0xfb1b…a11d

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xfb1b4e2db61efb47bfb1ac92807c76d4f367a11d
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+11.9pp

ROI

+21%

Win rate

50% @ 38.2¢

Brier

0.184

Resolved

1019

Avg size

$133

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	46% (83/180)	+22%	180
Tech	63% (12/19)	+13%	19
Politics	50% (2/4)	-28%	4

Other180 bets
Hit rate
46% (83/180)
ROI
+22%
Tech19 bets
Hit rate
63% (12/19)
ROI
+13%
Politics4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
-28%

Track record

48% hit · 97/203

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	No	$7.2k	89.4¢	Won
SSI public model released by September 30, 2026?	No	$365	58.2¢	Won
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by September 30, 2026?	No	$1.7k	95.5¢	Won
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$95	55.0¢	Lost
Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	No	$1.9k	86.3¢	Won
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$152	45.0¢	Lost
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$1.0k	95.0¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$4.1k	83.6¢	Won
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by August 31?	Yes	$24	18.8¢	Lost
GPT ads by December 31?	No	$1.3k	89.5¢	Won
Will GPT-5 be released by August 10?	Yes	$1.4k	85.0¢	Won
GPT-5.3 released by March 15, 2026?	Yes	$1	89.0¢	Won
OpenAI browser by September 30?	No	$53	46.9¢	Won
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$415	59.7¢	Lost
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?	Yes	$613	82.6¢	Lost
Will Grok-4 be the top AI before August?	No	$326	72.9¢	Won
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.5k	45.0¢	Lost
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?	Yes	$68	4.6¢	Won
Will OpenAI GPT score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	$80	48.8¢	Won
Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28?	Yes	$2.2k	72.0¢	Won
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31?	No	$730	73.0¢	Won
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31?	Yes	$83	11.9¢	Lost
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?	No	$24	85.0¢	Won
Claude 4 released in May?	No	$175	38.4¢	Lost
Claude 4 released in May?	Yes	$160	80.0¢	Won
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30?	No	$222	19.0¢	Lost
X Money launch in 2025?	Yes	$26	23.0¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025?	Yes	$1.2k	60.9¢	Won
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 13?	No	$211	81.0¢	Won
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?	No	$181	45.1¢	Won
Brown and MIT shooters confirmed to be same person?	No	$541	53.0¢	Lost
Brown and MIT shooters confirmed to be same person?	Yes	$192	77.4¢	Won
Will Nicolás Maduro be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$77	88.0¢	Won
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?	No	$3.0k	19.5¢	Won
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$22	39.0¢	Lost
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?	Yes	$13	10.0¢	Lost
Will xAI have the top AI model on May 31?	Yes	$126	2.2¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of December 2025?	Yes	$4	2.6¢	Lost
Will Claude 5 be released by February 14, 2026?	Yes	$2.1k	84.1¢	Lost
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30?	Yes	$10	5.0¢	Lost
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 16?	Yes	$445	89.0¢	Lost
OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?	No	$324	87.0¢	Won
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	$1.7k	82.0¢	Won
Will any Google Gemini 3 model score at least 1600 on LMArena by December 31?	Yes	$27	9.0¢	Lost
Will Mistral have the second-best AI model at the end of February 2026?	Yes	$3	0.6¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on August 31?	No	$29	88.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $340b and $350b on August 31?	No	$30	71.0¢	Lost
Will xAI have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025?	Yes	$16	2.3¢	Lost
US government shutdown Saturday?	Yes	$970	53.3¢	Won
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	No	$393	17.6¢	Lost

Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?Won
No$7.2k @ 89.4¢
SSI public model released by September 30, 2026?Won
No$365 @ 58.2¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by September 30, 2026?Won
No$1.7k @ 95.5¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$95 @ 55.0¢
Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?Won
No$1.9k @ 86.3¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$152 @ 45.0¢
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by September 30, 2026?Won
Yes$1.0k @ 95.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Won
Yes$4.1k @ 83.6¢
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by August 31?Lost
Yes$24 @ 18.8¢
GPT ads by December 31?Won
No$1.3k @ 89.5¢
Will GPT-5 be released by August 10?Won
Yes$1.4k @ 85.0¢
GPT-5.3 released by March 15, 2026?Won
Yes$1 @ 89.0¢
OpenAI browser by September 30?Won
No$53 @ 46.9¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$415 @ 59.7¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?Lost
Yes$613 @ 82.6¢
Will Grok-4 be the top AI before August?Won
No$326 @ 72.9¢
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.5k @ 45.0¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?Won
Yes$68 @ 4.6¢
Will OpenAI GPT score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Won
Yes$80 @ 48.8¢
Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28?Won
Yes$2.2k @ 72.0¢
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31?Won
No$730 @ 73.0¢
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31?Lost
Yes$83 @ 11.9¢
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?Won
No$24 @ 85.0¢
Claude 4 released in May?Lost
No$175 @ 38.4¢
Claude 4 released in May?Won
Yes$160 @ 80.0¢
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30?Lost
No$222 @ 19.0¢
X Money launch in 2025?Lost
Yes$26 @ 23.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025?Won
Yes$1.2k @ 60.9¢
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 13?Won
No$211 @ 81.0¢
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?Won
No$181 @ 45.1¢
Brown and MIT shooters confirmed to be same person?Lost
No$541 @ 53.0¢
Brown and MIT shooters confirmed to be same person?Won
Yes$192 @ 77.4¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the next leader out before 2027?Won
Yes$77 @ 88.0¢
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?Won
No$3.0k @ 19.5¢
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$22 @ 39.0¢
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?Lost
Yes$13 @ 10.0¢
Will xAI have the top AI model on May 31?Lost
Yes$126 @ 2.2¢
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of December 2025?Lost
Yes$4 @ 2.6¢
Will Claude 5 be released by February 14, 2026?Lost
Yes$2.1k @ 84.1¢
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30?Lost
Yes$10 @ 5.0¢
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 16?Lost
Yes$445 @ 89.0¢
OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?Won
No$324 @ 87.0¢
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Won
Yes$1.7k @ 82.0¢
Will any Google Gemini 3 model score at least 1600 on LMArena by December 31?Lost
Yes$27 @ 9.0¢
Will Mistral have the second-best AI model at the end of February 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 0.6¢
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on August 31?Won
No$29 @ 88.0¢
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $340b and $350b on August 31?Lost
No$30 @ 71.0¢
Will xAI have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025?Lost
Yes$16 @ 2.3¢
US government shutdown Saturday?Won
Yes$970 @ 53.3¢
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$393 @ 17.6¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$4.4k	61.1¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$4.2k	67.6¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Tech	No	$1.2k	49.5¢
Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO day?	Tech	No	$929	92.9¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Tech	No	$899	73.4¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 9, 2026?	Tech	No	$885	78.4¢
Will Claude Fable's output price be at or below $30 in 2026?	Tech	No	$879	75.7¢
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$806	79.6¢
Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$767	68.3¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$666	26.5¢
Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$586	25.8¢
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	Tech	No	$501	32.0¢
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$316	23.7¢
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$243	49.9¢
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?	Politics	No	$238	34.0¢
Will Claude Fable's output price be at or below $45 in 2026?	Tech	No	$140	55.3¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	Tech	Yes	$136	84.5¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 15, 2026?	Tech	No	$127	51.0¢
Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	Tech	No	$118	26.5¢
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$104	46.0¢
Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?	Tech	Yes	$95	37.0¢
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	Tech	Yes	$88	21.9¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$51	24.0¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$40	18.0¢
Will Claude Fable's output price be at or above $55 in 2026?	Tech	No	$29	45.0¢
Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?	Tech	No	$14	7.0¢
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?	Tech	No	$3	54.0¢
Anthropic acquired before 2027?	Tech	No	$2	60.0¢
Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027?	Tech	No	$1	67.0¢

Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$4.4k @ 61.1¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$4.2k @ 67.6¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech
No$1.2k @ 49.5¢
Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO day?Tech
No$929 @ 92.9¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Tech
No$899 @ 73.4¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 9, 2026?Tech
No$885 @ 78.4¢
Will Claude Fable's output price be at or below $30 in 2026?Tech
No$879 @ 75.7¢
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?Tech
No$806 @ 79.6¢
Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$767 @ 68.3¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$666 @ 26.5¢
Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?Tech
No$586 @ 25.8¢
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Tech
No$501 @ 32.0¢
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026?Tech
No$316 @ 23.7¢
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$243 @ 49.9¢
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?Politics
No$238 @ 34.0¢
Will Claude Fable's output price be at or below $45 in 2026?Tech
No$140 @ 55.3¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Tech
Yes$136 @ 84.5¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 15, 2026?Tech
No$127 @ 51.0¢
Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Tech
No$118 @ 26.5¢
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?Tech
Yes$104 @ 46.0¢
Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?Tech
Yes$95 @ 37.0¢
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?Tech
Yes$88 @ 21.9¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$51 @ 24.0¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?Tech
No$40 @ 18.0¢
Will Claude Fable's output price be at or above $55 in 2026?Tech
No$29 @ 45.0¢
Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?Tech
No$14 @ 7.0¢
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?Tech
No$3 @ 54.0¢
Anthropic acquired before 2027?Tech
No$2 @ 60.0¢
Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027?Tech
No$1 @ 67.0¢