0xfade…68cf

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xfadeac30d08d0910835c6871bdfd141cef3368cf
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

-5.4pp

ROI

+11%

Win rate

5% @ 10.3¢

Brier

0.038

Resolved

466

Avg size

$11

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	20% (8/41)	+54%	41
Sports	0% (0/7)	-100%	7
Politics	20% (1/5)	-36%	5
Tech	0% (0/3)	-100%	3
Geopolitics	0% (0/3)	-100%	3
Culture	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Crypto	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other41 bets
Hit rate
20% (8/41)
ROI
+54%
Sports7 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/7)
ROI
-100%
Politics5 bets
Hit rate
20% (1/5)
ROI
-36%
Tech3 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/3)
ROI
-100%
Geopolitics3 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/3)
ROI
-100%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

15% hit · 9/61

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
XRP Up or Down - January 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Up	$1	26.2¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	$0	1.0¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Down	$0	2.0¢	Lost
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$134	14.9¢	Lost
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR?	Yes	$178	13.5¢	Lost
Will Ousmane Dembélé finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	$91	5.0¢	Lost
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	$57	11.5¢	Lost
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	Yes	$72	14.0¢	Lost
Will the Patriots win the AFC Championship?	Yes	$30	28.2¢	Won
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	No	$19	17.0¢	Won
Will Solana reach $120 in February?	Yes	$5	47.0¢	Lost
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SX?	Yes	$60	8.0¢	Lost
Will Trump meet with Satya Nadella in January 2026?	Yes	$11	36.2¢	Won
Will Microsoft acquire TikTok?	Yes	$12	3.9¢	Lost
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	$25	8.3¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on September 3?	Yes	$21	42.0¢	Lost
Will Meta acquire TikTok?	Yes	$7	3.7¢	Lost
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	$219	14.0¢	Lost
Will the US lose jobs in January?	Yes	$73	6.4¢	Lost
Will Coco Gauff win the 2026 Women's Australian Open?	Yes	$145	10.6¢	Lost
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?	Yes	$245	5.9¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk / X (Twitter) acquire TikTok?	Yes	$19	4.6¢	Lost
No one announced as next James Bond?	No	$348	36.5¢	Lost
Will Houston win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?	Yes	$10	9.5¢	Lost
Will Branimir Jovanović be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$186	6.6¢	Won
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	No	$89	56.0¢	Lost
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$3	1.1¢	Lost
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?	Yes	$20	2.8¢	Lost
Will Freecs win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?	Yes	$4	0.9¢	Lost
Will Jessica Pegula win the 2026 Women's Australian Open?	Yes	$26	5.8¢	Lost
Football.Fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	$186	56.9¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?	No	$12	49.6¢	Won
Will Binance launch stock tokens in 2026?	No	$26	17.0¢	Lost
Will Emma Stone win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$2	0.7¢	Lost
Will Debí Tirar Más Fotos (Bad Bunny) win Album of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?	No	$107	42.8¢	Lost
Will Rose Byrne win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$12	8.6¢	Lost
Will Solana dip to $90 in January?	Yes	$2	0.3¢	Lost
Will T1 win Worlds 2026?	Yes	$3	1.4¢	Lost
Will the Eagles win the 2026 NFC Championship?	Yes	$43	19.0¢	Lost
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	Yes	$30	22.0¢	Lost
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,840 on the final trading day of January 2026?	No	$0	1.4¢	Lost
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Yes	$17	1.3¢	Lost
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$3	2.2¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 30-April 5?	Yes	$131	26.5¢	Lost
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Minnesota Twins	Minnesota Twins	$691	51.0¢	Won
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam?	No	$311	15.6¢	Lost
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $230 end of February?	No	$1	1.3¢	Lost
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	Yes	$232	2.4¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?	No	$11	69.0¢	Won

