0xfaf6…cc47

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xfaf680c17a9cca24ff0773ae2d9f7db49c02cc47
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+10.2pp

ROI

+6%

Win rate

64% @ 53.4¢

Brier

0.118

Resolved

889

Avg size

$466

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	60% (18/30)	+23%	30
Other	77% (23/30)	+16%	30
Geopolitics	69% (9/13)	-5%	13
Sports	44% (4/9)	-89%	9

Politics30 bets
Hit rate
60% (18/30)
ROI
+23%
Other30 bets
Hit rate
77% (23/30)
ROI
+16%
Geopolitics13 bets
Hit rate
69% (9/13)
ROI
-5%
Sports9 bets
Hit rate
44% (4/9)
ROI
-89%

Track record

66% hit · 54/82

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	$413	85.1¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?	No	$2.5k	86.1¢	Won
Will Byron Buxton be traded by the 2026 MLB Trade Deadline?	No	$86	77.5¢	Won
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	$132	3.8¢	Lost
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$20.0k	17.2¢	Lost
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	$1.1k	83.0¢	Won
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	Yes	$3.5k	87.0¢	Lost
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?	No	$7.9k	85.0¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$145	3.8¢	Lost
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?	Yes	$3.2k	81.0¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?	No	$104	88.0¢	Won
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	No	$458	39.2¢	Lost
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	$2.9k	81.9¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?	Yes	$1.8k	87.4¢	Won
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	Yes	$2.9k	80.9¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$2.4k	0.7¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	Yes	$862	86.2¢	Won
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$25.7k	12.9¢	Lost
Giants vs. Rams	Giants	$26	26.0¢	Lost
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	Yes	$127	30.0¢	Lost
Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	No	$1.1k	81.0¢	Won
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5)	Paraguay	$268	76.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$3.7k	72.4¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?	Yes	$1.9k	88.5¢	Won
Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026?	Yes	$214	89.0¢	Won
49ers vs. Rams	49ers	$35	35.0¢	Won
Will Troy Jackson be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?	Yes	$1.5k	84.3¢	Won
Buccaneers vs. Bengals	Buccaneers	$98	34.9¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?	No	$1.5k	88.0¢	Won
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?	No	$1.1k	85.0¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	No	$3.5k	79.8¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	Yes	$2.5k	27.2¢	Lost
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30?	No	$1.2k	87.0¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	No	$1.8k	84.0¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	$29.4k	69.5¢	Won
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	$1.8k	72.7¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	$9.6k	83.8¢	Won
Will New York Yankees win the 2026 AL East title?	Yes	$190	19.0¢	Lost
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?	No	$4	86.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?	Yes	$9.4k	77.3¢	Won
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	$14	69.0¢	Won
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$860	86.0¢	Won
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	Yes	$425	86.0¢	Won
Spain vs. Belgium: Team to Advance	Spain	$369	73.8¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?	Yes	$95	45.0¢	Won
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	No	$1.3k	82.9¢	Lost
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	Yes	$207	21.0¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	$881	48.0¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$94.6k	54.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in August?	No	$9.8k	88.0¢	Won

Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Lost
Yes$413 @ 85.1¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?Won
No$2.5k @ 86.1¢
Will Byron Buxton be traded by the 2026 MLB Trade Deadline?Won
No$86 @ 77.5¢
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Lost
Yes$132 @ 3.8¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$20.0k @ 17.2¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Won
No$1.1k @ 83.0¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Lost
Yes$3.5k @ 87.0¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?Won
No$7.9k @ 85.0¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$145 @ 3.8¢
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?Won
Yes$3.2k @ 81.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Won
No$104 @ 88.0¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Lost
No$458 @ 39.2¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Won
No$2.9k @ 81.9¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?Won
Yes$1.8k @ 87.4¢
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?Won
Yes$2.9k @ 80.9¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$2.4k @ 0.7¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Won
Yes$862 @ 86.2¢
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$25.7k @ 12.9¢
Giants vs. RamsLost
Giants$26 @ 26.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Lost
Yes$127 @ 30.0¢
Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?Won
No$1.1k @ 81.0¢
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5)Won
Paraguay$268 @ 76.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$3.7k @ 72.4¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?Won
Yes$1.9k @ 88.5¢
Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026?Won
Yes$214 @ 89.0¢
49ers vs. RamsWon
49ers$35 @ 35.0¢
Will Troy Jackson be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?Won
Yes$1.5k @ 84.3¢
Buccaneers vs. BengalsLost
Buccaneers$98 @ 34.9¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?Won
No$1.5k @ 88.0¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?Won
No$1.1k @ 85.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Won
No$3.5k @ 79.8¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Lost
Yes$2.5k @ 27.2¢
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30?Won
No$1.2k @ 87.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Lost
No$1.8k @ 84.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Won
Yes$29.4k @ 69.5¢
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?Won
No$1.8k @ 72.7¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Won
No$9.6k @ 83.8¢
Will New York Yankees win the 2026 AL East title?Lost
Yes$190 @ 19.0¢
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?Lost
No$4 @ 86.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?Won
Yes$9.4k @ 77.3¢
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?Won
Yes$14 @ 69.0¢
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$860 @ 86.0¢
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Won
Yes$425 @ 86.0¢
Spain vs. Belgium: Team to AdvanceWon
Spain$369 @ 73.8¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?Won
Yes$95 @ 45.0¢
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?Lost
No$1.3k @ 82.9¢
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?Won
Yes$207 @ 21.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
No$881 @ 48.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$94.6k @ 54.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in August?Won
No$9.8k @ 88.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$30.1k	93.6¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	Geopolitics	No	$28.0k	98.3¢
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	No	$16.9k	97.4¢
Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$11.0k	84.0¢
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?	Politics	No	$10.9k	92.8¢
Will the Republican Party win the MD-01 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$7.3k	89.6¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in September?	Other	No	$5.4k	98.4¢
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Politics	No	$4.3k	94.8¢
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 56 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Politics	No	$4.2k	97.5¢
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026	Politics	No	$3.7k	94.6¢
Republican House odds hit 20% by October 31?	Politics	No	$3.6k	89.6¢
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Politics	No	$3.1k	94.3¢
Will the Democratic Party win the NM-03 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$3.1k	93.0¢
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$3.1k	88.1¢
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-13 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$3.1k	91.2¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in September?	Other	No	$2.9k	95.8¢
Will the Republicans win the Arizona governor race in 2026?	Politics	No	$2.9k	87.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the WA-03 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$2.8k	85.5¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Politics	No	$2.6k	79.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-45 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$2.6k	91.5¢
Will the Republican Party win the LA-06 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$2.2k	89.4¢
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-03 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$2.2k	86.7¢
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-19 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$2.0k	93.3¢
Will the Republican Party win the NY-03 House seat?	Politics	No	$1.9k	86.8¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.9k	84.0¢
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	Politics	No	$1.9k	81.0¢
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?	Politics	No	$1.8k	90.0¢
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	Tech	Anthropic	$1.8k	95.0¢
Andrew Tate Extradited to UK by Sep 30?	Politics	No	$1.7k	92.8¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in September?	Other	No	$1.7k	97.2¢

Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
Yes$30.1k @ 93.6¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?Geopolitics
No$28.0k @ 98.3¢
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
No$16.9k @ 97.4¢
Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$11.0k @ 84.0¢
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?Politics
No$10.9k @ 92.8¢
Will the Republican Party win the MD-01 House seat?Politics
Yes$7.3k @ 89.6¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in September?Other
No$5.4k @ 98.4¢
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
No$4.3k @ 94.8¢
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 56 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Politics
No$4.2k @ 97.5¢
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026Politics
No$3.7k @ 94.6¢
Republican House odds hit 20% by October 31?Politics
No$3.6k @ 89.6¢
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Politics
No$3.1k @ 94.3¢
Will the Democratic Party win the NM-03 House seat?Politics
Yes$3.1k @ 93.0¢
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$3.1k @ 88.1¢
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-13 House seat?Politics
Yes$3.1k @ 91.2¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in September?Other
No$2.9k @ 95.8¢
Will the Republicans win the Arizona governor race in 2026?Politics
No$2.9k @ 87.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the WA-03 House seat?Politics
Yes$2.8k @ 85.5¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?Politics
No$2.6k @ 79.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-45 House seat?Politics
Yes$2.6k @ 91.5¢
Will the Republican Party win the LA-06 House seat?Politics
Yes$2.2k @ 89.4¢
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-03 House seat?Politics
Yes$2.2k @ 86.7¢
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-19 House seat?Politics
Yes$2.0k @ 93.3¢
Will the Republican Party win the NY-03 House seat?Politics
No$1.9k @ 86.8¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$1.9k @ 84.0¢
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?Politics
No$1.9k @ 81.0¢
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?Politics
No$1.8k @ 90.0¢
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?Tech
Anthropic$1.8k @ 95.0¢
Andrew Tate Extradited to UK by Sep 30?Politics
No$1.7k @ 92.8¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in September?Other
No$1.7k @ 97.2¢