0xfbff…5830

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xfbff8d110ff1a34e486d791b389ea4d5f8cc5830
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+12.0pp

ROI

+22%

Win rate

70% @ 58.0¢

Brier

0.140

Resolved

782

Avg size

$123

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	72% (96/134)	+25%	134
Politics	67% (16/24)	+9%	24
Geopolitics	67% (6/9)	-5%	9
Tech	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+12%	1

Other134 bets
Hit rate
72% (96/134)
ROI
+25%
Politics24 bets
Hit rate
67% (16/24)
ROI
+9%
Geopolitics9 bets
Hit rate
67% (6/9)
ROI
-5%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+12%

Track record

70% hit · 119/169

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	No	$158	35.4¢	Won
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	$271	90.3¢	Won
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?	No	$739	82.2¢	Won
Will Russia capture Rodynske by March 31?	Yes	$41	41.0¢	Won
French election called by October 10?	No	$86	86.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?	Yes	$80	8.0¢	Lost
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?	Yes	$347	50.4¢	Won
Will four or more people dissent the April Fed decision?	No	$2.0k	86.2¢	Won
Will Diplo run the 5k in under 21 minutes?	No	$255	63.2¢	Lost
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	No	$150	75.0¢	Won
Nuclear weapon detonation by June 30?	No	$1.1k	84.8¢	Won
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	$252	41.5¢	Lost
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?	Yes	$328	65.6¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026?	No	$354	88.4¢	Won
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?	No	$255	85.0¢	Won
Will there be a US x Iran ceasefire before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	$273	45.5¢	Won
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 20?	No	$46	57.0¢	Won
Maduro mugshot released by January 16?	No	$395	79.0¢	Won
Nikita Bier out as Head of Product at X by December 31?	No	$190	76.0¢	Won
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	$215	43.0¢	Lost
Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show?	No	$160	32.0¢	Lost
Peter Mandelson charged by March 31?	No	$39	77.0¢	Won
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31?	No	$714	83.6¢	Won
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	Yes	$556	79.4¢	Lost
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?	No	$1.7k	86.0¢	Won
Will Kendrick Lamar be the #1 searched person on Google this year?	Yes	$37	3.7¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?	No	$243	81.0¢	Won
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?	Yes	$257	25.8¢	Won
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?	Yes	$156	52.0¢	Won
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?	No	$337	84.3¢	Won
Will GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026?	No	$333	63.2¢	Won
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?	No	$1.4k	85.4¢	Won
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?	No	$352	32.0¢	Lost
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?	Yes	$890	89.0¢	Won
Will "Wicked: For Good" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 150m and 163m?	Yes	$25	37.0¢	Lost
Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025?	No	$133	42.1¢	Lost
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?	Yes	$47	47.0¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?	No	$106	84.0¢	Won
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch?	No	$770	77.0¢	Won
French election called by December 31?	No	$103	33.7¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$3.0k	63.8¢	Won
Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?	No	$124	82.8¢	Lost
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win 30-34 seats in the Slovenian National Assembly in this election?	No	$501	83.5¢	Won
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?	Yes	$120	24.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	Yes	$300	30.0¢	Lost
Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in the runoff of the 2026 Paris municipal election by 15–20%?	No	$83	82.5¢	Won
Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes?	No	$620	62.0¢	Won
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$240	80.0¢	Lost
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31?	No	$50	9.0¢	Lost
Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?	No	$232	58.0¢	Won

Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?Won
No$158 @ 35.4¢
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?Won
No$271 @ 90.3¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?Won
No$739 @ 82.2¢
Will Russia capture Rodynske by March 31?Won
Yes$41 @ 41.0¢
French election called by October 10?Won
No$86 @ 86.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?Lost
Yes$80 @ 8.0¢
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?Won
Yes$347 @ 50.4¢
Will four or more people dissent the April Fed decision?Won
No$2.0k @ 86.2¢
Will Diplo run the 5k in under 21 minutes?Lost
No$255 @ 63.2¢
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?Won
No$150 @ 75.0¢
Nuclear weapon detonation by June 30?Won
No$1.1k @ 84.8¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Lost
Yes$252 @ 41.5¢
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?Lost
Yes$328 @ 65.6¢
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026?Won
No$354 @ 88.4¢
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?Won
No$255 @ 85.0¢
Will there be a US x Iran ceasefire before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?Won
Yes$273 @ 45.5¢
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 20?Won
No$46 @ 57.0¢
Maduro mugshot released by January 16?Won
No$395 @ 79.0¢
Nikita Bier out as Head of Product at X by December 31?Won
No$190 @ 76.0¢
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?Lost
Yes$215 @ 43.0¢
Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show?Lost
No$160 @ 32.0¢
Peter Mandelson charged by March 31?Won
No$39 @ 77.0¢
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31?Won
No$714 @ 83.6¢
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionLost
Yes$556 @ 79.4¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?Won
No$1.7k @ 86.0¢
Will Kendrick Lamar be the #1 searched person on Google this year?Lost
Yes$37 @ 3.7¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?Won
No$243 @ 81.0¢
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?Won
Yes$257 @ 25.8¢
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?Won
Yes$156 @ 52.0¢
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$337 @ 84.3¢
Will GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026?Won
No$333 @ 63.2¢
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?Won
No$1.4k @ 85.4¢
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?Lost
No$352 @ 32.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$890 @ 89.0¢
Will "Wicked: For Good" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 150m and 163m?Lost
Yes$25 @ 37.0¢
Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025?Lost
No$133 @ 42.1¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?Lost
Yes$47 @ 47.0¢
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?Won
No$106 @ 84.0¢
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch?Won
No$770 @ 77.0¢
French election called by December 31?Won
No$103 @ 33.7¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$3.0k @ 63.8¢
Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$124 @ 82.8¢
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win 30-34 seats in the Slovenian National Assembly in this election?Won
No$501 @ 83.5¢
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?Lost
Yes$120 @ 24.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Lost
Yes$300 @ 30.0¢
Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in the runoff of the 2026 Paris municipal election by 15–20%?Won
No$83 @ 82.5¢
Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes?Won
No$620 @ 62.0¢
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$240 @ 80.0¢
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31?Lost
No$50 @ 9.0¢
Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?Won
No$232 @ 58.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Culture	No	$933	93.3¢
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Politics	No	$722	72.2¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?	Tech	No	$415	83.0¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Politics	No	$285	57.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$204	68.0¢
AI bubble burst in 2026?	Tech	No	$74	74.2¢

Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?Culture
No$933 @ 93.3¢
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Politics
No$722 @ 72.2¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?Tech
No$415 @ 83.0¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Politics
No$285 @ 57.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$204 @ 68.0¢
AI bubble burst in 2026?Tech
No$74 @ 74.2¢