0xfa98…af7f

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xfa987202c408b769852eed69df92559a8b1baf7f
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+9.9pp

ROI

+8%

Win rate

60% @ 50.2¢

Brier

0.211

Resolved

228

Avg size

$41

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	54% (31/57)	+5%	57
Tech	67% (4/6)	+64%	6
Sports	50% (3/6)	+43%	6
Politics	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Crypto	50% (1/2)	+13%	2
Geopolitics	100% (1/1)	+27%	1
Business	100% (1/1)	+20%	1

Other57 bets
Hit rate
54% (31/57)
ROI
+5%
Tech6 bets
Hit rate
67% (4/6)
ROI
+64%
Sports6 bets
Hit rate
50% (3/6)
ROI
+43%
Politics2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+13%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+27%
Business1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+20%

Track record

55% hit · 41/75

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	No	$171	49.9¢	Lost
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	Yes	$60	37.5¢	Won
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1?	No	$71	71.0¢	Won
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1?	Yes	$37	24.5¢	Lost
Celtics vs. Knicks	Celtics	$440	44.0¢	Lost
North Korea missile test/launch by March 31?	Yes	$48	47.5¢	Lost
Will Shake Shack (SHAK) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$9	20.5¢	Lost
Will Shake Shack (SHAK) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	$122	74.9¢	Won
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	No	$62	61.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January?	No	$310	77.5¢	Lost
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?	No	$166	83.0¢	Won
Will the State of the Union be 120 minutes or longer?	No	$47	47.0¢	Won
Will the State of the Union be 120 minutes or longer?	Yes	$90	45.0¢	Lost
Bulls vs. Wizards	Bulls	$700	70.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in July?	No	$40	86.0¢	Won
Pacers vs. Nets	Pacers	$37	62.0¢	Won
Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$6	3.0¢	Won
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$12	12.0¢	Lost
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?	Yes	$34	68.0¢	Won
Will Villarreal CF win La Liga?	Yes	$10	0.3¢	Lost
Gemini 3.5 released by April 30?	No	$176	73.6¢	Won
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	Yes	$398	35.4¢	Won
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	Yes	$118	78.3¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025?	No	$170	85.0¢	Won
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	Yes	$40	40.0¢	Lost
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?	No	$150	30.0¢	Lost
Ethereum all time high in 2024?	Yes	$20	22.0¢	Lost
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$11	22.0¢	Won
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31?	Yes	$129	48.6¢	Lost
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$10	17.0¢	Lost
Will the State of the Union be 130 minutes or longer?	No	$70	70.0¢	Won
Will there be at least 1600 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?	No	$35	58.0¢	Won
Will there be at least 1600 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$87	43.5¢	Lost
Will Ethereum hit $4,250 by January 31, 2025?	Yes	$7	38.5¢	Lost
Solana above $240 on December 13?	Yes	$30	26.0¢	Lost
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$16	15.8¢	Won
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17?	No	$14	14.0¢	Lost
Maple Leafs vs. Islanders	Maple Leafs	$300	30.0¢	Lost
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Arizona Wildcats: O/U 164.5	Over	$520	52.0¢	Won
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	No	$62	62.0¢	Lost
Will Ethereum hit $4,000 by December 31?	Yes	$40	36.4¢	Won
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?	No	$42	21.0¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	$50	24.1¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$216	72.2¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	$1	7.0¢	Lost
Will there be at least 1400 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?	No	$14	14.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in November?	No	$161	89.2¢	Won
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31?	No	$28	46.3¢	Won
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$14	14.0¢	Lost
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	$84	84.0¢	Won

Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?Lost
No$171 @ 49.9¢
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?Won
Yes$60 @ 37.5¢
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1?Won
No$71 @ 71.0¢
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1?Lost
Yes$37 @ 24.5¢
Celtics vs. KnicksLost
Celtics$440 @ 44.0¢
North Korea missile test/launch by March 31?Lost
Yes$48 @ 47.5¢
Will Shake Shack (SHAK) beat quarterly earnings?Lost
No$9 @ 20.5¢
Will Shake Shack (SHAK) beat quarterly earnings?Won
Yes$122 @ 74.9¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Lost
No$62 @ 61.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January?Lost
No$310 @ 77.5¢
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?Won
No$166 @ 83.0¢
Will the State of the Union be 120 minutes or longer?Won
No$47 @ 47.0¢
Will the State of the Union be 120 minutes or longer?Lost
Yes$90 @ 45.0¢
Bulls vs. WizardsWon
Bulls$700 @ 70.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in July?Won
No$40 @ 86.0¢
Pacers vs. NetsWon
Pacers$37 @ 62.0¢
Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$6 @ 3.0¢
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$12 @ 12.0¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?Won
Yes$34 @ 68.0¢
Will Villarreal CF win La Liga?Lost
Yes$10 @ 0.3¢
Gemini 3.5 released by April 30?Won
No$176 @ 73.6¢
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?Won
Yes$398 @ 35.4¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?Won
Yes$118 @ 78.3¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025?Won
No$170 @ 85.0¢
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?Lost
Yes$40 @ 40.0¢
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?Lost
No$150 @ 30.0¢
Ethereum all time high in 2024?Lost
Yes$20 @ 22.0¢
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$11 @ 22.0¢
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? Lost
Yes$129 @ 48.6¢
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 17.0¢
Will the State of the Union be 130 minutes or longer?Won
No$70 @ 70.0¢
Will there be at least 1600 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?Won
No$35 @ 58.0¢
Will there be at least 1600 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$87 @ 43.5¢
Will Ethereum hit $4,250 by January 31, 2025?Lost
Yes$7 @ 38.5¢
Solana above $240 on December 13?Lost
Yes$30 @ 26.0¢
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$16 @ 15.8¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17?Lost
No$14 @ 14.0¢
Maple Leafs vs. IslandersLost
Maple Leafs$300 @ 30.0¢
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Arizona Wildcats: O/U 164.5Won
Over$520 @ 52.0¢
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?Lost
No$62 @ 62.0¢
Will Ethereum hit $4,000 by December 31?Won
Yes$40 @ 36.4¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?Lost
No$42 @ 21.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$50 @ 24.1¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$216 @ 72.2¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Lost
Yes$1 @ 7.0¢
Will there be at least 1400 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?Lost
No$14 @ 14.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in November?Won
No$161 @ 89.2¢
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31?Won
No$28 @ 46.3¢
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$14 @ 14.0¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?Won
Yes$84 @ 84.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Business	Yes	$163	81.5¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Politics	No	$139	69.5¢
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	Business	Yes	$79	79.0¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Economy	Yes	$70	70.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Business	Yes	$68	68.0¢
Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2027?	Crypto	Yes	$49	41.0¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$32	16.0¢
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH?	Tech	Yes	$18	36.0¢

Anthropic IPO before 2027?Business
Yes$163 @ 81.5¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Politics
No$139 @ 69.5¢
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?Business
Yes$79 @ 79.0¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Economy
Yes$70 @ 70.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Business
Yes$68 @ 68.0¢
Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2027?Crypto
Yes$49 @ 41.0¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Politics
Yes$32 @ 16.0¢
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH?Tech
Yes$18 @ 36.0¢