0xfae3…5228

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xfae330732d990ff4f670958d17ce3936853c5228
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+11.3pp

ROI

+72%

Win rate

50% @ 38.3¢

Brier

0.232

Resolved

349

Avg size

$40

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	48% (80/167)	+86%	167
Sports	73% (16/22)	-4%	22
Politics	29% (2/7)	-30%	7
Science	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Geopolitics	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Culture	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other167 bets
Hit rate
48% (80/167)
ROI
+86%
Sports22 bets
Hit rate
73% (16/22)
ROI
-4%
Politics7 bets
Hit rate
29% (2/7)
ROI
-30%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

49% hit · 98/199

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	$105	29.3¢	Lost
Instituto AC Córdoba vs. CA Boca Juniors: O/U 0.5	Over	$111	89.0¢	Won
Will Peter Newman finish third in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?	Yes	$43	48.9¢	Lost
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5	Over	$1	80.0¢	Won
Will Poland advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	$56	75.0¢	Won
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5	Over	$100	84.0¢	Lost
US Open: Alexander Shevchenko vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	Fokina	$100	85.0¢	Won
Iran strike on Qatar today?	No	$10	14.9¢	Lost
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu	Donna Vekic	$30	77.0¢	Won
Buenos Aires 2: Eduardo Ribeiro vs Pedro Martinez	Eduardo Ribeiro	$99	79.4¢	Won
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?	Yes	$100	50.0¢	Lost
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15?	Yes	$100	32.2¢	Won
Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope?	Yes	$296	3.5¢	Won
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?	No	$115	34.5¢	Lost
Will "Honey Don't" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $3.5m?	Yes	$35	10.2¢	Lost
ITF Nice: Clara Burel vs Jenny Lim	Clara Burel	$30	81.0¢	Won
Will "Honey Don't" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $3m?	Yes	$50	11.0¢	Lost
US Open: Francisco Comesana vs Alex Michelsen	Michelsen	$50	86.0¢	Lost
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5	Over	$101	80.0¢	Won
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Werder Bremen end in a draw?	No	$101	79.0¢	Won
Will there be no coalition by October 31?	Yes	$5	8.0¢	Lost
Will "28 Years Later: Bone Temple" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 18.5m and 21m?	Yes	$45	18.9¢	Lost
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Taylah Preston	Taylah Preston	$30	79.9¢	Lost
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?	No	$15	42.4¢	Lost
Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + D66 + CDA?	Yes	$5	8.0¢	Lost
Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-2.5) vs Arnaldi (+2.5)	Arnaldi	$82	86.4¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 88°F or higher on July 14?	Yes	$3	18.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 14?	No	$59	85.0¢	Won
Warriors vs. 76ers: O/U 224.5	Over	$1	55.0¢	Lost
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 18–25?	Yes	$10	4.9¢	Lost
Will "Freakier Friday" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $29m and $34m?	Yes	$100	41.6¢	Lost
Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?	Yes	$200	49.5¢	Lost
Will "Caught Stealing" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $10m?	Yes	$100	28.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 10?	No	$51	66.7¢	Won
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2025-08-23?	No	$100	86.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Stroke" during his announcement on September 2?	Yes	$7	9.0¢	Lost
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?	Yes	$13	52.5¢	Won
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell	Katie Volynets	$10	61.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on April 23?	No	$11	73.0¢	Lost
Will "Wicked: For Good" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 175m?	Yes	$1	2.6¢	Lost
US Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Amanda Anisimova	Sabalenka	$4	77.0¢	Won
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$41	32.0¢	Lost
Will South Korea presidential election winner get over 50% of votes?	No	$610	48.8¢	Won
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 112m and 123m?	Yes	$13	5.8¢	Lost
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale?	No	$10	11.0¢	Lost
Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05?	No	$50	69.0¢	Won
Will "Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 9m?	Yes	$56	11.1¢	Lost
League of Legends: LGD Gaming vs. EDward Gaming	EDward Gaming	$10	76.0¢	Won
Thailand strikes Cambodia by Friday?	No	$23	0.9¢	Lost
Sao Paulo Open: Eva Lys vs Nadia Podoroska	Nadia Podoroska	$11	55.0¢	Won

Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Lost
No$105 @ 29.3¢
Instituto AC Córdoba vs. CA Boca Juniors: O/U 0.5Won
Over$111 @ 89.0¢
Will Peter Newman finish third in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?Lost
Yes$43 @ 48.9¢
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5Won
Over$1 @ 80.0¢
Will Poland advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?Won
Yes$56 @ 75.0¢
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5Lost
Over$100 @ 84.0¢
US Open: Alexander Shevchenko vs Alejandro Davidovich FokinaWon
Fokina$100 @ 85.0¢
Iran strike on Qatar today?Lost
No$10 @ 14.9¢
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma RaducanuWon
Donna Vekic$30 @ 77.0¢
Buenos Aires 2: Eduardo Ribeiro vs Pedro MartinezWon
Eduardo Ribeiro$99 @ 79.4¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?Lost
Yes$100 @ 50.0¢
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15?Won
Yes$100 @ 32.2¢
Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope?Won
Yes$296 @ 3.5¢
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?Lost
No$115 @ 34.5¢
Will "Honey Don't" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $3.5m?Lost
Yes$35 @ 10.2¢
ITF Nice: Clara Burel vs Jenny LimWon
Clara Burel$30 @ 81.0¢
Will "Honey Don't" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $3m?Lost
Yes$50 @ 11.0¢
US Open: Francisco Comesana vs Alex MichelsenLost
Michelsen$50 @ 86.0¢
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5Won
Over$101 @ 80.0¢
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Werder Bremen end in a draw?Won
No$101 @ 79.0¢
Will there be no coalition by October 31?Lost
Yes$5 @ 8.0¢
Will "28 Years Later: Bone Temple" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 18.5m and 21m?Lost
Yes$45 @ 18.9¢
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Taylah PrestonLost
Taylah Preston$30 @ 79.9¢
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?Lost
No$15 @ 42.4¢
Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + D66 + CDA?Lost
Yes$5 @ 8.0¢
Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-2.5) vs Arnaldi (+2.5)Won
Arnaldi$82 @ 86.4¢
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 88°F or higher on July 14?Won
Yes$3 @ 18.0¢
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 14?Won
No$59 @ 85.0¢
Warriors vs. 76ers: O/U 224.5Lost
Over$1 @ 55.0¢
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 18–25?Lost
Yes$10 @ 4.9¢
Will "Freakier Friday" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $29m and $34m?Lost
Yes$100 @ 41.6¢
Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?Lost
Yes$200 @ 49.5¢
Will "Caught Stealing" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $10m?Lost
Yes$100 @ 28.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 10?Won
No$51 @ 66.7¢
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2025-08-23?Won
No$100 @ 86.0¢
Will Trump say "Stroke" during his announcement on September 2?Lost
Yes$7 @ 9.0¢
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?Won
Yes$13 @ 52.5¢
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly BirrellWon
Katie Volynets$10 @ 61.0¢
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on April 23?Lost
No$11 @ 73.0¢
Will "Wicked: For Good" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 175m?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.6¢
US Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Amanda AnisimovaWon
Sabalenka$4 @ 77.0¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$41 @ 32.0¢
Will South Korea presidential election winner get over 50% of votes?Won
No$610 @ 48.8¢
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 112m and 123m?Lost
Yes$13 @ 5.8¢
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale?Lost
No$10 @ 11.0¢
Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05?Won
No$50 @ 69.0¢
Will "Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 9m?Lost
Yes$56 @ 11.1¢
League of Legends: LGD Gaming vs. EDward GamingWon
EDward Gaming$10 @ 76.0¢
Thailand strikes Cambodia by Friday?Lost
No$23 @ 0.9¢
Sao Paulo Open: Eva Lys vs Nadia PodoroskaWon
Nadia Podoroska$11 @ 55.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Otzma win 8-9 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Politics	Yes	$108	35.2¢
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Politics	Yes	$53	25.5¢
Will US win 40-45% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Politics	Yes	$48	46.1¢

Will Otzma win 8-9 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Politics
Yes$108 @ 35.2¢
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Politics
Yes$53 @ 25.5¢
Will US win 40-45% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Politics
Yes$48 @ 46.1¢