← Smart money
0xf9a2…a79a
ProfitableEdge
-2.0pp
ROI
+4%
Win rate
30% @ 31.7¢
Brier
0.187
Resolved
3016
Avg size
$67
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 37% (127/343) | -20% | 343 |
| Sports | 14% (7/49) | -46% | 49 |
| Politics | 39% (15/38) | +114% | 38 |
| Crypto | 73% (8/11) | +237% | 11 |
| Geopolitics | 14% (1/7) | -33% | 7 |
| Culture | 100% (3/3) | +167% | 3 |
| Tech | 0% (0/2) | -100% | 2 |
- Other343 bets
- Hit rate
- 37% (127/343)
- ROI
- -20%
- Sports49 bets
- Hit rate
- 14% (7/49)
- ROI
- -46%
- Politics38 bets
- Hit rate
- 39% (15/38)
- ROI
- +114%
- Crypto11 bets
- Hit rate
- 73% (8/11)
- ROI
- +237%
- Geopolitics7 bets
- Hit rate
- 14% (1/7)
- ROI
- -33%
- Culture3 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (3/3)
- ROI
- +167%
- Tech2 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/2)
- ROI
- -100%
Track record
36% hit · 161/453- No$2 @ 75.0¢
- South Africa$0 @ 5.0¢
- Will the Cardinals win the season series against the 49ers during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?LostYes$49 @ 11.0¢
- Yes$183 @ 32.8¢
- No$7 @ 35.7¢
- No$63 @ 63.0¢
- Over$914 @ 78.0¢
- Edas Butvilas$774 @ 43.0¢
- Lorenzo Sonego$489 @ 56.0¢
- Yes$354 @ 15.1¢
- AVS Futebol$30 @ 41.0¢
- FC Porto$101 @ 58.0¢
- Ben Shelton$256 @ 54.4¢
- Eva Lys$61 @ 18.0¢
- Los Angeles Dodgers$715 @ 55.0¢
- David Goffin$1 @ 35.0¢
- Rio Noguchi$41 @ 26.0¢
- No$212 @ 53.0¢
- Feyenoord Rotterdam$14 @ 15.9¢
- No$28 @ 74.0¢
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol$28 @ 61.0¢
- Yes$922 @ 14.9¢
- No$1 @ 54.0¢
- Chicago White Sox$55 @ 37.0¢
- No$92 @ 86.0¢
- No$41 @ 61.0¢
- Al Okhdood SC$26 @ 31.0¢
- Yes$395 @ 39.0¢
- Will the announcers say "Goal" 60+ times during the Switzerland vs Colombia FIFA World Cup Match?LostNo$11 @ 26.0¢
- No$102 @ 9.5¢
- Makhmudov$467 @ 16.5¢
- Robin Montgomery$223 @ 50.0¢
- No$1.7k @ 59.0¢
- Yes$749 @ 12.0¢
- Yes$659 @ 24.5¢
- Under$930 @ 62.0¢
- Yes$214 @ 3.1¢
- No$87 @ 31.0¢
- Prenga$490 @ 7.0¢
- No$13 @ 11.0¢
- No$94 @ 2.6¢
- Yes$603 @ 22.8¢
- No$339 @ 6.8¢
- Eyüpspor$391 @ 23.0¢
- Yes$220 @ 44.0¢
- Yes$43 @ 20.0¢
- NAC Breda$74 @ 19.0¢
- Yes$588 @ 32.0¢
- Miami Marlins$896 @ 35.0¢
- Felix Auger-Aliassime$309 @ 68.0¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Sports | Yes | $4.5k | 23.5¢ |
| Will any Moroccan city host the final of the 2030 FIFA World Cup? | — | Yes | $751 | 15.9¢ |
| Will Kraken be first to list tokenized stocks in the US? | Crypto | Yes | $242 | 41.0¢ |
| Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026 | Crypto | Yes | $210 | 24.3¢ |
| Will Mykola Kuleba win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Politics | Yes | $117 | 9.0¢ |
| Will Robinhood be first to list tokenized stocks in the US? | Crypto | Yes | $101 | 46.0¢ |
| Will FIFA Sell Equity in the World Cup in 2026? | Sports | Yes | $63 | 21.0¢ |
| Will Robinhood be first to list tokenized stocks in the US? | Crypto | No | $63 | 53.0¢ |
- Yes$4.5k @ 23.5¢
- Yes$751 @ 15.9¢
- Yes$242 @ 41.0¢
- Yes$210 @ 24.3¢
- Yes$117 @ 9.0¢
- Yes$101 @ 46.0¢
- Yes$63 @ 21.0¢
- No$63 @ 53.0¢