XRP Up or Down - January 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ETLost
Up$1 @ 26.2¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ETLost
Down$0 @ 1.0¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ETLost
Down$0 @ 2.0¢
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Lost
Yes$134 @ 14.9¢
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR?Lost
Yes$178 @ 13.5¢
Will Ousmane Dembélé finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Lost
Yes$91 @ 5.0¢
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?Lost
Yes$57 @ 11.5¢
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?Lost
Yes$72 @ 14.0¢
Will the Patriots win the AFC Championship?Won
Yes$30 @ 28.2¢
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionWon
No$19 @ 17.0¢
Will Solana reach $120 in February?Lost
Yes$5 @ 47.0¢
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SX?Lost
Yes$60 @ 8.0¢
Will Trump meet with Satya Nadella in January 2026?Won
Yes$11 @ 36.2¢
Will Microsoft acquire TikTok?Lost
Yes$12 @ 3.9¢
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Lost
Yes$25 @ 8.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on September 3?Lost
Yes$21 @ 42.0¢
Will Meta acquire TikTok?Lost
Yes$7 @ 3.7¢
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?Lost
Yes$219 @ 14.0¢
Will the US lose jobs in January?Lost
Yes$73 @ 6.4¢
Will Coco Gauff win the 2026 Women's Australian Open?Lost
Yes$145 @ 10.6¢
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?Lost
Yes$245 @ 5.9¢
Will Elon Musk / X (Twitter) acquire TikTok?Lost
Yes$19 @ 4.6¢
No one announced as next James Bond?Lost
No$348 @ 36.5¢
Will Houston win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?Lost
Yes$10 @ 9.5¢
Will Branimir Jovanović be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Won
Yes$186 @ 6.6¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?Lost
No$89 @ 56.0¢
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by March 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 1.1¢
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?Lost
Yes$20 @ 2.8¢
Will Freecs win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?Lost
Yes$4 @ 0.9¢
Will Jessica Pegula win the 2026 Women's Australian Open?Lost
Yes$26 @ 5.8¢
Football.Fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?Lost
No$186 @ 56.9¢
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?Won
No$12 @ 49.6¢
Will Binance launch stock tokens in 2026?Lost
No$26 @ 17.0¢
Will Emma Stone win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.7¢
Will Debí Tirar Más Fotos (Bad Bunny) win Album of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?Lost
No$107 @ 42.8¢
Will Rose Byrne win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?Lost
Yes$12 @ 8.6¢
Will Solana dip to $90 in January?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.3¢
Will T1 win Worlds 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 1.4¢
Will the Eagles win the 2026 NFC Championship?Lost
Yes$43 @ 19.0¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?Lost
Yes$30 @ 22.0¢
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,840 on the final trading day of January 2026?Lost
No$0 @ 1.4¢
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Lost
Yes$17 @ 1.3¢
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by March 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 2.2¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 30-April 5?Lost
Yes$131 @ 26.5¢
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Minnesota TwinsWon
Minnesota Twins$691 @ 51.0¢
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam?Lost
No$311 @ 15.6¢
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $230 end of February?Lost
No$1 @ 1.3¢
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?Lost
Yes$232 @ 2.4¢
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?Won
No$11 @ 69.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
No one announced as next James Bond?	Culture	No	$348	36.5¢
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam?	—	No	$311	15.6¢
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?	—	Yes	$244	5.9¢
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Sports	Yes	$219	14.0¢
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	Sports	Yes	$201	2.4¢
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR?	Tech	Yes	$178	13.5¢
Will Coco Gauff win the 2026 Women's Australian Open?	—	Yes	$145	10.6¢
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	—	Yes	$134	14.9¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	No	$134	16.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 30-April 5?	—	Yes	$131	28.0¢
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?	—	Yes	$124	20.0¢
Will Debí Tirar Más Fotos (Bad Bunny) win Album of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?	—	No	$107	42.8¢
Will Michigan State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?	—	Yes	$96	3.6¢
Will Ousmane Dembélé finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	Yes	$91	5.0¢
Will the US lose jobs in January?	—	Yes	$73	6.4¢
Will Abracadabra (Lady Gaga) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?	—	Yes	$73	6.8¢
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	—	Yes	$72	14.0¢
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Sports	Yes	$57	11.5¢
Will the Eagles win the 2026 NFC Championship?	—	Yes	$43	19.0¢
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?	—	Yes	$38	19.8¢
Will Jessica Pegula win the 2026 Women's Australian Open?	—	Yes	$26	5.8¢
Will Binance launch stock tokens in 2026?	—	No	$26	17.0¢
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$25	1.6¢
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Sports	Yes	$25	8.3¢
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?	—	Yes	$20	2.8¢
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$17	1.3¢
Will Microsoft acquire TikTok?	Geopolitics	Yes	$12	3.9¢
Will Houston win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?	—	Yes	$10	9.4¢
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $MARS?	Tech	Yes	$8	3.7¢
Will Meta acquire TikTok?	Geopolitics	Yes	$7	3.7¢

No one announced as next James Bond?Culture
No$348 @ 36.5¢
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam?—
No$311 @ 15.6¢
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?—
Yes$244 @ 5.9¢
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?Sports
Yes$219 @ 14.0¢
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?Sports
Yes$201 @ 2.4¢
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR?Tech
Yes$178 @ 13.5¢
Will Coco Gauff win the 2026 Women's Australian Open?—
Yes$145 @ 10.6¢
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?—
Yes$134 @ 14.9¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
No$134 @ 16.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 30-April 5?—
Yes$131 @ 28.0¢
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?—
Yes$124 @ 20.0¢
Will Debí Tirar Más Fotos (Bad Bunny) win Album of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?—
No$107 @ 42.8¢
Will Michigan State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?—
Yes$96 @ 3.6¢
Will Ousmane Dembélé finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
Yes$91 @ 5.0¢
Will the US lose jobs in January?—
Yes$73 @ 6.4¢
Will Abracadabra (Lady Gaga) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?—
Yes$73 @ 6.8¢
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?—
Yes$72 @ 14.0¢
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?Sports
Yes$57 @ 11.5¢
Will the Eagles win the 2026 NFC Championship?—
Yes$43 @ 19.0¢
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?—
Yes$38 @ 19.8¢
Will Jessica Pegula win the 2026 Women's Australian Open?—
Yes$26 @ 5.8¢
Will Binance launch stock tokens in 2026?—
No$26 @ 17.0¢
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$25 @ 1.6¢
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Sports
Yes$25 @ 8.3¢
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?—
Yes$20 @ 2.8¢
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Politics
Yes$17 @ 1.3¢
Will Microsoft acquire TikTok?Geopolitics
Yes$12 @ 3.9¢
Will Houston win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?—
Yes$10 @ 9.4¢
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $MARS?Tech
Yes$8 @ 3.7¢
Will Meta acquire TikTok?Geopolitics
Yes$7 @ 3.7¢