0xfa39…977f

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xfa394a598dbf573202a8286b45f512c7a383977f
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+4.9pp

ROI

+1920%

Win rate

8% @ 2.7¢

Brier

0.043

Resolved

858

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	22% (4/18)	+3814%	18
Crypto	13% (1/8)	+9%	8
Other	0% (0/7)	-100%	7
Geopolitics	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Tech	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Sports	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Politics18 bets
Hit rate
22% (4/18)
ROI
+3814%
Crypto8 bets
Hit rate
13% (1/8)
ROI
+9%
Other7 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/7)
ROI
-100%
Geopolitics2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

14% hit · 5/37

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by June 30?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$600	0.2¢	Lost
Will Matteo Salvini be the next Prime Minister of Italy?	Yes	$0	0.3¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June?	Yes	$100	0.1¢	Lost
Xi Jinping out by June 30?	Yes	$5	0.1¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	Yes	$51	0.1¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June?	Yes	$50	0.2¢	Lost
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$10	1.0¢	Lost
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June?	Yes	$2	0.2¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$9	0.9¢	Lost
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June?	No	$900	72.1¢	Won
Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	$26	0.4¢	Lost
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	$49	0.1¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June?	Yes	$100	0.1¢	Lost
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	Yes	$90	0.1¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$56	0.4¢	Lost
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?	Yes	$7	0.4¢	Lost
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$10	0.2¢	Lost
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?	No	$101	86.7¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June?	Yes	$3	0.1¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June?	Yes	$40	0.2¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $47 by end of June?	Yes	$2	0.2¢	Lost
Trump out as President by June 30?	Yes	$4	0.2¢	Lost
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	No	$976	1.5¢	Won
Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?	No	$10	86.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June?	Yes	$78	0.1¢	Lost
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?	No	$3	0.1¢	Lost
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30?	No	$25	0.1¢	Lost
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?	No	$50	0.1¢	Lost
Will Carlo Calenda be the next Prime Minister of Italy?	Yes	$0	0.3¢	Lost
Will Guido Crosetto be the next Prime Minister of Italy?	Yes	$0	0.3¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$286	71.5¢	Won
Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?	No	$7	0.3¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?	Yes	$1	1.0¢	Lost

Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by June 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$600 @ 0.2¢
Will Matteo Salvini be the next Prime Minister of Italy?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.3¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June?Lost
Yes$100 @ 0.1¢
Xi Jinping out by June 30?Lost
Yes$5 @ 0.1¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?Lost
Yes$51 @ 0.1¢
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June?Lost
Yes$50 @ 0.2¢
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 1.0¢
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.2¢
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$9 @ 0.9¢
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June?Won
No$900 @ 72.1¢
Netanyahu out by June 30?Lost
Yes$26 @ 0.4¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Lost
Yes$49 @ 0.1¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June?Lost
Yes$100 @ 0.1¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?Lost
Yes$90 @ 0.1¢
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$56 @ 0.4¢
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?Lost
Yes$7 @ 0.4¢
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 0.2¢
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?Won
No$101 @ 86.7¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June?Lost
Yes$3 @ 0.1¢
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June?Lost
Yes$40 @ 0.2¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $47 by end of June?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.2¢
Trump out as President by June 30?Lost
Yes$4 @ 0.2¢
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?Won
No$976 @ 1.5¢
Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?Won
No$10 @ 86.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June?Lost
Yes$78 @ 0.1¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Lost
No$3 @ 0.1¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30?Lost
No$25 @ 0.1¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?Lost
No$50 @ 0.1¢
Will Carlo Calenda be the next Prime Minister of Italy?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.3¢
Will Guido Crosetto be the next Prime Minister of Italy?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.3¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$286 @ 71.5¢
Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?Lost
No$7 @ 0.3¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.0¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?	Tech	Yes	$2.4k	77.0¢
Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by December 31?	Politics	No	$2.3k	88.4¢
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?	Politics	No	$1.9k	88.8¢
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$1.2k	86.2¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$1.1k	75.2¢
AI bubble burst in 2026?	Tech	No	$841	63.3¢
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	Politics	No	$798	81.3¢
Apple Vision Pro 2 released before 2027?	Tech	No	$780	84.4¢
Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?	Tech	Yes	$654	93.1¢
Trump out as President before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$607	10.6¢
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?	Tech	Yes	$588	38.8¢
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$550	94.7¢
Will Silvia Salis be the next Prime Minister of Italy?	Politics	No	$548	70.5¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$526	85.0¢
Will Roberto Vannacci be the next Prime Minister of Italy?	Politics	No	$524	81.3¢
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$490	6.4¢
New pandemic in 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$472	87.5¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$400	49.6¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Politics	Yes	$375	45.8¢
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	Crypto	No	$363	90.7¢
Ebola pandemic in 2026?	Science	No	$362	79.7¢
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	Tech	No	$354	33.0¢
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$339	72.1¢
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$335	28.5¢
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	Politics	Yes	$325	10.5¢
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$303	75.7¢
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31?	Politics	No	$300	95.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$299	14.9¢
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027?	Politics	No	$275	77.7¢
Iran Nuke before 2027?	Politics	No	$272	87.5¢

Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?Tech
Yes$2.4k @ 77.0¢
Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by December 31?Politics
No$2.3k @ 88.4¢
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?Politics
No$1.9k @ 88.8¢
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$1.2k @ 86.2¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$1.1k @ 75.2¢
AI bubble burst in 2026?Tech
No$841 @ 63.3¢
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?Politics
No$798 @ 81.3¢
Apple Vision Pro 2 released before 2027?Tech
No$780 @ 84.4¢
Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?Tech
Yes$654 @ 93.1¢
Trump out as President before 2027?Politics
Yes$607 @ 10.6¢
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?Tech
Yes$588 @ 38.8¢
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?Politics
No$550 @ 94.7¢
Will Silvia Salis be the next Prime Minister of Italy?Politics
No$548 @ 70.5¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$526 @ 85.0¢
Will Roberto Vannacci be the next Prime Minister of Italy?Politics
No$524 @ 81.3¢
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$490 @ 6.4¢
New pandemic in 2026?Geopolitics
No$472 @ 87.5¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$400 @ 49.6¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HousePolitics
Yes$375 @ 45.8¢
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?Crypto
No$363 @ 90.7¢
Ebola pandemic in 2026?Science
No$362 @ 79.7¢
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?Tech
No$354 @ 33.0¢
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$339 @ 72.1¢
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$335 @ 28.5¢
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?Politics
Yes$325 @ 10.5¢
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?Geopolitics
No$303 @ 75.7¢
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31?Politics
No$300 @ 95.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$299 @ 14.9¢
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027?Politics
No$275 @ 77.7¢
Iran Nuke before 2027?Politics
No$272 @ 87.5¢