdad82b15b8191b9985dd1ac70441bca246
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+10.3pp

ROI

+3%

Win rate

85% @ 74.4¢

Brier

0.095

Resolved

183

Avg size

$86

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	77% (20/26)	-7%	26
Other	86% (6/7)	+27%	7
Tech	83% (5/6)	+20%	6
Sports	33% (1/3)	-73%	3
Geopolitics	100% (2/2)	+22%	2

Politics26 bets
Hit rate
77% (20/26)
ROI
-7%
Other7 bets
Hit rate
86% (6/7)
ROI
+27%
Tech6 bets
Hit rate
83% (5/6)
ROI
+20%
Sports3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-73%
Geopolitics2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+22%

Track record

77% hit · 34/44

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?	No	$387	88.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$1.5k	75.8¢	Won
Iran coup attempt by June 30?	Yes	$76	13.7¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	$537	85.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$153	85.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	No	$140	84.0¢	Won
James Comey arrested by May 15?	Yes	$72	72.0¢	Won
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	$63	78.5¢	Won
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	$52	18.7¢	Lost
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	Yes	$5	13.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	$475	77.8¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?	No	$237	80.0¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	$250	81.0¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	$542	82.2¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$994	80.4¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	Yes	$139	42.7¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	$1.6k	76.7¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	$100	87.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$33	33.0¢	Lost
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	Yes	$74	2.9¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?	No	$355	78.9¢	Won
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?	No	$62	88.7¢	Won
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?	Yes	$57	58.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	$1.2k	81.2¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$857	80.2¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?	No	$500	83.5¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	$1.0k	77.0¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	$500	57.3¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?	No	$78	78.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	$93	84.1¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?	No	$612	82.4¢	Won
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	$127	67.0¢	Lost
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$126	74.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	$82	82.0¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$1.0k	82.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 23, 2026?	No	$652	69.9¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?	No	$87	87.0¢	Won
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	Yes	$80	71.7¢	Lost
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	$470	85.4¢	Won
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	$25	87.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	$339	84.8¢	Won
Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle?	No	$87	77.4¢	Won
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$231	5.9¢	Lost
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$251	88.3¢	Won

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?Won
No$387 @ 88.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$1.5k @ 75.8¢
Iran coup attempt by June 30?Lost
Yes$76 @ 13.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Won
No$537 @ 85.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$153 @ 85.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?Won
No$140 @ 84.0¢
James Comey arrested by May 15?Won
Yes$72 @ 72.0¢
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?Won
Yes$63 @ 78.5¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Lost
Yes$52 @ 18.7¢
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?Lost
Yes$5 @ 13.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?Won
No$475 @ 77.8¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?Won
No$237 @ 80.0¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Won
No$250 @ 81.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Won
Yes$542 @ 82.2¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
No$994 @ 80.4¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?Won
Yes$139 @ 42.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$1.6k @ 76.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?Won
No$100 @ 87.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$33 @ 33.0¢
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?Lost
Yes$74 @ 2.9¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?Won
No$355 @ 78.9¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?Won
No$62 @ 88.7¢
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?Won
Yes$57 @ 58.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Won
No$1.2k @ 81.2¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Won
Yes$857 @ 80.2¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?Won
No$500 @ 83.5¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Lost
No$1.0k @ 77.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Won
Yes$500 @ 57.3¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?Won
No$78 @ 78.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?Won
No$93 @ 84.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?Won
No$612 @ 82.4¢
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$127 @ 67.0¢
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$126 @ 74.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?Won
No$82 @ 82.0¢
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?Won
Yes$1.0k @ 82.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 23, 2026?Won
No$652 @ 69.9¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?Won
No$87 @ 87.0¢
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?Lost
Yes$80 @ 71.7¢
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Won
Yes$470 @ 85.4¢
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Won
Yes$25 @ 87.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?Won
No$339 @ 84.8¢
Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle?Won
No$87 @ 77.4¢
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$231 @ 5.9¢
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$251 @ 88.3¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?	—	No	$500	87.5¢
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?	—	Yes	$250	91.7¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $224 in July?	—	No	$250	86.6¢
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?	—	No	$250	80.8¢
Next Mythos-Class Model released by July 31, 2026?	—	No	$250	91.9¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?	—	No	$250	93.0¢
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$250	94.2¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?	—	No	$250	91.0¢
Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?	—	No	$250	89.4¢
Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?	—	Yes	$250	93.4¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $1.05T by July 31?	—	No	$240	82.8¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?	—	Yes	$187	87.0¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in July?	—	No	$125	88.6¢
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?	—	Yes	$125	75.2¢
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$125	73.3¢
Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$125	91.7¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July?	—	No	$125	91.4¢
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$125	64.5¢
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $0.80T and $0.90T on July 31?	—	No	$125	86.7¢
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$125	81.5¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	—	Yes	$125	90.0¢
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in August?	—	No	$125	91.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	—	No	$125	89.0¢
Will a US-Iran deal in 2026 include Surrender of Iranian Enriched Uranium?	—	No	$125	89.0¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Other	No	$125	87.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	—	No	$125	85.0¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	—	Yes	$63	89.0¢
Will Revolut's valuation hit (HIGH) $100B by July 31?	—	No	$63	88.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$62	75.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.35T by July 31?	—	No	$62	92.8¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?—
No$500 @ 87.5¢
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?—
Yes$250 @ 91.7¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $224 in July?—
No$250 @ 86.6¢
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?—
No$250 @ 80.8¢
Next Mythos-Class Model released by July 31, 2026?—
No$250 @ 91.9¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?—
No$250 @ 93.0¢
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026?—
Yes$250 @ 94.2¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?—
No$250 @ 91.0¢
Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?—
No$250 @ 89.4¢
Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?—
Yes$250 @ 93.4¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $1.05T by July 31?—
No$240 @ 82.8¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?—
Yes$187 @ 87.0¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in July?—
No$125 @ 88.6¢
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?—
Yes$125 @ 75.2¢
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?Tech
Yes$125 @ 73.3¢
Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 31, 2026?—
Yes$125 @ 91.7¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July?—
No$125 @ 91.4¢
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$125 @ 64.5¢
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $0.80T and $0.90T on July 31?—
No$125 @ 86.7¢
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$125 @ 81.5¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?—
Yes$125 @ 90.0¢
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in August?—
No$125 @ 91.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?—
No$125 @ 89.0¢
Will a US-Iran deal in 2026 include Surrender of Iranian Enriched Uranium?—
No$125 @ 89.0¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?Other
No$125 @ 87.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?—
No$125 @ 85.0¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?—
Yes$63 @ 89.0¢
Will Revolut's valuation hit (HIGH) $100B by July 31?—
No$63 @ 88.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$62 @ 75.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.35T by July 31?—
No$62 @ 92.8¢