0xf968…3019

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xf968cd260f93e465a7814e2bd0409939f3663019
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+25.6pp

ROI

+10%

Win rate

66% @ 39.9¢

Brier

0.245

Resolved

Avg size

$16

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	55% (6/11)	+9%	11
Politics	100% (9/9)	+107%	9
Geopolitics	25% (1/4)	-34%	4
Tech	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other11 bets
Hit rate
55% (6/11)
ROI
+9%
Politics9 bets
Hit rate
100% (9/9)
ROI
+107%
Geopolitics4 bets
Hit rate
25% (1/4)
ROI
-34%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

64% hit · 16/25

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	No	$30	82.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$92	77.1¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$2	0.1¢	Lost
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	$21	17.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	No	$65	87.9¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$30	83.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	$10	33.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?	No	$7	36.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	$50	87.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?	No	$39	22.4¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?	Yes	$4	7.8¢	Lost
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?	No	$40	40.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	$11	28.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	$21	70.7¢	Won
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	$51	57.0¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$5	4.3¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	No	$8	22.4¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?	No	$17	83.5¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$10	8.5¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	$13	65.0¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	No	$31	56.3¢	Won
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	No	$2	0.1¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	No	$30	86.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026?	No	$5	35.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	$18	8.4¢	Lost

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?Won
No$30 @ 82.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$92 @ 77.1¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.1¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Lost
Yes$21 @ 17.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?Won
No$65 @ 87.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
No$30 @ 83.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Lost
Yes$10 @ 33.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?Won
No$7 @ 36.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?Won
No$50 @ 87.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?Won
No$39 @ 22.4¢
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 7.8¢
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?Lost
No$40 @ 40.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Won
No$11 @ 28.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Won
No$21 @ 70.7¢
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?Won
Yes$51 @ 57.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 4.3¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?Won
No$8 @ 22.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?Won
No$17 @ 83.5¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 8.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?Won
No$13 @ 65.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?Won
No$31 @ 56.3¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?Lost
No$2 @ 0.1¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?Won
No$30 @ 86.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026?Won
No$5 @ 35.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?Lost
Yes$18 @ 8.4¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?	Politics	Yes	$2	1.0¢

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?Politics
Yes$2 @ 1.0¢